TheDude

This is flawed logic. They don't have to be producing at ceiling WAR rate as rookies for the team to not be bad. They do have to outproduce replacement level to 'not be bad', which as rookies some probably will, but collectively as a group probably will not substantially influence WAR positively unless one of the bunch is carrying the entire lot with a Trout-like rookie campaign. How much better are you expecting that lot to be as rookie or 1.5 year players than current options?

It's not frustrating when you realize that we will be bad for '14-'15 and that in '16 the young everyday players all of us can't wait to see will be here. What I hope Theo and Jed acquire young pitching back in return and not simply filler. Why would you write them off as being bad in 2015? At that point Baez, Bryant, Alcantara, Pierce, Edwards, Soler etc should be either MLB or very close to ready at their current pace. They may be ready, but that doesn't mean they will be producing at ceiling WAR rate as rookies. I don't think anyone can expect that entire crop of players comes out of the gate putting up positive wins on offense and defense all at the same time. A team with all those kids and promise in 2015 could still be last in the division.

Anybody know or seen insight into how the front office is pitching Samardzija in terms of comps? Is it out of the realm of hope to think Samardzija can put it together the way Scherzer has? Without digging too deep into advanced metrics the first 3 years of starts for both of these guys at basically the same ages looks pretty familiar. I'm curious to think if anybody here thinks he make that step.

I don't think it's been expressed enough, but thank you for sharing your rumor-mill knowledge. It doesn't really matter to me connecting actual moves to rumors for some kind of accuracy count, it's a great read either way and puts a little shape around front office thinking.

THIS! There's precious little Offseason Rumors in this thread. Seems like every topic degenerates into the same tiresome discussion. Maybe start a Ricketts Sucks/Whining/We're Doomed thread for this stuff? Maybe it's the cubs that have become tiresome. Their offseasons haven't exactly been intriguing. Before Ricketts it was Hendry and before that Tribune Company. There will always be something. The point is it doesn't have to dominate every [expletive] thread on the forum. This thread would be about 3 pages if it stayed on topic. There are plenty of people who care about the offseason buzz. The only people who care about the endless Poor Tom Ricketts bs are those perpetuating it.

Emotion isn't really a factor. I'm working more off of demonstrated natural human behavior. Even with very logical and reasonable folks, it's been shown consistently in psychological studies that all people naturally place a disproportionate weight on recent results rather than over an entire sample when formulating conclusions. Decision makers and executives are not immune, in any industry. You hope your team of decision makers is talented enough to keep this in check. In baseball it's actually worse than other industries because you sometimes don't have a team of decision makers, you have one bloated GM or an unqualified overbearing owner. And therefore there are numerous examples in baseball every year where decisions have been made largely on recent results (or excluding recent results) rather than using a full sample or even an accepted unfiltered short sample, like 3 years. You can slap whatever baseball cliche you want to justify the decision because that's what we do as a people. You can look at Carlos Gonzalez over the last 3 years and come to just about any conclusion you want at various points in that sample. Regardless of where you stand in your personal conclusion of Castro (he's broken to he just needs to work it out at the plate), the value is too depressed right now to consider a trade, even on the optimistic side. The names being discussed this off-season as trade value compared to the names in 2011 or 2012 off-seasons, or compared to 2014 off-season in a strong bounce-back year are dramatically different. Even if you find a partner that is optimistic on Castro and giving optimistic trade value, it's still not worth it for me if I'm the decision maker. Not for a 24 year old only a year removed from being a 'build your franchise around' player.

Maybe the general feeling around the league is that Castro is still a very good asset/will be a very good to elite player and Theo/Jed are gauging the interest just to see what they could get. Maybe they feel Castro is trending downward and no longer a very good asset/the chances of him becoming very good or elite aren't all that great and they would be willing to sell him off high while some teams still really value him. If I'm a GM anywhere other than the north side, then I'm looking to buy low. It's a no-brainer to check in and gauge interest after 2013 if you think you can acquire him at a huge discount. Most teams won't get very far in the 2014 off-season if he has a bounce back 3 or 4 WAR season in 2014. It has to be in the Cubs best interest to see if he can restore value especially since 2014 isn't a special year in the Cubs timeline. I don't want to imagine what Cubs fans will do if he is traded at depressed value for non-elite minor league talent and then Castro remembers he can be a stud, but for a different team.

I still don't get trading Castro this off-season. One bounce-back year and his value is almost completely restored. One more flat year and his value is largely unchanged. There is no urgency to move him for the 2014 season, so I really hope they don't sell low because it makes no sense to do so.

There's no way we'd get Cole and Giolito. In fact, I'd imagine Giolito is off limits period. Why? Isn't James Shields the template for a Samardzija trade? I don't see how that puts Giolito off the table.

I was surprised to see -.2 WAR for 2013 when I looked him up. The numbers aren't bad and the k/9 is very strong. At 23 he's a great add-on to the deal. Like so many others have noted though, the pitching prospects really spell the value of the deal.

Contention maybe, but not making the cut even for the final wild card. That's not enough. You need the existing roster to make cumulative gains still to the tune of at least 5 more Wins over the previous listings, probably more. Especially in the current division if you're strictly talking 2014.

I don't think you can settle on a number of Wins needed from acquisitions and get to a competitive state. Whatever number you think the team needs between 6 and 20, the variance is all tied to the current roster, not the additions. We just witnessed the Red Sox go from 69 wins to WS in one year and a lot of noise is made about the guys they added in the off-season. But the truth is the improved WAR collectively from existing players (Ortiz, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Buchholz, Lester, etc) was substantial between 2012 and 2013. The Cubs don't have the same situation as the Red Sox had in 2013, which is a group of proven talent rebounding from 2012 injuries or bad seasons to yield big gains in WAR year over year. The Cubs need Jackson, Samardzija, Castro, and Rizzo to add double-digit WAR collectively over 2013 numbers to sniff a competitive record no matter who is added to the roster. If I'm advising the GM my primary focus is on Tanaka, regardless of 2014 value. The age and years line up with the progression of the 19-23 year old talent in the minors to stay prime through the growth window. That may be the only splash of the off-season I would care about, all other options for me get relegated to plan B, C, or D.

Man the ball makes a nice sound coming off his bat. Even better is the sound the crowd makes as they slowly realize just how far those homers are going When I saw him in Daytona a few times this year it was evident just how hard he hits the ball. Even on outs, he had the kind of loud contact that got even the geriatrics to look up from their Bingo cards and pay attention.

This

I'd like to see the Cubs land two of the list: Tanaka, Garza, Choo, Ellsbury. Outside of that I expect a quiet off-season that includes a veteran bullpen arm and a Villanueva type for depth.

Any predictions from the board on how many spots the Cubs farm system climbs in the various farm system rankings published due to the deadline deals and draft? The only one I recall off the top is KLaw had the Cubs at #5 pre-season.

This is probably not a real factor in this trade decision, but with the remote possibility that Cano hits the market I don't like to see the Cubs help the Yankees save any money.

I know that Jordan and Winn were pretty solid pros who had good careers, but I personally see the best-case scenario for Soler and Almora to be better than that... Not sure who I would compare them to, but I just think that is a pessimistic best-case I always thought Soler physically looked like Richard Hidalgo build wise. But Hidalgo is a tough comparison because he was good, then amazing, then terrible for a year, then good again and then mediocre at best. But Hildago was a career .276/.365/.500 hitter for Houston. That's about the ceiling I see for Soler. I've been to a few Daytona games this year and you are correct, he is a big guy (6'4" maybe 220) and sized nearly identical to Hidalgo in playing days. I don't recall watching Hildago in person so this may have no meaning to your comparison, but the thing that has stood out in watching Soler up close is how violent and loud his contact is, even ground balls. He hits the ball as hard as anyone I've ever seen up close. It's the type of contact that always gets people who weren't watching, only listening, to jerk their head back to the field. I hope he's real deal, I enjoy watching him hit.

Is there a sticky already on the meaning of the IFA pools? Or can someone give the abstract? Without context it's impossible to even understand the value of trading a prospect for this pool money.

Do the Giants have any prospects of note left? With Pagan possibly out for the season, I wonder if any of the Cubs OF fit for them.

Despite the FO best attempt at bringing in SP depth, the 5th rotation spot becomes a revolving door. The 2013 Cubs end up using 11 starters for the season and 5 of the 7 projected starters on staff to start the season see the DL at some point. Shark regresses, but Jackson emerges and becomes the team ace. Marmol is the top name traded at the deadline. The team uses 4 different closers throughout the season with no pitcher claiming the position for the long-term.

The 2013 Cubs have no award winners (RoY, MVP, GG, SS) and only one all star in Castro. Soriano is not traded despite best efforts. 3B and the OF will be a revolving circus of slightly-above replacement production. Castro begins to take off, but Rizzo struggles to meet last year's slash line.

I actually agree with mob that Tony was the most exciting player on the team when he played. He was really fun to watch in the few instances he reached base. That doesn't make him any better at baseball or worthy of a roster spot.

Polanco signed a 1-year deal with Miami already.

Different offensive environment. Plus Bourn is better at being that guy. And he's a better fielder. But, to be honest, even 2005 Juan Pierre would be a welcome addition on this roster. And we didn't give up any of our top prospects for Michael Bourn. Maybe. The team that signs Bourn gives up a draft pick. In the Cubs case it's a second round pick since the first is protected.