WrigleyField 22

Part of it was I am trending towards wanting a guy with HC experience. None of the first time HC excite me that much, though like I said, Quinn was the runner up in this scenario. I'm not opposed to first timers as a hard and fast rule, just none speak to me here. Another former HC I thought about was Hue Jackson. Beyond those two things Del Rios reign in Jacksonville struck me as a reign that put together some really competitive teams in a tough division and fairly balanced. Then the wheels fell apart at the ownership level it seems which hurt the team, got him fired and they still haven't recovered. And I think he's done pretty well with Denvers D. Then the last thing was his Balt connections which should provide plenty of solid coaching connections, and that seems to matter when assembling a staff. I brought up Fox just trying to hit the lowest comparable of "second time D head coach finds success". Ultimately that may not mean much, I'll admit, and is coincidence. If we get that elite QB having a coach who can put together a good D on less resources is appealing to me though, rather than committing a majority of cap and coaching resources to one side. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I know it's still cold for southerners but this is actually really beautiful weather. Maybe as nice as the game you beat us last year. Anyways I'm hoping for a Brees-Stills, Cutler-Jeffery shootout. 50 targets each way should do. 3 TDs a piece with a win to NO. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'd go Brees, but who knows. I need Brees and Jeffery to out score Bennett and Forte by about 20... Should be a good one I hope. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I can walk there and it still doesn't really entice me. I'll watch but from the comfort of my couch, chili, and not $8 beer. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Two years is still pretty early. Only guy I've really given up on from the 13/14 draft is Greene. He can be a ST but I think that's his ceiling. Bostic, Ego, Sutton have all shown some flashes. We knew Leno and Wilson were projects and Wilsons injury didn't help that. Vereen is basically what I thought he would be as a rookie. Jones has surpassed expectations (at least relative to being undrafted, he did seemingly have a higher grade going in). And as much as spending a pick on ODonnel was stupid he clearly has the physical talent but needs to put it together consistently. So a little light overall, and I tend to think the results would be a little better with better coaching (which is granted on Emery). There is still a lot unanswered with those two groups but if at the time your draft picks hit FA you are retaining and putting about half to good use you've done a good job (I think this is roughly the standard Ozzie Newsome uses and he's pretty well regarded as far as draft GMs). Obviously there's a lot of room for interpretation (ie you can't bat 50% and have all backups), but that's probably a good general goal. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Well I think I'm gonna hold off a detailed player portion of my off season plan. But I think it's fairly straightforward and I've mentioned in pieces before. And it doesn't really change much regardless of the FO moves. Should have at around 20-25M in cap space to use where I'd want to get at least a couple DBs. Possibly a C if you feel DLP cannot be your stop gap starter. Only one young center with solid experience, and it was a Chiefs pick from Emery's time there, so if Emery is still the GM it wouldn't surprise me. Otherwise the young FA centers are inexperienced. So you aren't going to get any younger than DLP unless you are willing to take basically a first time starter. So no matter what it probably isn't a cost issue and you have to decide between inexperienced youth or experienced and aging. Top three rounds in the draft I'd like to see defense twice and OL. Probably leaning towards the front 7 for the D as I'd put more of the FA focus on DBs. Though at least one young DB in the later rounds would be nice. Day three is just BPA though. Either in the draft or among FA I'd try to bring in a speed slot WR/KR. Someone to be a solid three and form a strong 5 receiver group along with Marshall, Jeffery, Bennett, Wilson. Wouldn't expect to break the bank in FA here, but look for undervalued guy. Even would consider a trade here giving up our 4th or a later 2016 pick. Look for a failed number one guy who would benefit from the attention paid to Marshall and Jeffery. Thinking along the lines of Eddie Royal in Denver. In fact overall, team speed would be an emphasis. Not predicting anything crazy with current roster like trades or surprise cuts (no money to really be saved with cuts). Bring back Paea and no one else of major significance. Bye to Briggs, Williams, Garza, Conte. Most likely bye to Tillman though if he was unsigned as of June 1 I'd think about bringing him back at the minimum. As for the first 8 parts of my plan that overhauled the FO and coaching staff, I think it's pretty flexible depending on how deep the axe goes. One adjustment I might make though if Trestman stays is with defense, and I'd bring in Wade Phillips and retain DL/LB coaches. Obviously if Trestman stays it complicates the OC portion, so no one as qualified as Philbin is realistic. However the backup options I mentioned could still be possible in a shared offense type scenario, though if Trestman isn't running the offense fully not sure what his purpose is supposed to be. Still if that is the case replicating Kromer's current role with a existing OL coach looking for that coordinator role may be the plan as well. Not my preferred plan for sure. However if Trestman is gone but Emery stays, I'd do something very similar if not exactly that same with the coaching staff. And in this case basically accelerate Steins role in taking over operations from Phillips. Phillips reassignment will be to focus solely on improving our stadium situation again- added seats, more suites, ability to host a SB, etc. His time would be very valuable here and Stein already has in increased league presence that past several years, so it's just adding some of the internal executive roles. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

More or less unchanged then based on projections.

Part Six - Defensive staff. Obviously we have a defensive coach now. Thus he'll have a heavy hand on the defense. Defense assistants are same deal as offensive assistants. There is a twist. There won't be a full "defensive coordinator". Del Rio will call defensive players. However he'll tab two top assistants as Run Defense and Pass defense coordinators. You could call one of them Defensive coordinator, but it wouldn't change much. You might need to in order to hire away one of them. Current staff: Hoke is gone. Even though he was at one time pretty highly thought of, no assistant survives two HC. So are Pasqualoni and Herring. I could imagine a scenario they stay on, but this won't be the one. Desai gone. Harris and Hurtt stay. Passing Game Coordinator/ DB Coach. Cory Undlin. Currently Del Rios DB coach and has a long history with him. Running Defense Coordinator / DL Coach Karl Dunbar. A Former Bears DL Coach who did strong work with Tommie Harris and Tank Johnson. He'll be jobless when Rex is canned in New York. Bring him in to continue where Pasquanoli left off. Del Rio does have a mutual connection with Rex Ryan (served as D assistants together in Balt) LB Coach Honestly just tossing curve balls at this point. Aging DC of Michigan Wolverines, Greg Mattison decides to try his hand in the NFL again rather than stick in the college game. Another mutual connection to Balt. Also I kind of like Jake Ryan as a third round candidate in the draft, so hey, cool. And I had to get a least one college hire. Hurtt is asst D Line coach. Harris is asst DB coach/safeties. Hire a couple defensive QC guys. Part Seven : Special Teams. Special Team Coordinator. Brock Olivo currently Asst ST coach in KC. He has ST coordinator experience at lower levels and has spent the past year under the best ST coach in the league? Good enough for me. And since Asst ST coordinator is up there with QC coaches, I'll just retain Dwayne Stukes, because [expletive] it.

Part Five of my Offseason Plan Part One: Bill Polian - President of Football Operations Part Two: Tom Heckert - General Manager Part Three: Chris Polian - Dir Pro Personnel; Adam Peters - Dir of College Scouting; Cliff Stein - retained VP of operations Part Four: Jack Del Rio - Head Coach Offensive Coaching staff. This is going to be my first speculative hire. It has two requirements. 1) Joe Philbin is fired as HC of Miami 2) Tom Clements takes some HC interviews, but stays as OC of Green Bay (thus not opening up a natural OC spot for Philbin). Yep, we're hiring former GB OC and Miami HC Joe Philbin. Obviously was OC during Rodgers early years and put up some great offenses there. While he hasn't been great in Miami, I think he's done well this year utilizing Tannehill's strengths. Any team would be lucky to have him as an OC (even though he wasn't a play caller in GB). Offensive Assistants - On black Monday when Emery is canned, Trestman, Kromer, Tucker, and DeCamillis will be canned. Any other assistant will be kept on if they are under contract and it will be up to the new staff to make a decision on. NOT a Marenilli situation, the new HC has full autonomy. You don't hold back letting anyone take a lateral move if they want it, hoping they'll save you the salary hit. Peete (RB) and Groh (WR) will stay. Cavanaugh (QB) will be let go or allowed to leave. The most directly Trestman guys - the CFL guys (Meyer-OL, Bischoff-TE, Nugent and Walsh QC) are all let go. At QB Coach, Philbin brings his current QB coach in Miami, Zac Taylor. For OL option one is an attempt to rob the current OL coach and former Philbin colleague, James Campen. To get the move you have to give a promotion as Run game coordinator and assistant head coach. If GB still blocks, plan two is the current asst- OL coach under Philbin, Jack Bicknell Jr. I'm not gonna try and predict something as lowly as Quality Control coaches. TE Coach, Philbin also takes with him his TE coach, Dan Campbell. Failing Philbin there are plenty of experienced offensive coaches not currently serving as OC I'd look at (Rob Chudzinki, Rick Dennison, Bill Callahan, Scott Linehan). Not aware of any "up and comers" that are hot OC names. So your offensive Coaching staff (highly speculative) OC - Joe Philbin, OL/Run Cord. - James Campen , QB - Zac Taylor, RB - Skip Peete, WR - Mike Groh, TE- Dan Campbell. Add about 2-3 other assistants. Next up, defensive coaches.

We are an old team, both in average age and in Football Outsiders Weighted Snap Average Age (number one last year and we'll be near top this year, though they don't keep this up to date in season it appears). However, in context of where we're heading, we're in a natural position to get younger and better. Here are the biggest contributors to our rosters age this year so far 63 Roberto Garza 55 Lance Briggs 90 Jay Ratliff 69 Jared Allen 58 D.J. Williams 6 Jay Cutler 26 Tim Jennings 15 Brandon Marshall 74 Jermon Bushrod 88 Dante Rosario 21 Ryan Mundy Those 11 guys are a combination of old and playing a lot of snaps. Only guy of note missing is Peanut who we would have expected to contribute to our aging problem, but didn't due to injury. Looking at the list, there's a couple really obvious answers to get younger that would be supported by just about anyone. Garza, Briggs, Williams, Rosario (Mundy borderline). Ratfliff is still productive, but most would support a lessened role with the young DT contributing more. Same thing with Allen regarding a reduced role. Both of these guys are very clearly on 2015 windows. But we won't get anything moving them either. Bushrod is on a boderline 2015/16 window, but you don't sub in OL so you won't partially reduce his snaps and again won't hold trade value. Cutler isn't really old in QB terms. Just leaves Marshall and Jennings as aging guys that we are counting on in a meaningful way. We are set up for a natural progression to get younger, so it just comes down to adding the best possible players with those replacements, and they're likely to be young contributors. Refreshing the roster and trying to win just go hand in hand. There isn't a tear down effect really needed. If there was ever confusion that letting guys like Briggs walk was a "tear down" as opposed trying to improve the team, I'm not sure what to say. If anyone wants to see my analysis on our age, let me know and I'll post it to a google doc.

That makes no sense whatsoever. Sure it does. There would be no better way to punt next season than bring back these coaches. It's not losing on purpose, it's making massive overhauls. Cut ties with old guys and bring in a boatload of youth. Hell, that can result in better records during those seasons than the ones that precipitated them. Oooh you mean exactly what they've been doing, or are you talking about getting rid of Emery picks just cuz they're Emery picks? There's a ton of old guys everyone's talking about moving on from... They're the bad old ones. There are some old guys that are still good. So you're dumping them in favor for "young guys". You've established you don't believe in "developmental guys" which is like everyone out of the top 3 rounds at least. And you're not gonna get much in the way of top three picks from our available players and there aren't generally super young FAs though if there are, they will obviously help us win and signing them is opposite of punting. I mean what is this punt you're even talking about? Change for the sake of change? There's very little cap to gain by walking away from guys currently. I mean like you could cut someone like Benett, but again what's the point? He can help us in 2015 and 2016. Go look at our roster and our cap (I recommend over the cap). We've been overhauling and bringing in a buttload of youth. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I was thinking it was 50/50 before. Every story like this tilts it a little more in our favor, but I think I'll question it until I see it. Definitely Emery's decision regarding Trestman will say a lot about my confidence in him going forward.

Don't be too concerned Soul. While his first Bears draft busted, I think the past two improved (even despite a few dumb things like drafting a punter). Looking back at his two Chiefs drafts and Falcons drafts there isn't a huge bust rate. Worst pick was Baldwin (and I think he's a total Emery WR), but you can view those drafts pretty favorably IMO. He won't set us back in the draft.

Why didn't you start with Lester being better and Samardzija not wanting to sign with the Cubs? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Anyways if you support a one year punt, the best option would be keeping the coaching staff, or at least Trestman. Emery ain't gonna screw up the personnel portion this offseason, but if he sticks with Trestman there's a decent chance 2016 is the new regime. Could we go for it then or will we have to concede 2016 so the new regime gets their obligatory tank job out of the way. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Why is this? As doom and gloom as everyone is on this staff we should have even less wins if there was no talent base on the roster. Punting in the NFL is just hardly ever advisable. Realistically who are you giving up for 2015 who wouldn't also help you if the goal was to compete in 2016? Only guy that really pops into my mind if Forte and I don't think you'll get a great return for an aging RB. You could not use all your cap space... But I'm not sure what that accomplishes. As long as you don't leverage future space too much being aggressive in FA is good. Overall I just don't see where punting now helps down the road. NFL should basically be always "dual fronts" to steal from Theo and you don't have to take from one side to accomplish the other. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk There's nothing wrong with one off dump jobs and they often happen when front office and/or coaching staffs overhaul. You can't be duel fronts every year. Can you show me where a one off dump has really helped turn the tides? Because I can show you where a new regime utilized the existing personnel and did same year turnarounds. Probably best recent example being the Chiefs who looked pretty dire, but sure enough actually had a pretty solid base that they made the right moves to (a huge part of that being bringing in the right coaches). Not every turnaround is going to even be that quick and successful, but if you stepped up to 8-8 and then made a second year jump, how would that be different that a dump off that tanked a year first? Now taking all that into consideration can you name who these players are on the Bears who would return a good value and are not likely to help in 2016 but would in 2015? One year dump offs can be advisable but usually it's the case with an aging team with cap problems. This is not the Bears of 2015. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Not saying you are wrong, but if you strongly feel Emery isn't the future like I do, then you are hoping he makes as few moves as possible. Especially moves with long term consequences. I can appreciate that, but he's going to make your picks no matter what. He hasn't shown a propensity to make risky long term bets on free agents. This isn't MLB where you'll get sacked with a 5 year guaranteed deal. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Why is this? As doom and gloom as everyone is on this staff we should have even less wins if there was no talent base on the roster. Punting in the NFL is just hardly ever advisable. Realistically who are you giving up for 2015 who wouldn't also help you if the goal was to compete in 2016? Only guy that really pops into my mind if Forte and I don't think you'll get a great return for an aging RB. You could not use all your cap space... But I'm not sure what that accomplishes. As long as you don't leverage future space too much being aggressive in FA is good. Overall I just don't see where punting now helps down the road. NFL should basically be always "dual fronts" to steal from Theo and you don't have to take from one side to accomplish the other. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Next up on my offseason plan is HC. Previously : Bill Polian -pres; Tom Heckert - GM. And rounded out the FO. I think there's some strong choices here and that will be the case even if we don't revamp the FO. In the current plan we're in an interesting place because with the FO turnover we may be behind other teams with vacancies. While that's not great it may mean we get a crack at current coordinators who will be busy with playoff runs and skip available earlier interviews. I narrowed the large field down to two DC. One a former HC and the other a first timer. Both would be good hires, but I'm making the call to keep the theme of experience going. The runner up is Dan Quinn, DC of Seattle. Trying to copy cat the Seahawks D is tempting, though that's not necessarily working out for Bradley. The winner: Jack Del Rio. Overall he posted a losing record in 9 seasons with Jacksonville that was particularly bad near the end. He coached two real good squads in particular though and they were not Defense only teams. So he's being brought in not just to fix the D but be a CEO type coach. He fits that mold of basically John Fox type who gets a second HC chance. The number of successful defensive background head coaches coaching teams with good offenses is interesting indeed. He'll have to bring in strong coordinators, which will be my next topic. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Agreed, but there are too many teams that are only a serviceable QB away from the playoffs that the Bears would only be compounding their incompetence by not at least fielding offers for him. Emery (assuming he keeps his job) should be on the phone with StL, Buffalo, or Houston ASAP. And Tennessee, Washington. The problem with that is if not Cutler. ..... then who? Not picking high enough for Mariota or Winston. Absolutely nobody else in this draft class is worth a top 10 pick. And only Hundley is worth even a roster spot in this draft IMO. If u sign a QB (from a weak FA class as always), then you are paying Cutler 9.5 mil to go away (dead space from trade) AND another QB to play, which would probably end up eating up a lot of the money you save (12.5M) by cutting him if you want someone worthwhile (Bradford, Sanchez, Hoyer, Mallett). Not to mention, you are taking a step back in talent from Cutler to any of those FAs, any draft pick or any reasonable traded QB. Yea I agree with most of this. I think Cook if he declares is worthy of a late first pick but looking doubtful he does. Not a great draft to get our next QB. I didn't think Cutlers cap hit would be that big in a trade though, I think just the pro-rated portion of his 5M signing bonus. The timing likely won't work out well anyways though. Very likely a trade occurs after FA so you can just roll savings into say Suh. Definitely like Hoyer the most of the FA class. Overall though it is a tough situation to deal Cutler and still put a decent foot forward for 2015. You're basically on hold until you get in the right spot to draft a guy where the road is littered with Brady Quinn's and the like. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Gotta get Washington and NYJ on the phone too. I trust those organizations to help drive up the cost if we're dealing Cutler. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Hey if the McCaskeys can get out of a couple contracts free of penalty that may give them the bump they need to clean slate. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

could use a fresh coat of ms paint. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

They are doing a full Jim Hendry rebuild. I don't mean that entirely as an insult. Looks to me like they're essentially propping open the existing window for 2-3 years while they assemble something resembling a farm system. And there's really nothing wrong with that, as the alternative would be to shop Sale and Abreu, which would really bring in a hail, but decimate their fan base. As long as they have the cash from JR to do both at once, absolutely. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Next up rounding out the Front Office- Cliff Stein will be kept around being the lead contract negotiator. He'll get added administrative type roles, continue to work with the league office and be the number two man on most matters that aren't related to player evaluation. Long term he could be a president in the traditional set up where your president isn't involved with talent evaluation and personnel matters. Other FO positions are pretty hard. Sometimes hard to know who actually does well at what. One thing we know is in the NFL guys hire people they know: Director of Pro Personnel - Chris Polian. Would I hire him? No idea, but daddy probably would try and he does have experience. I'm putting my head in Bills head right now Director of College Scouting- Adam Peters, currently Assts Director of College Scouting in Denver after 8 years of scouting experience. Is he good? Hard to know, but he has a connection to Heckert and this is a promotion. Works for me. I won't cover any other FO positions. Scouts all stay, etc. So next up will be Head Coach... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk