WrigleyField 22

Graduated from my Alma mater (first pro player ever from there) so I ain't even mad. He also had a really nice TD saving tackle on the earlier Robinson 60 yd catch that ended up being called back. Did u go to Naz? I live a couple blocks from there. Julian dates the girl across the street. Great kid. Yep. I've only heard great things about him.

Graduated from my Alma mater (first pro player ever from there) so I ain't even mad. He also had a really nice TD saving tackle on the earlier Robinson 60 yd catch that ended up being called back.

I saw they were down 7 with under 30 left and just assumed they would lose, so I didn't watch. Bummer. And it didn't even require Charlotte totally choking on the FTs. Zach just couldn't miss.

Game prediction I drink more beers than points scored.

Add teams to Orlando, Jacksonville, and Pensacola, the relegate all of Florida to AA.

Worst city uni yet

Its a good assumption, but he'll at least be back in training camp next year.

THE GREATEST ATHELTE EVER TO COME OUT OF PRINCETON. Seriously, what would Horsted have to do to make you believe you could go into 2020 with a Burton/Horsted/Holtz/Braunecker/etc TE group and not make a big FA signing? 24 catches for 200 yards? That's 64/533 pace.

My side is the family is doing an early Thanksgiving this Sunday. So I get to pretend the Bears will have played on three straight Thanksgivings.

I'm not sure what your conclusion is, keep Mitch or ditch mitch? I think unless you are in love with a QB that drops to you in the second round this draft, you have to use those picks to revamp the o-line.Even if Mitch continues to tank you at least have the building blocks to surround the QB who takes over after Mitch leaves, HC and GM be damned. Reaching for a QB in this draft would be a huge mistake. I think you have to ditch Mitch. While I don't think he would be as bad next year as he's been this year, he's definitely not the answer. Best case is a 2018 repeat where he figures out how to use his legs again. But I think he's lost the support of his teammates. They obviously won't say anything publicly, but you can see the body language on the field. Lackluster effort for high throws, stopping on routes when he misses them flash open, nobody moving down the field when he scrambles out of a pocket that he could have stood in. Nagy clearly can't do what he wants with the offense, and he's getting flack from the press and fans about his offense and playcalling. I just don't see Nagy being very willing to go into 2020 with his future tied to a QB that he has to dumb down his playbook for. Because after all, if Trubisky is here again and the offense struggles again with a half-filled play sheet....the offensive minded head coach is going to certainly take a lot of the heat for not having a good offense and not developing a talented QB. I don't think Pace can go to ownership after 2 bad years and say, "Hey, I built up the rest of the team, let me get 1 more shot at QB" when the QB he picked is the reason for 2 bad years. And i don't think Nagy has been good enough to survive a GM change. So if the plan is to ditch Mitch do you think there is any trade market for him? I'm not sure why this is, but according to OTC, he is cap neutral as a cut (all dead money), but would actually garner about 4M cap savings as a trade, at least. If there is literally no cap benefit to cutting him it seems highly unlikely that they'll just cut lose in March. So he'd be in camp and presumably still good enough to not get beat out by 2-3 other guys and sticking around as the backup and its the same cap effect to cut or keep.

While the Bears are far from an enviable position, the NFL is weird enough and there is enough talent still that a major rebuild seems silly. They're gonna have to role a few dice in areas, but even good teams are often patchworking solutions somewhere. They just need to identify a better glue to hold their fraying patches together. Also they have to hope guys like Leno and Burton are more "fluky bad season" than they are "stick a fork in them"

Or it can be an Al Davis/Mark Davis situation where the terrible haircutted spawn are just as bad as the father Hey, don't look now but the Raiders are semi-respectable this season. Oakland has flirted with bouts of respectability before. The bad hair equilibrium will correct itself soon enough.

Obviously he has capacity to improve, but is it "improve as a play caller or bust"? Could he just give up the part and be a successful head coach still? Going back to his short stint calling plays in KC theres a pretty established history of questioning his play calling acumen. It's enough to sink him by next year at this point if he doesn't show that improvement quickly.

As bad as Mitch has been, I'm not sure how many unquestionable upgradres there are. I think the likes of Mariota, Winston, Dalton, and Keenum would all be coming into something of a competition, even if they were lined up with starters on day 1 of training camp. Bridgewater would probably be the only realistic one of available FA. Obviously no rookie would either.

Was thinking of what could come out of Nagy... True or False: Jason Garrett is Matt Nagy's upper ceiling as a coach. Garrett was a young up and coming offensive coach who's teams were pretty average (0.500 record, 2 15th ranked scoring Os) his first two years, with a pretty good QB in Romo running things, to boot. Before his third full season he gave up the play calling reigns and now is the only O heas coach I can think of who doesn't regularly call his own plays (Reid has given up play calling to mix it up before, but regularly still calls plays). Since he handed over play calling duties they are 62-44 and have had 4 top 5 scoring offenses, including this year so far. They were division Champs 3 times as well and are on pace for a 4th in 2019. But they've also failed to make it past the divisional round. I bring this up since Nagy seems so awful as a play caller. Could he give up the reigns to that and be an effective head coach or not? I tend to say no, but was looking for examples, which is why I came up with Garret. The lack of playoff success aside, 3 or 4 division Champs in 6 years would be something the Bears haven't seen since, what the 80s? Would you be pleased with that outcome 5 or 6 years from now?

Maybe Michael despises his dad for making him work for a living and will sell them the minute he dies. Best case scenario IMO.

Check out my last post on the previous page. How do you think Pace handles that hypothetical? a 99 passer rating and nearly 4000 yards would likely be an extension. That's not Aaron Rodgers level, but its good and a deal that doesn't cripple the Bears financially wont stop them from also drafting another QB if they want. That's what I would hope they do. If the concern is that Pace will inflate his chest, yell "I told you so" and bump Mitch up to top 3 status for QB salary, no thanks. fwiw, If I thought Mitch was going to put up those numbers consistently, I'd sign him long term tomorrow. You can win with a QB playing at that level. But consistency would be the huge question mark. You'd have two total crap years and two nice years but not even top 10 type years. And coming off a season like that, if it's not a top 3 extension it would probably be at least top 5 with a significant guaranteed deal. If he didn't become consistent then, the those first few extension years become rough to build around. Luckily I think the hypothetical is very optimistic. More likely would be what happens if Mitch is the QB next year and settles into a high 80s low 90s type passer but you still haven't drafted his replacement. Is there a shorter term deal you can sign him to to bridge until you draft and develop a replacement? Or he's a low 80s type passer again and maybe the D will regress and you sneak tank for Lawrence.

It was actually a can of mixed vegetables he was talking to.

Check out my last post on the previous page. How do you think Pace handles that hypothetical?

They'll try to find the Mahomes-iest pick they can, but just end up with some Air Raid guy with a lots a confidence but 1/3 the arm talent. A guy confident QB with a lesser arm is still an improvement over Mitch, no? I present Baker Mayfield. Maybe it's a Minshew who might also be a junky QB despite the hot start.

If he shows only moderate signs of improvement the team won't be that much better and I would expect them not to give him an extension. Logically your statement is correct however, we're talking about Pace, who invested so much in Mitch, don't you think he'd find any excuse to re-up. Rather, than finally admit his mistake and move on? Would need to check his conviction-o-meter

They'll try to find the Mahomes-iest pick they can, but just end up with some Air Raid guy with a lots a confidence but 1/3 the arm talent.

I'm not convinced Mariota will cost a lot. I could see him going in the low double digits range, which would be tight, but manageable. OTOH I'm really not convinced on Mariota, either. Definitely don't want to see them give up draft capital to trade for any of the guys listed. Of all those guys listed, I don't think all of them are going to go for big money... someone will be left standing available for Chase Daniel type money or less... who knows which one it will be, and Pace probably won't be in the position where he wants to just wait out the market and not get his top guy. Honestly, while really risky considering that closing window, I think the best bet is to double down on the strategy of cheap QB spending and put every cap resource elsewhere. Get some competition for Mitch, but don't hinder upgrades elsewhere to try and improve the QB room with an expensive vet. Bring in a youngish guy coming out of a rookie or second contract who has some backup experience and has some skills to work with but may still fit in that sub $5m range. Hopefully use one of your seconds on a QB you like, or worst case the 4th round comp pick. Bring in a couple UDFAs. If anyone flashes in the XFL, bring them into the rookie minicamp. Sign Bray to non-guaranteed deal for camp. Post-draft if you don't end up with a 2nd or 4th rounder you REALLY like, bring in whatever vet QB you can at that point (thinking a Fitzpatrick type in that 3-4M range) But basically plan on a 3 QB roster with Mitch + cheap vet competition + 2nd round pick. Spend a chunk of the cap space on a move TE and interior swing OL guy. Spend a pick on a OT. Cut Floyd's non-guaranteed deal and put that back into the FA market for a front 7 upgrade (Clowney as the #1 choice, on a backloaded deal). Do whatever back-oaded contract shenanigans you have to to fit Dix back into the S room on a multi-year deal. You may need to cut some of the waste in the WR room with either Gabriel or Patterson and do your best to fill it on the cheap (Wims. Ridley, your tables are ready). May even need to look at some roster bonus conversions. Looks like Whitehair may have some convertible cap- Massie and Burton look like they do, but those would be riskier conversions since they'll be such prime cut candidates in 2021, and converting cap kills that. So basically ~ 21M in cap after cutting Long. Cut Floyd (13) and Gabriel (4.5) and you're at about 39M. ~5-7M on the QB room ~5-7M on a TE ~2-4M on decent swing lineman? About 20-21M left for backloading some D deals on a Floyd replacement, retaining/replacing Clinton-Dix, replacing Trevathan (hopefully White Nick continues to flash and signs relatively cheap), the draft class, and low/minimum signings.... again some of the other cap manuevers mentioned will need to come into play. Might have to put some high protection 2nd round tneders their few RFA who are actually good depth guys. (There are 3 really big cut candidates based on pure cap saving, but I don't think any would be worth it - Robinson, Fuller, Amukamara, all would save nearly 8-10M each. Shaheen at 1.2M is an easy, albeit small savings cut. Plow that right back into a low-end blocking TE as a 1:1 trade-off probably). With all the backloaded deals mentioned, 2021 will be big reset with some more obvious dead weight contracts available to cut or not re-sign, but will need to see production from some of the younger guys currently on the roster who can bridge into 2022/23. Also the silver lining with a crappy Mitch, and if you don't spend big on a averag-ish QB like Bridgewater, you can keep on keeping the QB room pretty cheap. Draft; 2nd ; QB (Hurts or Eason, but I could see them both move up unfortunately) 2nd ; OT or CB (eventual Amukamara/Fuller replacements needed) 4th ; OT or CB - possible QB if no 2nd round pick 5th ; OL, S, LB, RB depth 5th* ; OL, S, LB, RB depth 5th/6th** ; OL, S, LB, RB, CB, WR depth 6th; OL, S, LB, RB, CB, WR depth 7th ; OL, S, LB, RB, CB, WR depth *Possible conditional pick from Mack trade, unconfirmed **Conditional pick for Howard, details unknown Could possibly get another comp pick for 2021 depending on how that FA group works out (Trevathan, Clinton-Dix, Bush, Lynch, Daniel, Black Nick, White Nick all could be comp pick losses). Obviously they'll keep a few, plus sign some FA who offset those, but they could get one if they don't spread the limited money around too much and instead go for one or two big signings and then fill in the rest with guys who don't offset the comp formula. I think 2021 they'll just be down a late pick for Pinerio, but otherwise be intact with picks.

The bold I actually don't get, given the first part. If they go on a run, they're looking at a mid 20's or worse pick. So not exactly prime QB drafting territory. And in fact, if you look at the 2 seconds they have this year, pretty comparable overall value. I actually like a few of the QBs who could make it to the 2nd round this year, FWIW. Though Tua's injury could throw a wrench in that landscape if enough QB needy teams target the position in Round 1 and push those guys up.

It really depends on what that hypothetical would mean. If Mitch of 2018 were to be his ceiling, that's a QB who you'd really struggle to build a team around with a giant extension. But they could have a "turnaround" year like that and fool people, when really 2018 Mitch as a ceiling isn't enough. He could settle into just being, like most average QBs, very inconsistent and not a true difference maker. Let the Bears pay the Bears tax. I'll pay the playoff tax. If they manage to go on a 2020 playoff run with Mitch as Qb, odds are he'd have significantly improved. Pace and Nagy would have a lot of data points on Mitch by then and can make the decision about the contract. It's their future they are playing with at that point, and they could still decide to go QB in the draft. Let's just say he plays out this year at the statistical pace he has since the Chargers game. That would put him as a 81.9 passer for the year, which would be like a bottom 3 passer. Now let's say in 2020, he miraculously makes it back up to 2018 play, and even with some modest gains. The Bears scoring O and D rank 10th and 1st respectively (and lets say the scoring isn't heavily Defense inflated like 2018's 9th place ranking was). They go 13-3, get the bye and win the divisional round, but lose in the NFC Championship. Mitch puts up this stat line for 2020, included with career numbers. Again, modest gains from 2018, but an overall more successful offense. Lets say is the same general strengths and issues as 2018, just more consistent. Rk Cmp Att Yds TD Int Cmp% Rate Y/A 2017 196 330 2193 7 7 59% 77.5 6.65 2018 289 434 3223 24 12 67% 95.4 7.43 2019 286 465 2692 15 7 62% 81.9 5.79 2020 357 527 3929 25 8 68% 99.1 7.46 Career 1128 1756 12037 71 34 64% 89.6 6.85 Is that a QB you sign to a long deal or not? Luckily, in this incredibly optimistic scenario they'd have the option of two franchise tags.. which I think would be the route they'd be best served with at that point. But I' could see the concern the Bears would extend him and he'd continue to be inconsistent, and now expensive to boot. FWIW- the 2020 I described is stripped straight from the 2017 Vikings with Keenum starting 14 games and Bradford 2. They obviously moved on, with mixed results to show for it with Cousins at the helm, but Keenum went on to put up a 81.2 passer rating the next year and currently sits at 94.8 this year, which is probably where his year ends now that Haskins has been handed the reigns.