Fred Hornkohl

Not to be overly picky here.... but the CUBS (Colts, Orphans, White Stockings) are in their 130th season in the National League, but they've only had player numbers on their uniforms for 75 years now. That being said, look how many retired numbers they have compared to the Cardinals, Dodgers, etc. Granted, teams like the Yankees have had far more legendary players, but only 4 retired by the Cubs? Have they lacked superstardom that much in all their years? Honestly, I must plead ignorance when it comes to retired uniform numbers on other teams. (Cardinals, Dodgers, etc.). Whether the CUBS have lacked superstardom over the period...... well, you tell me..... 1930 thru 2004 World Series team W L pct PA W L Los Angeles Dodgers 6400 5358 0.544 21 6 10 St. Louis Cardinals 6347 5402 0.540 19 8 6 San Francisco Giants 6150 5603 0.523 13 2 6 Atlanta Braves 5967 5761 0.509 18 2 6 Cincinnati Reds 5969 5797 0.507 11 4 4 Pittsburgh Pirates 5811 5921 0.495 10 3 0 Chicago Cubs 5688 6061 0.484 8 0 4 Philadelphia Phillies 5391 6331 0.460 8 1 3

Otis.... we is da sweeper, not the sweepee !! Shape up there !!

Worthless stats of the day...... CUBS are 7-9 on Mondays CUBS are 3-0 vs. Los Angeles CUBS are 30-30 at night. CUBS are 32-34 at home. CUBS are 34-26 when they've won the previous game.... 27-42 after a loss CUBS are 14-28 when the temperature is in the 70's CUBS are 20-12 when Derrek Lee hits at least 1 HR.... 41-56 when he doesn't CUBS are 28-18 when their pitchers' get at least 1 hit.... 34-50 when they don't CUBS are 50-24 when they get a quality start,... 12-44 when they don't CUBS are 21-44 when the opponent gets a quality start.... 41-24 when they don't CUBS are 4-6 when Williams starts Williams is 5 of 10 in quality starts Williams's ERA pitching to Barrett is 4.43.... Williams hasn't pitched to Blanco CUBS score 4.42 R/G overall.... 4.31 R/G when Williams pitches CUBS hit 1.22 HR/G overall.... 0.89 HR/G when Williams pitches CUBS' offensive support of Williams...... 04/04 - 08/28 AB R H 2b 3b HR TB RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS CUBS w/Williams 339 44 88 15 2 14 149 44 25 60 0.260 0.311 0.440 0.750 CUBS overall 4503 584 1235 270 20 159 2022 559 345 736 0.274 0.329 0.449 0.778 Williams' last five starts..... Williams IP H R ER BB K HR PC BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WHIP ERA 08/23 vs. Atla 7.7 3 1 1 3 5 1 112 3.52 5.87 1.17 0.78 1.17 08/13 vs. St. L 6.0 4 3 3 4 7 1 113 6.00 10.50 1.50 1.33 4.50 08/08 vs. Cincy 5.3 7 7 7 3 2 2 84 5.06 3.38 3.38 1.88 11.81 08/03 vs. Phila 4.0 5 3 2 1 1 0 70 2.25 2.25 0.00 1.50 4.50 07/28 vs. Ariz 5.3 7 1 1 4 5 1 122 6.75 8.44 1.69 2.06 1.69 5 game totals 28.3 26 15 14 15 20 5 501 4.76 6.35 1.59 1.45 4.45 Williams' splits..... Williams IP H R ER BB K HR PC BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WHIP ERA Home 31.3 26 16 16 15 22 6 519 4.31 6.32 1.72 1.31 4.60 Road 31.7 29 16 14 12 18 4 505 3.41 5.12 1.14 1.29 3.98 Day 26.3 23 12 11 13 20 3 451 4.44 6.84 1.03 1.37 3.76 Nite 36.7 32 20 19 14 20 7 573 3.44 4.91 1.72 1.25 4.66 season totals 63.0 55 32 30 27 40 10 1024 3.86 5.71 1.43 1.30 4.29 CUBS' season series vs. Los Angeles..... Gm# Date Opponent Score Starter 49 Mon 05/30 @ Los Angeles N 5- 3 Maddux 50 Tue 05/31 @ Los Angeles N 2- 1 Zambrano 51 Wed 06/01 @ Los Angeles N 9- 5 Koronka 131 Mon 08/29 Los Angeles N - Williams 132 Tue 08/30 Los Angeles N - Prior 133 Wed 08/31 Los Angeles - Rusch CUBS' hitters vs. Los Angeles..... CUBS AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Ramirez 8 2 6 1 0 1 10 1 0 1 0.750 0.750 1.250 2.000 Lee 15 2 8 1 0 1 12 4 0 1 0.533 0.533 0.800 1.333 Hairston 5 1 1 0 0 1 4 1 1 0 0.200 0.333 0.800 1.133 Hollandsworth 4 1 2 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 0.500 0.600 0.500 1.100 Perez 15 4 6 1 0 1 10 4 0 1 0.400 0.400 0.667 1.067 Barrett 8 2 2 0 0 1 5 2 1 1 0.250 0.333 0.625 0.958 Patterson 13 2 4 2 0 0 6 0 0 3 0.308 0.308 0.462 0.769 Walker 9 1 2 1 0 0 3 1 1 2 0.222 0.300 0.333 0.633 Dubois 9 0 2 1 0 0 3 1 0 3 0.222 0.222 0.333 0.556 Wilson 5 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0.200 0.200 0.200 0.400 Burnitz 14 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.286 Macias 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Blanco 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 vs. L.A. 116 16 36 7 0 5 58 16 4 17 0.310 0.333 0.500 0.833 overall 4503 584 1235 265 21 157 2013 560 345 733 0.274 0.329 0.447 0.776 CUBS' pitchers vs. Los Angeles..... CUBS IP H R ER BB K HR PC BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WHIP ERA Zambrano 8.0 1 1 0 2 9 0 124 2.25 10.13 0.00 0.38 0.00 Wuertz 2.3 1 0 0 2 4 0 47 7.71 15.43 0.00 1.29 0.00 Ohman 0.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Maddux 6.0 5 2 1 0 3 0 83 0.00 4.50 0.00 0.83 1.50 Dempster 3.0 1 1 1 0 2 1 47 0.00 6.00 3.00 0.33 3.00 Wellemeyer 2.0 1 1 1 4 1 0 51 18.00 4.50 0.00 2.50 4.50 Koronka 5.0 6 3 3 3 4 1 98 5.40 7.20 1.80 1.80 5.40 Borowski 1.0 1 1 1 0 0 1 19 0.00 0.00 9.00 1.00 9.00 vs. L.A. 28.0 16 9 7 11 23 3 474 3.54 7.39 0.96 0.96 2.25 overall 1153.7 1089 588 555 471 1008 157 19039 3.67 7.86 1.22 1.35 4.33 Go CUBS !!

You're being a little harsh there, aren't you ? Let the lady bask in the glow !! :wink:

I general, I would agree that less is better, but this is not a discussion of generalities, but rather, a discussion about a particular set of circumstances. Zambrano's usual or average work load is certainly not meaningless, but your "what if" scenarios certainly are. That's just a restatement of the same unfounded assertion you made above and I asked if you could cite a source. Can you ? Nowhere in this entire thread did I state, imply, or infer that Zambrano should keep pitching until he reaches his breaking point. Where did that come from ??

I don't disagree with that. I like speed as much as anyone. But signing him for big bucks ($8MM+) for a .340 OBP? That's not solving our problems. The bottom line is that he just doesn't get on base like an $8MM leadoff hitter should. Just for the sake of perspective, Lou Brock's career OBP was 0.346.

Not at all. I'm arguing that A) when you have a pitcher who averages 106 pitches per start, the risk involved in extending him from 89 pitches to 108 is negligible. and B) that phrasing the opposing argument as an authoritative declarative statement (i.e. "No harm was going to come.....by stopping at 89 pitches") is unreasonable, given the lack of a citation of a source which can be generally accepted as a definitive authority. Can you provide such a definitive source for your implied assertion of 100 pitches being the "magic number" for pitcher abuse in the specific case of Carlos Zambrano ??

Sorry 'bout that. Cheer up, buckaroo, we've got a nice winning streak going. We're up to 1 in a row, now !! :wink:

does that really mean anything other than "when the opposing pitcher is wild, we walk more and tend to win"? No, I don't think that's a fair assessment either, although I didn't test it statistically. Remember, striking out more will tend to raise P/PA too.

Yeah, I know.... but you could argue just as well that nothing that has happened all season accomplished anything.

.... and two of the three were pretty darned good, no? 08/05 - 08/28 AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Garciaparra 58 9 20 4 0 2 30 5 3 6 0.345 0.387 0.517 0.904 08/05 - 08/28 IP H R ER BB K HR PC BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WHIP ERA Wood 11.0 4 3 3 5 16 2 172 4.09 13.09 1.64 0.82 2.45 Williamson 7.3 8 8 8 4 12 2 135 4.91 14.73 2.45 1.64 9.82

It is what it is. 04/04 - 08/28 AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Barrett 350 40 101 27 3 12 170 53 33 48 0.289 0.354 0.486 0.840 Blanco 120 10 28 5 0 4 45 17 8 17 0.233 0.277 0.375 0.652 I'm as happy about Blanco's hot streak over the last 6 weeks as you are, but do you really think those 44 AB's have a better predictive value than the numbers shown above ?? Fred, we really shouldn't let facts get in the way of a good argument when uninformed opinions work just fine. I'm sorry, Vance. Won't let it happen again. I promise !!

That's not entirely accurate either.... his good month was really from mid July through mid August..... Blanco AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS 07/01 - 07/10 10 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0.200 0.200 0.200 0.400 07/14 - 08/14 31 4 14 3 0 2 23 7 4 4 0.452 0.514 0.742 1.256 08/15 - 08/28 13 1 2 1 0 0 3 4 2 3 0.154 0.250 0.231 0.481

It is what it is. 04/04 - 08/28 AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Barrett 350 40 101 27 3 12 170 53 33 48 0.289 0.354 0.486 0.840 Blanco 120 10 28 5 0 4 45 17 8 17 0.233 0.277 0.375 0.652 I'm as happy about Blanco's hot streak over the last 6 weeks as you are, but do you really think those 44 AB's have a better predictive value than the numbers shown above ??

I'm with you 100% on this one. :thumleft:

Not to be overly picky here.... but the CUBS (Colts, Orphans, White Stockings) are in their 130th season in the National League, but they've only had player numbers on their uniforms for 75 years now.

I've been concerned about Michael Barrett's defensive skills for a while now. I recall one quote (I'm sorry I don't have a link, I'm just going from memory here) from within the Montreal organization saying that Barrett would never be a major league catcher, explaining why they moved him to the infield. That has been sticking in the back of my mind for some time like a red flag. With the offensice production that Barrett has given us over the last 2 years, quotes like that one are much easier to overlook. So, I did a little research to see what I could find. I am aware of the limitations of Catchers' ERA as a comparison tool. The primary limitations, however, involve catcher's on different teams who have different defenses on the field around them, as well as catching a different staff of pitchers. We can mitigate most of those limitations by throwing out of the comparison all of the starts of Wood, Rusch, Leicester, Mitre & Williams, since these five pitchers have not pitched to Blanco all season. Using the remaining 4 starters, here's what I came up with..... GS QS IP ER #Pit ERA P/IP IP/GS TW TL Zambrano w/Barrett 17 12 114.0 38 1815 3.00 15.92 6.71 9 8 w/Blanco 10 7 66.3 23 1056 3.12 15.92 6.63 6 4 Maddux w/Barrett 20 9 125.7 68 1748 4.87 13.91 6.28 8 12 w/Blanco 8 7 53.0 20 714 3.40 13.47 6.63 4 4 Dempster w/Barrett 4 3 22.3 13 401 5.24 17.96 5.58 1 3 w/Blanco 2 1 11.3 7 192 5.56 16.94 5.67 1 1 Prior w/Barrett 5 4 31.0 13 483 3.77 15.58 6.20 4 1 w/Blanco 16 12 101.0 41 1712 3.65 16.95 6.31 10 6 Totals w/Barrett 46 28 293.0 132 4447 4.05 15.18 6.37 22 24 w/Blanco 36 27 231.7 91 3674 3.54 15.86 6.44 21 15 Two pitchers have a higher ERA with Blanco and 2 have a higher ERA with Barrett. Only Maddux's ERA seems to be a significantly large difference to me. (4.87 with Barrett vs. 3.40 with Blanco). 3 pitchers have a better percentage of quality starts with Barrett while Maddux is much better with Blanco (87.5% to 45%). Pitches per inning numbers are good and close for all pitchers with each catcher. Team W/L records favor Blanco 21-15 over Barrett 22-24. I think these numbers definitely favor Blanco over Barrett, but I don't think the differences are huge. Another thing I looked into was a difference in offensive support for each catcher in the games included here. What I found is that Barrett's team gets an extra half a run per game as compared to Blanco's teams. (4.62 to 4.17). Complete offensive breakdown is shown below..... 04/04 - 08/28 AB R H 2b 3b HR TB RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS CUBS w/Barrett 3277 434 912 206 13 125 1519 413 247 541 0.278 0.332 0.464 0.795 CUBS w/Blanco 1226 150 323 64 7 34 503 146 98 195 0.263 0.322 0.410 0.732 All in all, I'm in the same position where I started.... that is, I have a concern about Barrett's defensive ability. I hardly think that these numbers are conclusive of anything; they certainly don't warrant getting rid of Barrett, especially in light of the offensive contribution he brings to the game. All that being said, if I am CUBS management and I'm going to keep Barrett, you can rest assured I would go out an find someone to work with Barrett one on one on his defensive game.

You can't retire Wendell's number 13.... it would bring you bad luck !! :wink:

That's a medical opinion that you're not competent to give. If you have a definitve authority that you can cite as a source, you should do so. Given these circumatances, offering an opinion in such authoritative terms is the height of arrogance. I'm sorry, but I don't think the claim that stopping 10-15 pitches short of his average doesn't hurt is that outrageous a claim. I wasn't concerned as to the validity or outrageousness of the claim, but rather, I was addressing the competency, or qualification, of the claimant to present such an opinion in such an authoritative manner. While I recognize that are very knowledgeable about baseball and the CUBS in particular, and I do, generally, respect your opinions, you are, in my opinion, over your head on this one.

That's a medical opinion that you're not competent to give. If you have a definitve authority that you can cite as a source, you should do so. Given these circumatances, offering an opinion in such authoritative terms is the height of arrogance.

I don't want CUBS management being paranoid about anything. Paranoia is a mental illness that requires treatment. Letting Carlos get in the usual innings (pitches) in for the day that he has gotten used to every start IS a positive result. It could be argued that every time he winds up and throws a pitch he risks blowing his arm out forever. I stand by my original statement..... you are overestimating the level of risk here.

TOP OF THE NINTH INNING Dempster in to pitch, McClain in at 1b for the CUBS Encarnacion grounded out to the pitcher, 1-3 Harris, pinch hitting for Easley, grounded out to the pitcher, 1-3 Castillo grounded out to the pitcher, 1-3 0 runs, 0 hits, 0 errors, 0 men left on base 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E Florida 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 3 6 1 CUBS 1 0 0 0 2 1 8 2 x 14 15 0 CUBS WIN !! CUBS WIN !! CUBS WIN !! W: Zambrano (11-5) S: none L: Beckett (12-8 ) T: 2:52 A: 38,763 Home runs: CUBS: Lee (38 & 39), Florida: Delgado (26) pitcher IP H R ER BB K HR PIT Zambrano 8.0 6 3 3 2 6 1 108 Dempster 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14

Oh come on. Z wanted to finish the 8th and I'd say he's deserved it. He should not have even have come out for the 8th inning. We had a 9 run lead in a game that means NOTHING! Why put more pitches on Zambrano's arm? Zambrano has averaged 106 pitches per start. Today he threw 108. I believe your perception of the risk involved here is considerably overestimated.

CUBS haven't made 15 hits in a game since last Tues, 23 Aug, vs. Atlanta (10-1, 15 hits)

BOTTOM OF THE EIGHTH INNING Moehler in to pitch for Florida Lee homered to right center field Burnitz flied out to right field Garciaparra doubled to right field, Macias in to pinch run Hollandsworth popped out (foul) to third base Cedeno singled to left field, Macias scored Blanco struck out swinging 2 runs, 3 hits, 0 errors, 1 men left on base 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E Florida 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 3 6 1 CUBS 1 0 0 0 2 1 8 2 14 15 0 Home runs: CUBS: Lee (38 & 39), Florida: Delgado (26)