North

It was only a matter of time where Rizzo had one of these years. He does too many good things not to put up offensive value. He was hitting homers from lefties last year on the same portion of the plate where his BABIP was .000. There was dissonance there. It's really fun to see him finally have one of these years.

North 1 CubinNY 0 That's [expletive]. North didn't say anything everyone else was also saying about Junior's real problem, making contact. Your [expletive] hero was going on about his fly ball average and whatnot about his power. Junior Lake's struggles are the same ones he always had and everyone knew about, North's verbal masturbation included. Haha. I mean, I wish Lake performed better. Lake never, and continues not to, showed the power capability that is necessary for success with limited contact.

Hmmmm. This is a tough one. Sit back and imagine all the good Cubs moments over the past decade. Most of them involve Aramis. The 2007 slam against the Brewers, the slam in the 2003 NLCS, the constant (and almost predictable) walk off hits. Aramis is probably up there and might be a bit under-appreciated. Gracie is up there for me too, right there with Sosa. But Aramis, Sosa, and Gracie. Can't go wrong.

Him at CF makes thing lots more interesting and fun. Like Kyle, I believe he will make more contact because most baseball players end up doing just that during that age span. Him staying up the rest of the year is necessary.

Jesse Rogers, the ESPN Cubs guy...jeeze...so bad. He's SO bad. He was talking on twitter how Arrieta has no-hit stuff, but Samardzija doesn't. Nope. Not going to fly, Jesse. Not that Arrieta is bad, just that Samardzija is a better pitcher, and he has better stuff. He didn't even look at any of the data.

Noooooo. It was only a matter of time.

I made a post on June 3rd about Arrieta and what we can expect from him. Well, things have changed! Arrieta since then has been lights out, changing his attack completely. Literally the day I made that post, he completely changed everything. Jake Arrieta's slider usage by percentage: http://s29.postimg.org/fch1lo91z/Scr...1_07_13_AM.png The amount of swings and misses he got on his pitches. Notice, too, that he gets more OVERALL swings and misses once he starts his increase in slider usage: http://s9.postimg.org/99ejnzgxr/Scre...1_09_36_AM.png Arrieta is not walking as many people this year because he has more control on the baby slider: http://s13.postimg.org/ra92btrjb/Scr...1_12_08_AM.png Arrieta didn't control or use his slider as much last year: http://s30.postimg.org/bse3yrc4h/Scr...1_15_12_AM.png And in 2014: http://s27.postimg.org/iu2ea2wur/Scr...1_16_19_AM.png But, what the hell, Arrieta threw the baby slider before. He didn't have as much success with it. What gives? Release point. The release point is lower. It could be why he's controlling it better. http://s27.postimg.org/g1idhjb9v/Scr...1_18_33_AM.png I love when pitchers come out of no where and suddenly start pitching at a level that previous data never predicted. Corey Kluber is an example. So is Jesse Chavez. Cliff Lee. You get the idea. A few tweaks, some good coaching, and a better approach can make a huge difference. Arrieta's changed the projections for himself. He's getting above whiffs on three pitches right now. He's getting favorable hit types on four pitches. He's locating the pitch he throws the most better. It'd be cool if the Cubs can finally own one of these players that get it together for once.

Arrieta has been good up until this point because of unsustainable strikeout numbers and a rapid grounder spike despite his pitches not moving differently. His strikeout numbers, according to looking strike %, swinging strike %, and first pitch strike %, correlate to about a 7.7 K/9. And after factoring in zone %, his BB/9 correlates to about a 3.7 BB/9. His 53% grounder number is high because he is getting more grounders on his fastball and on his curveball. Remember, though, those pitches aren't moving differently and the velocity is basically the same. So the grounders aren't a result of his "stuff" changing. Even though he isn't throwing the fastball in a specific location that is different from previous years, he is throwing the curve at a higher rate down in the zone now. That's probably why he is getting more grounders on the pitch. However, the sample is small and after one or two starts, those numbers potentially normalize. Arrieta's current peripherals suggest that 7.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9. Let's give him the benefit of the doubt and throw in a HR/9 of 0.8 by years end. Those numbers equal about a 3.9 FIP, which is on the cusp of league average. Bosio hasn't really done much to Arrieta because his pitches aren't much different. I don't know where Brett is getting his sinker usage, but Pitch f/x showed that Arrieta's spike in sinkers isn't a result of Bosio. He was throwing more sinkers in 2012 than he is now by about 5%. He's only thrown the cutter 21 times this season, and his grounder increase aren't a result because of that. There is nothing bad about a 3.9 FIP pitcher in the back end of a rotation, but that's not the type of pitcher we want starting in a playoff series.

Castro has been fun to watch this year. There are two stats that allow us to predict whether or not a player can walk at a specific rate. The first one is o-zone swing %, and the second one is first pitch strike %. Both have R correlations of 0.7 and R^2 of almost 0.5. So they are fairly predictive of if a batter will walk. Castro's rates on both of those stats are better this year, with first pitch strike being significantly lower. I think Castro can walk greater than 5%, and I think his ability to drive the ball further will only heighten his value. He's been great this year.

Abreu has been awesome, but we always want to look at what's next. That's all we care about anyways. The issue with Abreu is that while his current run of success gives us glimpses of his strong skill sets, it also has given us some insight on potential concerns. When predicting prospective performances, there are a few factors that are involved. First, contact %. There is a correlation of .4 of contact % to batting average. It's a moderate correlation, and it gives us insight to what we might expect in forthcoming samples. With a 70.7% contact %, most players who exhibit that low of contact usually bat in the low .200s. See, for example, Adam Dunn (70.8%). Another confounding issue with Abreu right now is his willingness to swing the bat outside the zone. At about 40%, that's 10% above league average. So not only do we have a player that can't hit the ball that much, we have a player who is swinging the baseball bat too much at bad pitches. His power, though, is absolutely for real. But a 36% HR/FB is not sustainable no matter who you are. If he sustains this rate, he'd bypass Barry Bond's rate of 29% when he hit magical 73. Abreu is going to make adjustments, just like all players eventually end up doing. He'll get better as he sees more pitching. But up until this point, there are weaknesses in his game that can mask his overall potential in a much larger sample size. We can go ahead and assume he makes adjustments, but these adjustments need to be significant. He needs to make more contact, see more pitches, and swing at better pitches. Rizzo, on the other hand, is off to a better start than Abreu with peripherals that appear to be more sustainable. The adjustment he needs to make is laying off pitches down and away: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_h_profile.php?s_type=13&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&player=547989&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=05/06/2014&minmax=ci&var=whiff&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1 Who is better? That's easy. It's the more predictable one. He has a small face.

They aren't mutually exclusive (now vs. 2019 explosion), so Ricketts buying the team, at least for the short term, has been disappointing.

I'll try to post more here and there. I'm usually on PSD, but I'm sure there are some fun discussions here too. But for pitch framing, BProspectus just released some awesome research. If you really are intrigued by it, check it out: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22934 But I'm definitely man crushing over Rizzo.

Well, [expletive].

If you aren't excited about Rizzo, you need to be. Back before the season started, everyone made the argument that Rizzo couldn't hit lefties. "He can't hit them well! He's making weak contact! Look at the popups!" Except that wasn't true. He was still hitting lefties well. Whether a byproduct of a shifty defense, misfortune, or somewhere in-between, Rizzo hit lefties.He had a .000 BABIP on the outside portion of the plate with a .272 ISO against them. Talk about cognitive dissonance! Not only that, but by just regressing Rizzo's numbers from last year in a back of the napkin approach, he probably should've had a .360ish wOBA. He was good even last year. Okay, so in 2014, are his peripherals significantly different than 2013? Yes and no. First, lets look at what is different. It's obvious; he's swinging less. But to what extent? He's swinging 7% less overall and 7% less outside the zone. Lucky 7's, he's swinging outside the zone at a 7% below league average rate. That's significant. What else is different? So far, he's driving the ball further and making much better contact (i.e., hit types). His BBIP distance is up 12 feet, he's hitting 26% line drives, and popping the ball up at half the rate so far (4%). Line drives have zero predictive ability, but nevertheless, we can use his LD% and his BA as a means to justify his performance in that sample size given his success. Now, the similarities. Rizzo's contact % is marginally different. It's slightly lower this year, but statistically insignificant to be worried. His zone profile numbers (i.e., what he does with pitches on the outside, middle, and inside portion of the plate) are basically the same. The only difference, though, is that he's just swinging less. His spray angles, which was such a concern for basically 99% of baseball fans, are not much different. He's not going to a particular side of the field more than last year. It's marginally different. Here are his spray angles per hit type: http://s8.postimg.org/5uynwj3at/Screen_Shot_2014_05_03_at_2_48_40_PM.png Here are his spray angles per handedness: http://s8.postimg.org/5toq341h1/Screen_Shot_2014_05_03_at_2_48_49_PM.png Again, it's marginally different. But, maybe the slight difference is allowing him to have more batted balls fall for hits. Who knows. It isn't a major change, nonetheless. Look, Rizzo is walking at a 16% rate, is more than likely going to be average to below average in strikeout %, is hitting the ball further, and is being so selective that I might assume he's wearing Votto's underwear. I figured he would be a productive first baseman (.360ish wOBA + defense), and I figured he would see some positive progression just from a developmental standpoint. But wow, did not expect these significant approach changes. Good for him. He may be looking like a .380+ wOBA 1st baseman with good defense. Those don't exist anymore, and the Cubs might have one for under 6 M AAV through 2019 and maybe 2021 with the options.

Valbuena's offense isn't great. He's worthy of a MLB roster spot, but he produces runs at a below average clip.

I like Clark. I can't wait to get my picture with him.

Best prospect? Unequivocally, Baez. He's the closest to being a MLB player, has success at a high level, and plays a premium position. Bryant, Almora, Soler still need to progress to surpass Baez; although, it is possible.

Rockies - 2009 overall 4.33 ERA, 1.387 WHIP, Away from Coors 3.13 ERA, 1.189 WHIP Rockies - 2010 it was the reverse. He was terrible on the road. Go figure. Rockies - 2011 overall 4.76 ERA, 1.426 WHIP. Away from Coors 4.28 ERA, 1.321 WHIP. The rest of career was spent pitching in the AL East. Typically coming from the AL to the NL leads to statistical improvement for a pitcher. He's not great, but as a 5th starter who will be 31 until September, he's a maybe. Yep. I'd actually expect a Hammel acquisition if the team doesn't land Tanaka. I wouldn't mind it either. I'm not sure what to think of Hammel because of his year to year fluctuations in hit outcomes and swinging strike fluctuations. One year he draws 50% grounders, the next he's drawing 15% IFBs, and then his K/9 doubles and gets cut down significantly the following year. I don't get him. He's had prior success in a large sample, and prior failures in large samples. Perhaps better coaching can help him improve.

I know. It looks like the front office is just filling in whatever available money we have on short term, relief investments (i.e., 1-2 year option laden deals) that have the potential to improve any win probability now. There might be something to it. I'm actually interested in seeing how something like this will play out. Overall, the positional talent and starting pitching talent is pretty bad. There needs to be a lot of progression for the majority of the team, which is idealistic at this point.

Kapler is going to be an awesome coach one day. I'm disappointed he was never considered for the Cubs job.

Awesome signing. I'm surprised Veras didn't at least get two years. The Cubs have pulled together a lot of pitchers capable of swing and misses. I like swing and misses. It doesn't allow runners to move on the bases. You'll get a lot of stranded runners this way. I much rather have a pitcher who suffers from a slightly worse FIP, but higher swing and miss potential. FIP in small samples isn't as indicative as one would think.

Bowden is terrible. He's so so so so so bad. Use his comments, analysis, etc. for comedic purposes only.

The error bar on projection systems for players in their low 20s are so high, it's near the point of irrelevancy. Josh Vitters has work to do. Junior Lake has work to do. Both aren't safe.

Unrelated to the Cubs implementation, but this is pretty cool: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21510

Any additional information on this? This was posted a long time ago at PSD when Theo came over. A lot of jokes about it saying, "I can play video games too." I can't seem to find who reported it. I'll keep looking.