Fred Hornkohl

bold statement. I hope you're right. Especially since the last time we scored 7 or more runs was April 23 against St. Louis. Someone's channeling Fred. 23 April is correct.

CUBS are 4-2 when Pierre steals a base.... 9-8 when he dosen't Go CUBS !!

this happens to me often. For our XM radio fans, this game (and tomorrow's) will be on XM 187.

Earl Weaver just turned over. in a stunning development, the move leads to zero runs. 1st/2nd 0 outs, for 1999-2002, on average you had a 0.421 chance of scoring two runs or more. 2nd/3rd 1 out, for 1990-2002, on average you had a 0.41 chance of scoring two runs or more. The only way it becomes worth it is if Patterson somehow manages to get on while bunting. Perhaps it's just the perfect bunt, or the fielder fumbles it, or throws the ball away. However, against that there's the risk that Patterson will pop the bunt up, or make a poor enough bunt that the Mariners can force the lead runner at third. So, especially with a hot bat at the plate like Corey Patterson, plus a badly struggling reliever like Eddie Guardado, the move really was indefensible. You've got a difference in your expected values here of 0.01. That means you have to replicate this circumstance 100 times in order to lose (on average) 1 instance where you don't score the two runs. All you need here is 1 fast guy with the ability to reach base on a bunt 2 times more than the "average" guy in 100 tries, and you've overcome the difference in expected value that you started with. Patterson is, in my opinion, that guy, and you call the strategy indefensible. Just because you're using statistics doesn't mean you're using your head.

Here's some worthless stats of the day for Monday.......... CUBS are 3-0 on Mondays CUBS are 2-1 vs. Pittsburgh CUBS are 1-0 when they've lost their last 2 games CUBS are 6-2 in games that start a series CUBS are 6-3 at night CUBS are 7-5 at home CUBS are 9-2 when they get a quality start.... 4-8 when they don't CUBS are 10-3 when they score first in the game.... 3-7 when they don't CUBS are on a pace to win 92 games this year..... compared to 79 last year CUBS are on a pace to score 768 runs this year..... compared to 703 last year CUBS are on a pace to hit 148 home runs this year..... compared to 194 last year CUBS are on a pace to draw 458 walks this year..... compared to 419 last year CUBS are on a pace to commit 70 errors this year..... compared to 100 last year CUBS are 9-1 when they get at least 8 hits..... 4-9 when they don't CUBS are 12-5 when they draw at least 2 walks.... 1-5 when they don't CUBS are 5-1 when they hit at least 2 home runs.... 8-9 when they don't CUBS are 4-0 when they hit a sacrifice fly.... 9-10 when they don't CUBS are 8-0 when they allow fewer than 4 walks.... 5-10 when they don't CUBS are 11-5 when the opponent strikes out at least 6 times.... 2-5 when they don't CUBS are 8-3 when the opponent GIDPs.... 5-7 when they don't CUBS are 2-6 when the opponent hits at least 2 HRs.... 11-4 when they don't CUBS are 1-4 when the opponent hits a sacrifice fly.... 12-6 when they don't CUBS are 11-2 when they score at least 4 runs.... 2-8 when they don't CUBS are 9-2 when they allow fewer than 4 runs.... 4-8 when they don't CUBS are 10-2 when they outhit the opponents.... 2-6 when they get outhit.... and 1-2 when the hits are even CUBS are 10-4 when they don't allow any runs is the first inning.... 3-5 when they do CUBS are 12-2 when they average 18 pitches per inning or less..... 1-8 when they don't CUBS are 12-3 when the opponent's starter pitches 6-1/3 inning or less.... 1-7 when he doesn't CUBS are 4-0 when Marshall starts Marshall is 1 of 4 in quality starts Marshall's ERA pitching to Barrett is 4.22.... Marshall hasn't pitched to Blanco CUBS score 4.74 R/G overall.... 6.75 R/G when Marshall pitches CUBS hit 0.91 HR/G overall.... 1.25 HR/G when Marshall pitches CUBS' offensive support of Marshall..... 04/03 - 04/30 AB R H 2b 3b HR TB RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS CUBS w/Marshall 136 27 44 5 2 2 59 24 12 26 0.324 0.380 0.434 0.814 CUBS 758 109 194 35 6 21 304 100 65 129 0.256 0.315 0.401 0.716 Marshall's previous 4 starts (2-0)..... Marshall IP H R ER BB K HR PC BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WHIP ERA 04/09 vs. St. L 4.3 4 4 4 1 2 1 65 2.08 4.15 2.08 1.15 8.31 04/14 vs. Pitts 5.0 5 4 4 1 2 1 79 1.80 3.60 1.80 1.20 7.20 04/19 vs. L.A. 5.0 2 2 2 3 4 1 86 5.40 7.20 1.80 1.00 3.60 04/25 vs. Flor 7.0 2 0 0 2 7 0 96 2.57 9.00 0.00 0.57 0.00 totals 21.3 13 10 10 7 15 3 326 2.95 6.33 1.27 0.94 4.22 CUBS' season series vs. Pittsburgh ....... Gm# Date Opponent Score Starter 9 Fri 04/14 @ Pittsburgh N 11- 6 Marshall 10 Sat 04/15 @ Pittsburgh N 1- 2 Williams 11 Sun 04/16 @ Pittsburgh 7- 3 Rusch 24 Mon 05/01 Pittsburgh N - Marshall 25 Tue 05/02 Pittsburgh - Guzman 109 Fri 08/04 Pittsburgh - 110 Sat 08/05 Pittsburgh - 111 Sun 08/06 Pittsburgh - 131 Mon 08/28 @ Pittsburgh N - 132 Tue 08/29 @ Pittsburgh N - 133 Wed 08/30 @ Pittsburgh - 137 Mon 09/04 Pittsburgh - 138 Tue 09/05 Pittsburgh N - 139 Wed 09/06 Pittsburgh N - 140 Thu 09/07 Pittsburgh - CUBS' offense vs. Pittsburgh..... vs. Pitts AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Walker 10 4 5 0 1 1 10 3 0 0 0.500 0.500 1.000 1.500 Ramirez 10 3 3 1 0 1 7 3 2 2 0.300 0.462 0.700 1.162 Pierre 12 3 4 0 0 0 4 0 1 1 0.333 0.385 0.333 0.718 Perez 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Pagan 4 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.500 Murton 12 2 4 2 1 0 8 4 1 4 0.333 0.385 0.667 1.051 Mabry 4 1 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0.500 0.500 0.500 1.000 Lee 11 2 4 1 0 0 5 3 1 0 0.364 0.385 0.455 0.839 Hairston 5 1 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 0.400 0.500 0.400 0.900 Cedeno 13 0 3 1 0 0 4 2 0 0 0.231 0.231 0.308 0.538 Bynum 6 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0.167 0.167 0.167 0.333 Blanco 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Barrett 8 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0.125 0.222 0.125 0.347 totals vs. Pitts 107 19 31 5 2 2 46 17 8 16 0.290 0.342 0.430 0.772 overall 727 109 189 35 6 21 299 100 65 123 0.260 0.321 0.411 0.733 CUBS' pitchers vs. Pittsburgh...... vs. Pitts IP H R ER BB K HR PC BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WHIP ERA Dempster 2.0 1 0 0 0 1 0 42 0.00 4.50 0.00 0.50 0.00 Eyre 2.0 0 0 0 2 1 0 32 9.00 4.50 0.00 1.00 0.00 Williamson 2.0 1 0 0 0 3 0 19 0.00 13.50 0.00 0.50 0.00 Novoa 1.7 1 0 0 1 0 0 16 5.40 0.00 0.00 1.20 0.00 Howry 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Ohman 0.3 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 0.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Willliams 6.0 4 2 1 4 3 0 94 6.00 4.50 0.00 1.33 1.50 Rusch 6.0 5 3 3 1 5 1 88 1.50 7.50 1.50 1.00 4.50 Marshall 5.0 5 4 4 1 2 1 79 1.80 3.60 1.80 1.20 7.20 Wuertz 0.0 3 2 2 0 0 2 15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 inf totals vs. Pitts 26.0 20 11 10 9 16 4 403 3.12 5.54 1.38 1.12 3.46 overall 202.7 175 112 105 105 173 33 3489 4.66 7.68 1.47 1.38 4.66 CUBS have not scored a first inning run or a ninth inning run since Derreck Lee has been out of the lineup. CUBS were drawing 2.50 BB/game before Lee's injury..... 3.33 BB/game since. CUBS were scoring 5.43 R/G with Lee..... 3.67 R/G without. Go CUBS !!

On the contrary, Pierre, Jones & even Ramirez have not been the problem during the last week or so...... 04/22 - 04/29 AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Jones 22 3 7 1 0 3 17 6 0 3 0.318 0.348 0.773 1.121 Ramirez 18 6 4 1 0 2 11 5 7 1 0.222 0.440 0.611 1.051 Pierre 27 7 8 3 0 0 11 0 1 4 0.296 0.345 0.407 0.752

I don't know that anyone has made that assertion, have they ?

They don't need a spark. There not a very good team. You could argue that Prior and Lee are the two best players on the team. Take Carp and Poohole off the Cards ... they suck. Sheets and Lee off the Brewers ... they suck. Oswalt and Ensberg/Berkman off the Astros ... they suck. THIS is why we needed a bat in the off season. This team needs a face lift if anything. Just to set the record straight a little bit...... Lee was injured in the game on Wed 19 April in Los Angeles. The CUBS record, including that game on the 19th was 9-5. The CUBS were scoring 5.43 R/G while allowing 4.15 04/03 - 04/19 AB R H 2b 3b HR TB RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS CUBS w/Lee 480 76 134 23 4 14 207 68 35 85 0.279 0.326 0.431 0.758 04/03 - 04/19 IP H R ER BB K HR BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WHIP ERA CUBS 123.7 95 58 51 60 94 21 4.37 6.84 1.53 1.25 3.71 Since Lee left the lineup, the CUBS have played 9 games, going 4-5. During this stretch the CUBS have scored 3.67 R/G while allowing the opposition to score 6.00 R/G 04/21 - 04/30 AB R H 2b 3b HR TB RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS CUBS w/o Lee 278 33 60 12 2 7 97 32 30 44 0.216 0.297 0.349 0.646 04/21 - 04/30 IP H R ER BB K HR BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WHIP ERA CUBS 70.0 80 54 45 45 79 12 5.79 10.16 1.54 1.79 5.79 Any way you slice it, it looks pretty grim.

Longest single of the day, no?

he hasnt pitched since the 24th i think. Dempster's last appearance was on Tues 25 April.

CUBS are 0-1 (1 run scored) in games without an extra base hit

Last time the CUBS were held to 4 hits....... last Wednesday against Florida.

Last time the CUBS were shutout...... Wed 31 Aug 2005 by Los Angeles, 7-0

CUBS are 2-5 when the opponent hits at least 2 HRs.... 11-4 when they don't Go CUBS !!

After seeing his stats after today's performance, as a whole he hasn't been good. You're right. But I still take issue with your statement that he hasn't done anything all year to deserve praise. Because he has. So has Glendon Rusch. He pitched well in Pittsburgh and he pitched well for almost 5 innings in STL. Overall, both have not pitched well... Oh yeah, I wasn't exaggerating. If you look back at every game Zambrano has pitched this year, he has melted down (for lack of a better phrase) in at least one inning. Granted, a couple of times he was able to get out of trouble with minimal damage but giving up home runs and then walking the next two batters, arguing with himself or others, and having no general control does not equal a good year thus far. You really don't like Zambrano, do you? I think Bleuheart, like me, really don't like the way Zambrano has pitched this year.

With today's effort, Zambrano has raised his WHIP from 1.52 to 1.72. His ERA from 3.94 to 5.35. His BB/9 from 6.07 to 6.68. I think it's safe to say he's been stinking it up big time.

04/03 - 04/29 IP H R ER BB K HR PC BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WHIP ERA Zambrano 29.7 25 16 13 20 33 5 545 6.07 10.01 1.52 1.52 3.94

You really think we're missing D Lee ?? 04/03 - 04/29 AB R H 2b 3b HR TB RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS CUBS w/o Lee 247 33 55 12 2 7 92 32 30 38 0.223 0.312 0.372 0.684 CUBS overall 727 109 189 35 6 21 299 100 65 123 0.260 0.321 0.411 0.733

God I hate to see runs score on wild pitches !!

We need a whole lot of rain, right now !!!

That's 7 XBH hits now ??

CUBS are 8-0 when they allow fewer than 4 walks.... 5-9 when they don't Go CUBS !!

How many curveballs is Zambrano going to hang ???

Junkballing lefties, and any pitcher they haven't seen before.

[sigh] shoulda, woulda, coulda.