Transmogrified Tiger

He could play CF. He’s the exact type of bat this offense needs, him and Nico on the roster would really help with the contact issues and help supplement things. I’d consider using Amaya in a trade for him, honestly. Happ or Bote, Amaya and some other stuff like Short, Abbott, etc I think I’d do. I have zero confidence he's going to keep the BABIP train going. I know there's logical reasons to think otherwise, but I'm fairly convinced he's on the Scooter Gennett path.

We have multiple players I expect to be better second basemen than Merrifield in 2020, I'm willing to look bad for this take just please don't trade for him under any circumstances

That's a fair point, although I think it's also worth considering it an illustration of how few PA his MLB downturn was if 1 week essentially erased it. We do have ~900 PA before this year of him having an MLB quality bat(especially in CF), so I don't want us to overstate the risk. That is the risk though, Happ is a bit of a wild card, and he hasn't spent so much time in CF that we can be uber-confident in how to peg him defensively either.

also, and this should be apparent because it was literally said before someone made the unserious argument, the benefit of Happ is not only 'oh he could be good', it's that he can be good and now you have fewer holes to fill. Happ might be better than the alternatives in a vacuum, but even if he's not, it's more likely Happ + [thing you use money on] is greater than a CF acquisition + [thing you use less money on]

Butterfield is following Maddon to the Angels.

The more I try to think through things, the more it feels like CF ends up being tricky/important to doing the offseason well. Just running down the options: - Heyward's bat would be fine there if his defense were great, but he's north of 30 now and UZR found him below average in his first extended look in CF - Happ represents the best chance to get everything you want(good bat & D, young, not expensive), but there's question marks about how much we can count on both the offense and defense - Almora is arbitration eligible - Kemp and Hoerner could probably play some CF in a pinch but I don't think you really consider them there in a roster-building sense - There's a couple options that might be decent options from a productivity and cost sense, but they make the team older and with that also carry some performance risk. Shogo, Marte, and Gardner come to mind - The rest of the options that might be desirable are either no chance to be available(your Springers & Acunas), or there's folks with both productivity and cost questions that make it hard to tell how attractive they are(Margot? Kingery? Bradley?) Just typing that out is almost enough to make me want to get a defense-first backup for cheap, give Happ the keys and then use the resources elsewhere. That could have the consequence of limiting playing time for one or more of Heyward, Bote, Hoerner, but there are worse problems to have.

Saves money to go add other stuff (assuming things are tight), adds a SP who could be as good as Q if they can unlock some things (he’s had elite K numbers as a SP and a 2.8 fWAR year as recently as 2018) and gets us a nice bullpen arm to work with. So the thinking is 8-9 million + a promising but unproven pen arm is worth the downgrade in SP certainty. Not sure I'd go that route in particular, but I get it.

Why are we trading Quintana when making a speculative SP acquisition

The Luxury Tax is so fun. Owners insist on these punishments for crossing an arbitrary threshold, and now that those punishments are in place the owners cry "what are we supposed to do in the face of these harsh punishments??" Last year's payroll ended at ~240, with the highest LT level starting at 246. This year's limit is 248, so I'd imagine flat-ish means they probably can do 240 to start the year and have a little breathing room for the trade deadline. Where does the money from the luxury tax go? https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2015/12/03/breaking-down-over-400-million-in-mlb-luxury-tax-penalties-since-2003/#71c399b0541a It's possible that changed in the new CBA, but I'd guess it's similar if not identical.

3 million for Shogo is don't even think about it just do it territory unless you're convinced he's not a CF. That said, I don't trust MLBTR's market judgment in the best of times, and this is a turbulent FA market.

But why February? There's no reason/s the offseason should play out play out that way - wait until February for Cole, inevitably lose Cole, start thinking about other stuff I'm really confused how you're struggling to grasp the overall point even if you don't agree. - If the last couple years are any indication, Cole and Rendon aren't going to sign until nearly spring training. - In FA and trade, and at prices high and low, the vast majority of available players will find their 2020 home prior to that point - The Cubs have to stretch to make Cole/Rendon fit financially That means if the Cubs pursue Cole/Rendon and don't sign them, they'll have hoarded Cole/Rendon resources(leaving very little left for other upgrades) and have basically nothing left to use it on. That's really really really bad! Yes, they can make upgrades that don't carry huge financial or trade costs, but success isn't completely uncorrelated to resources that all offseasons without Cole/Rendon end up in a similar place.

No as in zero? While playing with the idea of multiple possibly infinite realities? Surely you jest! I have put zero words in your mouth, definitely make no suggestions you're closing the door on *everyone* good just the best two best players likely or definitely available this offseason. I just don't see how that expected timeline, and I agree the top FAs are going to sign late again because definitelynotcollusion, works against the Cubs in any practical way. The powder isn't a thing anymore, the owner tossed the idea of dry powder for imaginary windows out publicly, so I also also don't get this idea that they have to be screwed because Cole signs in February. Is it based on presumed inactivity? An uninterested trade market? Missing out on their favorite Gregorious/Odorizzi/Puig tier FA? Take the Top 50 Free Agents, and the Top 25 trade targets the Cubs might have an interest in. How many of those players are still going to be on the market in February? Maybe 10? If you're willing to say that the upside of a Cole or a Rendon is worth the risk that you're left with nothing(I don't agree, but that's fine), but that is the choice.

Why do they only have to make trades after those big FAs leave the market? Lindor rumors are already all over the place and both the Realmuto and Goldschmidt trades came way before Because there is no reality in which they trade for a high priced star AND sign one in free agency. Make all the trades you want, that move is in your control more than signing a top end FA is. It feels like you're hearing me say 'they aren't going to be able to get anyone good', and what I am saying is more narrow. If you don't make your Lindor or Betts deal by the end of the winter meetings you're still very likely to have quality options. If you wait until it's nearly February to keep your powder dry for Cole and he signs with another team, you are completely screwed because there's no quality on the FA market left and no other teams are going to be making deals of that stature.

Because they need to get better! They can't risk being left with all their payroll flexibility at the end of the offseason and no willing trading partners or quality on the FA market because everyone has already made their deals, because then they will be materially worse than they could be otherwise.

How does this work against the Cubs? I'm all about the scraps that remain on FA this year, who are the Cubs dying to hand out middle tier FA contracts to? The top end of the FA market has been playing an extreme waiting game in recent years to try to wring out every dollar they can. The Cubs, who probably need to make moves to create room for a top end FA to begin with, are not going to wait until late January because the other uses for that money on the trade and FA market will have dwindled. They aren't going to bet the offseason on being the team that gets Cole/Rendon when that also means they have to spend nothing on any other upgrades that are needed.

It's not great, they have basically zero chance of going after a top of market FA because those guys aren't going to go quickly and they can't afford to wait until that dust settles to use their flexibility on the scraps that remain. It's not horrible either, mostly because MLB has worked very hard to make spending at the top of the FA market less correlated to winning, but we don't have to pretend this is an enviable amount of resources.

Current LT Payroll + MLBTR's arb estimates is about 209 million for 17 players. Cutting out Russell for being non-tendered and adding in pre-arb salaries for the rest of the active roster is about a wash. That leaves ~30 million in LT payroll for all the changes you're going to make. Possibly less to leave any room for mid-season upgrades. Play it safe and call it 25 million.

IMO, I don't think it needs to be all that high on the list, assuming that a Top 5 SP is brought in to replace Hamels. Even if you throw out Mills because he lacks options, you still have Chatwood and Alzolay on hand, and if we're getting to 8th starter territory we're either to the 'unreasonable contingency' point or other names have had time to assert themselves(Abbott in particular, maybe Miller). To me, there were two ways to approach the 5th starter spot this offseason: Go get someone established or use the volume approach and allocate resources more towards the other holes on the roster. That's not a choice we've had previously during the Theo era. I realize that the former was always more likely, and that's why this realistically doesn't matter that much, but it still sucks to have that determined before FA even truly starts. The upside of going with the volume approach is that it's less expensive resource-wise, especially since you aren't starting from literally 0 in that volume(Chatwood, Alzolay, Mills). If they want to go that way they still can, they just need a small amount more and that's not very expensive compared to Graveman. Not bringing back Graveman doesn't shut the door on that at all, especially since we have very little idea if he's even physically capable of starting MLB games for even part of next year.

IMO, I don't think it needs to be all that high on the list, assuming that a Top 5 SP is brought in to replace Hamels. Even if you throw out Mills because he lacks options, you still have Chatwood and Alzolay on hand, and if we're getting to 8th starter territory we're either to the 'unreasonable contingency' point or other names have had time to assert themselves(Abbott in particular, maybe Miller).

Paying rental or near-rental prices for stars is very on-brand for the Cards. Heyward and Goldschmidt being very immediate examples.

I think Kendrick is a fine addition, but I’m uneasy considering him the fulcrum of the offseason when he’s a 36 year old, BABIP dependent bat who spent the majority of his defensive innings at 1B.

Yeah, I know Toronto made a fair amount of mid-season upgrades, but especially if Jozy is out, I have to think Seattle is a big favorite to repeat their game against TFC from earlier in the season. Even last night Toronto won by converting a couple very low percentage shots, which isn't super sustainable, plus Frei is a better shot stopper than Guzan. It's a really weird feeling going from hoping they don't blow it against Dallas to feeling they're a definitive MLS Cup favorite at home in the span of less than 2 weeks.

I'm glad the Nats won but now I'm even more glad Martinez got ejected in Game 6 because this now exists

Agreed, trading Bryant is the conclusion that dim-witted reporters draw to generalized 'no one is untouchable' and 'there's gonna be big changes' statements, and given the time of year means Theo isn't going to say 'no you idiots' about any move, plus the dim-witted reporter echo chamber it repeats itself into a Serious Trade Rumor .

Counterpoint: Atlanta hosting again would be just as boring so let's have the Sounders play a home final for once. What a performance that was, I was honestly hoping that they wouldn't get smoked like their other trip to LAFC, and they basically controlled the game. A little fortunate to convert their chances, but that's why Ruidiaz and Lodeiro get paid big bucks.