Named After Maddux

Hendricks is off the books next year too. There’s a path to spend/add a lot of stuff this year and even be over the tax and be well under it next year with a competitive team both years. Heyward, likely Hendricks, and possibly even Stroman (opt out) could be off the books next year. They should have a lot of capital to add players this winter knowing that the following year they should have even more room.

Ha! Great minds. I have a thread coming tomorrow on Will Smith. Short answer is I really like him as a cheap reclamation closer. Houston and Atlanta started moving his horizontal release point closer to his body and increased his spin efficiency. Along with that they changed his slider from a baby sweeper to a gyro slider. And it’s a great pitch but it came at the expense of everything else in his profile. I think the cubs have him go back to a more horizontal release, bump up horizontal movement on slider. He should be very cheap and could get closer innings wary in the year.

Ha! Great minds. I have a thread coming tomorrow on Will Smith. Short answer is I really like him as a cheap reclamation closer. Houston and Atlanta started moving his horizontal release point closer to his body and increased his spin efficiency. Along with that they changed his slider from a baby sweeper to a gyro slider. And it’s a great pitch but it came at the expense of everything else in his profile. I think the cubs have him go back to a more horizontal release, bump up horizontal movement on slider. He should be very cheap and could get closer innings wary in the year.

This point isn't universally agreed upon by teams. Right now there's a common sentiment that vertical movement is second only to velocity, but it's definitely more nuanced about it. The Cubs, in particular, are a team that believes in incorporating fastballs with relative (or actual) cut to them for certain pitchers. Part of that is that when used well in pitch design, these pitches produce softer contact on balls in play. The relative cut added to a four-seam tends to keep it out of the true dead zone, which is where fastballs have equal horizontal and vertical movement numbers (like if a pitch had 10 inches of horizontal and 10-12 inches of vertical movement). Also we need to consider that a lot of Stuff+ calculations tend to be based on whiff% (or heavily based on that). But there's some good research and commentary- that I personally agree on - that we should be looking at run value (RV/100) since what pitchers are ultimately trying to do is prevent runs, not only generate whiffs. It's why sinkers look terrible in most Stuff+ calculations, but they aren't all bad pitches. I haven't gotten an update on Hodge's data for a few weeks, but his horizontal movement cuts the ball in a similar way to Justin Steele's. If you compare his fastball to Driveline's "Blob", Hodge's fastball is outside the dead zone here due largely to the cutting action (approx -1 inch horizontal movement and an average of 92.5 mph which was from earlier this year). And he throws this fastball from a low release height. Obviously the velocity is different, but Hodge's release height is low like Edwin Díaz. If I had to guess, I'd say the Cubs try to still get Hodge's fastball to generate more ride so it's a cut-ride fastball similar to Leeper's. Additional ride on the ball along with his release height and a mph bump or two would be pretty deadly. This is great. The bold kind of fascinates me, because incorporating whiff rate into a stuff metric seems really dumb? It feels like "Stuff" should purely be about inputs. Velocity, spin, movement, approach angle, any sort of metric you can put around deception, etc. And then concurrently, we need to improve pitcher run values. Strike %, whiff rate, exit velocity and launch angle allowed, etc. Including whiff rate in stuff+ makes it a weird in-between for a process metric vs. a results metric. It'd be like including batting average in FIP. You learn more from FIP and ERA being separate than you do by trying to take the best parts of both. People are pretty secretive about what goes into Stuff+ calculations but what I’ve gathered from asking around is that most take those inputs you mentioned and then create a grade based on how a pitch with those inputs results in success. The thing is that whiffs are often heavily weighted (or the only large factor included) because there’s less confounders there. It’s independent of more factors than some other stats and metrics. Ajay Patel is a data analyst intern who dove into what it would look like if we evaluated individual pitches based on expected run value instead of one focused on whiffs. It gets super into the weeds, but was pretty interesting if you want to dive more into it. https://ajaypatell8.medium.com/xrv-working-through-quantifying-pitches-1f9125e1c833

This fastball shape stuff ties into my Hodge comment in the last post. Separating those fastballs and breaking balls is a must! This point isn't universally agreed upon by teams. Right now there's a common sentiment that vertical movement is second only to velocity, but it's definitely more nuanced about it. The Cubs, in particular, are a team that believes in incorporating fastballs with relative (or actual) cut to them for certain pitchers. Part of that is that when used well in pitch design, these pitches produce softer contact on balls in play. The relative cut added to a four-seam tends to keep it out of the true dead zone, which is where fastballs have equal horizontal and vertical movement numbers (like if a pitch had 10 inches of horizontal and 10-12 inches of vertical movement). Also we need to consider that a lot of Stuff+ calculations tend to be based on whiff% (or heavily based on that). But there's some good research and commentary- that I personally agree on - that we should be looking at run value (RV/100) since what pitchers are ultimately trying to do is prevent runs, not only generate whiffs. It's why sinkers look terrible in most Stuff+ calculations, but they aren't all bad pitches. I haven't gotten an update on Hodge's data for a few weeks, but his horizontal movement cuts the ball in a similar way to Justin Steele's. If you compare his fastball to Driveline's "Blob", Hodge's fastball is outside the dead zone here due largely to the cutting action (approx -1 inch horizontal movement and an average of 92.5 mph which was from earlier this year). And he throws this fastball from a low release height. Obviously the velocity is different, but Hodge's release height is low like Edwin Díaz. If I had to guess, I'd say the Cubs try to still get Hodge's fastball to generate more ride so it's a cut-ride fastball similar to Leeper's. Additional ride on the ball along with his release height and a mph bump or two would be pretty deadly.

Kansas City, great barbeque, terrible pitching development. Keller is a likely NT candidate which I'd be great taking a flier on for a 5th/6th SP. He needs a sweeper. Singer has been really good all things considered so I doubt they'd move him, but you have Bubic, Lynch, and Kowar who have been pretty terrible relative to expectations. Asa Lacy has been truly horrendous and someone needs to save Ben Hernandez before it's too late. I'd be plenty fine taking chances on some KC arms if they like them.

I’ve heard it’s a quick trip to give him a breather. I’m curious if they do work on anything, but I imagine anything substantial will be tackled this offseason.

Just wait a year and don't gut the farm system? I’m all about the minor league system, but I highly doubt Ohtani ever makes it to free agency if he’s traded. If a team makes the move, it’s with the plan to pony up and extend him. So if there really are plans to trade him, I’d prefer the Cubs make a significant offer. Also I’ve heard a couple times that the Angels really liked Horton so maybe he’s a guy you put in there and take out one of the other top guys.

Of the three, Kimbrel is really the dude I feel least strongly about. I left this out of the thread, but I really wonder if you could get Kimbrel cheaper than most other teams and so maybe it just makes sense to roll the dice. I’m leery of any pitcher the Dodgers can’t fix but maybe the Cubs really feel like they have the secret sauce. Britton and Estévez are really fun options and my personal favorites of the three.

even if you're ready to give him outsized credit in their overall P dev, mostly all their guys, Bieber/Plesac/Clevinger/Civale/Karinchak etc. were mid-late round finds- that should further remove the desperate need to expend such a heavy investment in the position, where you're still making a big reach with a top-10 pick against the universal consensus this is likely to remain a bad offensive ballclub for a long while (like CLE), which i fundamentally hate, and that really puts all our eggs in the Craig Breslow basket to be strongly competitive Bieber/Plesac/Clevinger… etc fit a similar profile coming out of the draft, but Cleveland pivoted pretty hard in the last couple years targeting power pitching early. Both Espino and Williams were first round power pitchers. Obviously it’s hard to know how much specific involvement Carter had there, but to then see them target power pitchers heavily was intriguing. It’s still a risky strategy, but it’s intriguing.

Check out the projections in the article,. PCA projects as a low-end regular NEXT YEAR. That's insanity for a guy with ~300 plate appearances in A Ball. I thought PCA was a plus defender. "Credible" sounds like his defense is being a bit minimized. Perhaps Dan ZiPS meant “incredible” and his Grammarly didn’t catch it.

Brailyn had myocarditis in his COVID case. It’s similar to Eduardo Rodríguez‘s case (he missed all of 2020). Certainly a bad case of this. You can still see inflammation in the heart several months after diagnosis.

Also annoying, too expensive in 2020 and didn't make it to the 2nd pick in 2021: I’ve liked Andrew Abbott a lot. When Bryan Smith and I were in the Prospects Live Community mock we was almost the second pick. But I’d rather have Triantos personally.

We’re pretty sure it’s Chris Clarke going for South Bend in Game 1.

Thanks, Greg. That's really good to hear. Thanks for input. Tangent question: Have you heard anything on McAvene? He pitched a couple of bad innings last summer, so I'd thought he was perhaps substantially rehabbed by last August for that to be true, and would be ready to go. Before camp formally opened, I'd thought the new farm boss had said he was good. But now I haven't heard any reports of him pitching in camp games or being on any opening rosters, and Phil had reference to him being in the IR group. Did he perhaps have a setback, or an additional procedure? Or something totally different? Or is this perhaps just super-duper due-diligence? Or still wanting him healthy pitch-labbing to figure out what if any pitches might actually work for him, and not wanting him facing live hitters for fear that might set back developmental modifications, or something? McAvene is a tough one because I do know he’s in the rehab group. I thought earlier in camp he was making progress, but I haven’t heard anything concrete. I know he’s not on any of the rosters (at least as of when they informed the players last week). We think those come out tomorrow, but that’s an educated guess. I was really hopeful that McAvene could make SB this year out of camp, but alas. It is an unbelievably stacked pitching staff. They’re like 7 deep in starters and the pen should have some plus stuff coming out of it most nights: Reid, Estrada, Albertos, Nunez, Bigge.

Wicks/Herz/Franklin/Bain/Palencia/Nahas have been the SPs with the SB group in Mesa, per AZ Phil, with Palencia possibly transitioning to closer. I read that Palencia comment, but according to the Cubs that’s not the case. He’s still in the starter group.

With Kilian confirmed that would make Nelly Velazquez, and maybe to a lesser extent Chase Strumpf, the biggest question marks at this point right? Or is there anyone else on the bubble I'm missing? Surprisingly both Velazquez and Strumpf are ticketed for AA

Hey Craig, I appreciate it! Total transparency on the Behind-the-scenes pieces. There are a few guys that just didn’t have time to respond. I tried to give people a bit of time, but some guys had vacations planned before they headed out to AZ, for instance. I love talking with Scott. He has such a good understanding of the metrics and analytics. He’s a very fun guy this year. That 2020 post-draft free agency was a sucky thing for the players so I’m not happy about it, per se, but wow did Kantrovitz and go nail that period. He’s said that publicly too. He’s very proud of the scouting team for that whole process.

Shortly before the draft I remember I was one who posted about not thinking Wicks was my preferred profile for the Cubs. I really didn’t think that he would be the pick. He never came up with scouts when I talked with them. Wicks felt like such a Cubs pick of a different era. Kantrovitz publicly mentioned they had Wicks in their top 9/10 overall, but I’ll grant that you never know if that’s just executive speak post draft. Everyone says they got the biggest steal of the draft the week after. It felt like McGreevy would be the pick and I think I can say this now that he would have been in the running had he made it to 21. All said, I’m glad it was Wicks. As someone who generally didn’t love the low 90s FB/plus (or better) changeup LHP profile in the first round, I underestimated what the Cubs could do with his breaking balls. The Cubs are crazy high on the success of his breaking balls and improvements in his four seam. He regularly sports impressive metrics with them in the lab. Ultimately it’ll be whether he can take that all to the mound (my viewpoint there and not something said to me from an official), but I have a lot higher of my own internal grade on Wicks now than I did in late October when finalizing my ranking.

Interesting! Hadn't heard the "confirmed he'll be ready for the start of the season" before. That's great, if true. I also haven’t heard anything confirmed he’d be ready to start the season, but he is hitting down in Arizona. As far as I know, Pinango is still under some level of injury supervision. However I’m not particularly worried about him. Minor leaguers official report day is just today. He’s already hitting and it’s about a month till games. I’d guess if no setbacks, he’s ready for minor league games.

Herz mentioned to me that he's seen a few curveballs get above the 80 percent range as well.

I’ve floated a Chris Morel and David Bote for Nick Ahmed and Merril Kelly deal. I really like Kelly, but my only issue is the below average velo after adding Miley. Kelly had a 91.7 mph avg with his FB. If they get Kelly I really hope they splurge and get Gausman. Gray or Matz is an okay second line option, but go get Gausman. Arizona is motivated to move Nick Ahmed with Perdomo ready. Ahmed’s bat really isn’t an addition. He battled shoulder issues and had a 64 wRC+, but was at 94 and 90 in 2019 and 2020. The glove is elite (99% OAA) at SS. He’s owed $7.875 M and then $10.375 M in 2022 and 2023. David Bote’s contract really starts to escalate in the next couple years ($2.5M, $4M, and $5.5M with a couple club options). Good for him for signing that. It’s life changing money for his family. I’m also totally great with moving above to a team where he can get more of an opportunity. Arizona saves a bit of money and snags a prospect while the Cubs bring in SS insurance, greatly improve the infield defense (imagine Wisdom, Ahmed, Hoerner, Schwindel to close out games), and they pick up a very useful pitcher with solid underlying metrics.

I like that they are getting some new blood into the org from outside that Boston tree associated with Theo. Each of these guys seem like good gets. I think Hawkins is the one that's least interesting to me of the three, but that is probably my own biases at play. Yeah, the new blood is very refreshing. Until Kantrovitz, basically every hire came either from under a Theo disciple or from Texas, which is a FO ultimately led by Jon Daniels but where several of the lieutenants were Theo guys. It shouldn't have taken until year 8 to start diversifying, but adding high level guys from Oakland, Cleveland, Houston, and Tampa in quick succession is probably about as effective a way to make up for lost time as possible. Don't forget the Cubs minor league hitting coordinator is from the Dodgers as well. He started in 2021.

Thanks TT. I’ll be honest, McCutchen is probably the weakest part of the entire mock offseason. I really want a lefty masher and I went into it just planning for Hermosillo. I think they bring in another guy, but there are some other options. Manuel Margot would be awesome as well, but then I pivoted from including him when I built the Happ trade and moved Kiermaier off the Rays. A Happ/Margot platoon sounded too good for the Rays to change. And I agree with you in including guys in at 1B. I’m pretty proud of the lineups I’m building based on four pitchers (Castillo, Gray, Miley, and Burnes) the Cubs should see in 2022. It includes mixing in different guys at 1B/DH. Right now Schwindel will get a run (in my eyes), but if you’re bringing in K Seager, a lefty masher, and have Contreras/Madrigal, you have options. I’ve been digging some of the lineups all based on how these hitters handle the pitchers’ primary three pitches using RV/100. The pitchers section will be out, but I’m not sure if I can believe the Jon Gray report at 3-4 years and $9M/year. I may just include a disclaimer there, because I’d be all over it.

I still think the Mariners make the most sense for Conteras if they decide to trade him. Seattle is in a win-now mode and they have the system that can move a prospect in the 5-10 range and still entice a team like the Cubs. I'd be very interested in Brandon Williamson and I've liked Harry Ford for a while. Ford liked meeting with the Cubs before the draft, but I get the sense that they knew he'd be gone long before pick 21. They didn't fly out to meet him as the Mariners brass did.