BosRedSox5

I think it would be fair to say that Red Sox fans overestimate Theo's value to the Cubs. (He's the savior of the franchise! Chicago streets will run red with blood if the Theo deal isn't completed!) It's just as fair to say Cubs wans are underestimating Theo's value (There's a ton of other acceptable candidates to choose from! Why should we give up anything of value for him?) Theo Epstein is both the best candidate and Rickett's top choice. That should be exciting for people concerned about the direction of the team. Theo hasn't been great in free agency (since '03 and '04 when he signed Bill Mueller, David Ortiz, Kevin Millar, Mark Bellhorn,et. al.) but his skills absolutely fit Rickett's proposed plan to invest heavily in Latin America and the draft. Epstein's absolute best asset is using financial muscle to work the draft in his favor. I would argue that now the Red Sox have an elite core of homegrown players he's probably worth more to Chicago than Boston. I think both teams realized that they've both gone past the point of no return. The Cubs know they need to part with something of value, and the Sox know it's not going to be a huge haul. Maybe that's why the latest reports are saying the negotiations are cordial and civil.

Being a manager for Theo Epstein seems like it would be so easy. Easy in terms of baseball decisions I mean. No bunting, don't steal bases unless the guy can make well over 70%, play your best players according to the numbers. Basically all the baseball decisions are made for you. There are SOME difficulties though. You need to be respected by the clubhouse and give good interviews. Ryno has the HoF credentials to get respect, but I'm not sure about how he does interviews. He's need to buy into the team philosophy though, and I don't see why someone wouldn't.

That's hardly fair. Ricketts is 14 years younger! Who are we kidding anyway? They would both hire fighters to do their dirty work.

Believe it or not, the Red Sox are quite content with Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Castillo looks like a decent young catcher but the Sox like Salty and their minor league co-player of the year, Ryan Lavarnway. I never expected the Red Sox to get Jackson, and FWIW I hope he goes 20-20 in the bigs and wrestles the CF job from Byrd. Dolis looks good, as do some of the other back of the pen arms. Hopefully they get something worked out soon. Need to get this done before the WS anyway and the sooner the better for both parties.

This isn't true. He said that he'd love to have Theo as the GM for 20 years.

That's just not at all accurate. Lucchino is his mentor and the one who actually brought him to Boston in the first place. John Henry gave him his first GM job for his hometown team. Not only that, but he's been given complete control over Boston's baseball operations. Also, I still fail to see how the Cubs going with an interim general manager makes any sense. Here's this from SOSH: That's what awaits if the Cubs don't play ball. It's like the part in Moneyball where Beane is trying to convince Omar Minaya to add Youkilis into the Cliff Floyd trade. He tells him something to the effect of: "I can see the Boston papers now: 'Larry Lucchino misses out on Cliff Floyd to keep fat third baseman in Double A'" The Cubs knew that Theo would come at a price, that he'd require a fair amount of compensation and now they're getting sticker shock. You can't just have one of the elite general managers in all of baseball when he's under contract. A price has to be paid. Holding out hope that the Red Sox will "blink first" is amateurish. Missing out on getting him would be a disaster.

The idea that Boston would suffer any backlash from the lack of a deal is fiction. Sure, both sides have something to lose but I can't see how Chicago just walks away and looks good. In Boston Theo is well liked, and his top assistant, Ben Cherington, is poised to take over. If Epstein comes back, he stays in his home and near his family. This was reportedly a major concern for him in accepting work with the Cubs. Sure, he'll probably be a little upset at not being able to take an opportunity he wanted, but he's a grown man, not a baby. Is he going to hold it against the Red Sox that they held back because the Cubs wouldn't agree to fair compensation. Given his success in Boston people have discussed making him team president here. Their current CEO, Larry Lucchino's contract is up, and Theo could assume that role, or of a new one such as "President of Baseball Operations" while Cherington takes over. Theo has been all but anointed savior of the Cubs. The team already has a contract in place for him. He was Rickett's first choice for the job and losing on him makes the organization look incompetent and cheap. Say Theo comes back to Boston and finishes his contract, who's to say he doesn't mend fences and feel thankful that he didn't make the jump? Who's to say, if he was available next season the Cubs would be holding a torch for him? Do you really think any self respecting baseball executive would come to Chicago, with the understanding he's only keeping the chair warm for Epstein? Give me a break! Trust me, absolutely no one in Boston is worried about this not going through. I'd argue most hope it doesn't. Boston has nothing to lose whatsoever from walking away.

Brett Jackson might be an overreach because he's major league ready and seems to be fairly low risk. He does seem ideally suited to Fenway's spacious RF. As you said the precedent is going to be established, but I believe it will, and should be higher than compensation packages we've seen for field managers. I just don't understand the perspective of Cubs fans that Theo shouldn't be worth some serious on field talent. Friedman is no sure thing to leave Tampa Bay (he works on a handshake agreement with the Rays), Cashman is staying with the Yankees and the only other candidates seem to be unproven. Fact is, the Cubs have Theo in hand if only they can work out a deal. None of the other candidates are a sure thing, if the Cubs play ball with a fair deal Theo is a sure thing. He's reportedly already agreed to a contract. It could be argued that Epstein is the perfect choice for what the Cubs want. Someone with experience in big markets, someone who has shown the ability to work the draft and someone who has experience building a winner. For all his greatness Andrew Friedman does not have Epstein's experience with a big budget. There's a certain knack to running a "100 million dollar player development machine." As Epstein once referred to his goals for Boston's farm system. If Jackson was an untouchable then what about Vitters, Szczur, McNutt, Simpson, Dolis or Guyer? Shouldn't they be part of the conversation in regards to compensation? I can see where the Cubs would be reluctant to give up MLB ready talent but the guys in the lower minors might be easier to replace and their youth makes them unknown quantities. The feeling I've been getting (from news reports and this forum) are that the Cubs should give up nothing for a top executive and they could simply wait and snag someone else. Both cases seem incredibly unrealistic IMO.

Right, a top executive changing jobs in the middle of a contract is much more rare than a manager doing it. My point is that managers are much less valuable to a team than a chief baseball operations executive. All we have to go on is a couple recent examples of managerial compensation and some rumored information about Billy Beane. IMO managerial compensation should be used as an example of the extreme low end of compensation required. Some Red Sox fans suggest the compensation should simply be the Cubs assumption of John Lackey's horrible contract but I think that's incredibly unrealistic. The quotes about Ricketts investing heavily in the draft (and to a lesser extent, international scouting) should be extremely exciting to Cubs fans, because while free agency hasn't been especially kind to Theo and the Red Sox, the draft has. IMO this should also lessen the anxiety about and the reluctance to part with minor league talent. Not saying you should give away the farm, just because Theo should rebuild it, but paying fair compensation and moving on would be best for both parties. Theo is the same guy who drafted David Murphy, Jon Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie, Daniel Bard, Justin Masterson, Casey Kelly*, and Anthony Rizzo*. All this in addition to other, more recent promising prospects. He is a master at using financial muscle to secure players with signability concerns and guys with money over slot. As an example, Boston's top prospect is arguably 3B Will Middlebrooks who Theo drafted in the 5th round and paid 1st round cash to. He definitely does have the chops to rebuild the system and in a few years I would expect Cubs fans to have a good laugh over giving up Brett Jackson for Theo and the fervent discussion that ensued. A quick resolution means Theo can get to work on the rebuild in Chicago and the Sox can get on with hiring a manager. One thing's for sure, I'd love to be a fly on the wall in those meetings. *The key pieces in the Adrian Gonzalez trade

This belief is completely blowing my mind. Of course it's unfair. You want to pluck two of our best assets? You think that is fair? I think Boston fans have simply developed a "gimmie" type attitude ever since your winning ways. Hey, I tell you what. You want to throw in a baseball player like Youkilis or Lowrie, then maybe you can have some of those top prospects. That sounds fair to me. It's fair based on precedent. It has nothing to do with a "gimmie" attitude. The Cubs would be getting the head of the Red Sox baseball operations department. From what I understand, in Chicago, he'd report only to Ricketts. Theo would be a top official with the Cubs, worth far more than a field manager. Even if you buy the single Peter Gammons quote (not sure I do), you still have the precedents set by Lou Piniella (above average ML CF) and Ozzie Guillen (two of the Marlins top five prospects, could possibly have been LoMo if the White Sox had any leverage.) Interesting point though about Youk or Jed Lowrie, in both cases the Mariners and the White Sox had to give a lesser prospect/player to deal the deal. Based on precedent two top prospects from the Cubs seems like fair compensation to me, but there'd also have to be something coming back. Youk is out of the question as a throw in, but I think most Sox fans would use Lowrie in that way if the deal was good enough.

Hey guys, Red Sox fan here (obviously) and I came to see what fans of the Cubbies were saying about compensation for Theo. Frankly I was a little surprised. We can argue all day long about who has "leverage" in the negotiations. One could make an argument the Red Sox can't afford to have a lame duck GM, and one could make a similar argument that the Cubs are "all in" on Theo and can't afford to back out. Either way, here's what I see when I look back to recent history regarding GM/Manager compensation: 2002- Billy Beane to the Red Sox* It was widely discussed in Moneyball, and other sources that the Red Sox were going to give 3B Kevin Youkilis to the A's as compensation for Billy Beane. Youkilis became a star in Boston, but it's fair to say at the time he wasn't considered an elite prospect. With that being said, he had some great success in the minors. In 2001, his first year of minor league ball Youk hit .308/.504/.446/.950 which I believe would turn a lot of heads in this day and age despite his body type. In 2002 he continued that tear and hit .310/.436/.424/.860 while splitting time between the low minors and AA. No one knew if he'd have to DH, and no one expected him to become a gold glove quality 1B but his offensive prowess was not a surprise. *This deal obviously never got completed, but it was rumored to be done before Beane changed his mind. 2002- Lou Piniella to the Devil Rays I am operating under the assumption that a field manager is worth less than a general manager, especially one who would presumably be in complete control of baseball operations. I'm using Sweet Lou for comparison just to show the precedent for compensation, and I would actually expect the compensation to be higher for Theo than for a field manager. In 2002 when the Devil Rays wanted Lou Piniella to take over they paid compensation to the Mariners in the form of 28 year old outfielder Randy Winn. Winn was never a star, but he was an above average major league CF who had just had a breakout season. In 2002 Winn hit .298/.360/.461/.821 and made the all-star team. He was one of Tampa Bay's best hitters and arguably their most valuable player. Only Aubrey Huff had a higher OPS+ and he DH'd for 53 games. Winn wasn't a star in Seattle but he was a speedy outfielder who provided (slightly) above average offense, defense and speed. 2011- Ozzie Guillen to the Marlins Just this year Ozzie took his act to Miami and the Marlins had to pay compensation as well. The White Sox initially insisted on Logan Morrison who is a budding star but backed off because the Marlins claimed they would go hire Bobby Valentine instead who required no compensation. Still, the compromise was two nearly ready MLB prospects: infielder Osvaldo Martinez and pitcher Jhan Marinez. "Ozzie" Martinez isn't an elite prospect, and he took a little bit of a step backwards in 2011, but in 2010, as a 22 year old in AA he hit .302/.372/.401/.773. On year ago Baseball America ranked Martinez as 5th best prospect in the Marlins organization as well as crediting him with the best strike zone judgment and infield arm in the system. Like I said, he stumbled a bit in AAA but he's still only 23. Jhan Marinez was also ranked as a top prospect for the Marlins last year. 4th best overall. He was credited with having the best fastball in their system. He dominated High A and AA ball in 2010 (1.71 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 64 K in 42 IP) before coming down to Earth a bit in 2011. He still performed admirably in a full season vs. AA pitching (3.57 ERA, 74 K in 58 IP) but control is an issue as he had a 1.534 WHIP. Still, he seems to project as a back of the bullpen arm. That's two of the Marlins' top 5 prospects who are very nearly ML ready. Sure they both had hiccups in 2011 but still look like at least serviceable parts of a ML team. ----- There's a precedent there for giving up talent to pry managers, including general managers away from other teams. Theo isn't a field manager who's biggest job is to fill out a lineup card, his job would be to preside over the manager and the entire baseball operations department of a multi million dollar franchise. The Cubs are going to have to pay for the best GM on the market (arguably the best in the league, but I'll admit, I'm biased and there are cases to be made for others). I don't think it would be unfair to demand at least two top prospects in exchange for releasing him from his deal. Even if it's Jackson and a pitcher (like Cashner? Jeff Beliveau?) it's probably going to be worth it because you'll have a guy in place who, it could be said, is the perfect choice for the Cubs. Someone who knows big markets, who knows the angst Cubs fans feel and who is a highly educated lawyer with a championship pedigree.