CubfaninCA

I said there are instances where it's happened. I just don't think it's wise to make personel decisions based on specific circumstances that might happen in the future. It was the stolen base that mattered more than anything. And it wasn't like Rivera was great other than that at bat. He had a pretty good string of blowing it in the past few postseasons, especially against the Red Sox. Remember, Millar got on 1st in order for Roberts to even get to 2nd. That was the 2nd baserunner Rivera allowed that game. And Mueller was already hitting like .400 against Mariano going into that at bat. The romantics like to say that Roberts got in Mo's head, but that was no sure save to begin with. The romantics... I like that. :D

I've listened to enough former pitchers BS about their past so much not to take their theories seriously. I don't doubt that pitchers think about the runner more. And I don't doubt that people think it has an affect. What I do doubt is that there is a substantial affect on the at-bats, over time. Just like the theory that Furcal is worth more than Walker because he can score from first more often, I'm sure there are specific cases where it's helped a batter to have a speedy guy on base in front of them. But I do not know that there is a substantial affect. And neither do you, no matter who told you what. Substantial....I don't know but it does have an effect. It has a huge effect at my level and it has to at the highest level...not at the same effect, but an impact. I also think the more the pressure the situation the more the effect. Plus...I've been agreeing with you all day and I just can't accept doing that. Did you play college?? Minor leagues?? Basically it throws some pitchers off rhythm correct?? That seems to be pretty big. Of course, it doesn't bother a guy like Petitte, who iirc is one of the best @ holding runners on. However, Furcal and Lofton could drive some pitchers up the wall. I remember those old CArdinal teams w/ Coleman and Ozzie. They cause some havoc. Also, I still remember all the trouble Pierre and Castillo caused in 2003. Altogether, additional speed would make the Cubs a better situational team.

How about moving Lee to the OF or is his arm too poor?? He definitely has the speed for it. Of course judging line drives may be a problem. See Todd Hundly for more...

That's a popular theory, but to my knowledge no objective analysis actually backs it up. Just because you can't quantify something doesn't mean it should be disregarded. Probably a third of baseball is intangibles.

Yeah, SD is cheap. Anaheim and LA aren't too long of drives though. Just have to leave around 10 a.m. and get off the freeway before 2 p.m. :)

Two guys with identical OBP's. One guy steals more than the other, but he also gets thrown out attempting to steal. The guy who doesn't run as much REALLY has the better overall OBP and has more opportunities to score. I do see the argument that the other guy gets in scoring position more often. But, the cost factor comes into play once again. Walker makes 2.5m and Furcal will make somewhere around 8m+. We can't really compare them. Walker never led off this year and he didn't play a full season. Scoring runs also is very dependent on who his hitting behind you and how often you get on base. Furcal's .348 OBP was good for 100 runs scored this year. But Pujols led the league in runs scored with his .430 OBP. Should the stolen base to caught stealing overall ratio be added to slugging?? It adds to one's total bases.... I think Furcal helps Marcus Giles greatly. Pitchers don't only have to concentrate on getting Giles out, but also have to concentrate on holding Furcal to first base.

The Cubs have something in their hand but it's not a bird, and it most definitely is broke. I would not consider a trade of the studs if this team was coming off back to back 90+ win seasons, but this team sucks. Anything to improve them should be done. Would you trade ARam for Wilkerson and Hernandez and re-sign Nomar to play 3rd? That could be dangerous considering Macias could be the 3B backup. Get a real good 3b backup and maybe.

I would not be upset if Giles stayed on the west coast. I'd be pissed if he ended up anywhere else. Giles is not the end all be all. He's just the best option right now. It doesn't matter how he does it, the bottom line is Hendry has to make enormous improvements to the OF. Yeah, I'd be pretty ticked if Giles ends up in St. Louis or Houston. BBB would probably know this for sure, but I'm guessing Giles family still resides near San Diego. Am guessing it will be pretty tough to pull him out of Southern Ca. Who's your other OF choices after Giles?? Abreu obviously. Burrell and Floyd right?? I wonder if the Padres would move Loretta to the Braves for Giles? The brothers would then both be home. Maybe. Seems their big concern is adding another starter, while keeping costs stable. Jmo but I think they'd love to get Maddux to go w/ their young rotation. Moving Klesko would be something they'd love to do as well. Seems Klesko has the arm and speed for RF, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him put up a .850 ops. Yes, he's in the last year of a contract, but he probably doesn't want to ride the SD pine all of next year.

I would not be upset if Giles stayed on the west coast. I'd be pissed if he ended up anywhere else. Giles is not the end all be all. He's just the best option right now. It doesn't matter how he does it, the bottom line is Hendry has to make enormous improvements to the OF. I agree and hopefully he can get a solid 1-8 lineup and bench......and pen. Man, he has his work cut out for him. If he Hendry gets Giles, give him GM of the Year already.

I would not be upset if Giles stayed on the west coast. I'd be pissed if he ended up anywhere else. Giles is not the end all be all. He's just the best option right now. It doesn't matter how he does it, the bottom line is Hendry has to make enormous improvements to the OF. Yeah, I'd be pretty ticked if Giles ends up in St. Louis or Houston. BBB would probably know this for sure, but I'm guessing Giles family still resides near San Diego. Am guessing it will be pretty tough to pull him out of Southern Ca. Who's your other OF choices after Giles?? Abreu obviously. Burrell and Floyd right??

Boy I think some are going to be real depressed when Giles stays on the west coast. I hope I'm wrong, but things look pretty tough w/ not only SD in the competition, but probably Anaheim and LA, as well. Even though LA isn't spending a whole lot nowadays, I can see DePodesta throwing quite a bit of money @ Giles. If the media has any affect, LA will start spending more. They're getting absolutely pounded for being too cheap. Also, Gagne really ripped the team a few days ago... Upgrade 1-5 and the Cubs can add another 40-50 runs even w/ a slight fall off from Lee. Neifi, Patterson and Burnitz were pretty dang bad choices for the top of the order. Patterson was just bad anywhere. Burnitz and Neifi would have been alright batting 7 and 8. Furcal, Lofton, Lee, Kent, ARam, J. Jones, Murton and Barrett would be solid. Everything depends on Prior and Wood though, especially Prior. If Prior has another so so season, the season's probably over even w/ a real good offense.

I agree....I said the same thing in another thread. At least Hendry has some nice options out there and how he goes about them is going to be a very interesting topic on this board. You are a smart man. :) Jmo but Hendry may be sitting in the driver's seat w/ Furcal.

Then they are screwed. They have no choice. They must improve the OF. I don't buy that. Have something like Lee, Kent, Furcal and Ramirez in the infield and Murton, Lofton and say Jacque Jones in the outfield, and the offense looks alright. Pitching is what usually wins titles anyways. NO. It looks a lot like last year. If you figure Derrek Lee is gonna come back to Earth, Ramirez is gonna miss time again, Murton may not live up to expectations, and Furcal is a step down from Walker. What I see is. Kent >> Walker/Neifi, Furcal >> Neifi/Nomar's 60 game's, Murton >> Murton/DuBois/Holla, Lofton >>>>>>>>> Patterson's .600 ops. Also, if Baker has Furcal and Lofton, the 1-2 obp shouldn't be barely over .300. How many runs did Neifi and Patterson cost us batting 1-2?? Yes, Lee probably doesn't put up 1.100 again, but I wouldn't be surprised w/ 1.000.

No doubt Walker's a bargain for 2.5, but I'm not arguing for Furcal replacing him @ 2b. I will argue though that Furcal's worth twice as much as Nomar. He's 5 years younger, his ops isn't too far behind Nomar's, his fielding's better, he's a lot faster and he's a lot more durable and reliable.

Furcal's speed will create more runs than Walker. Furcal's more likely to score from first on a double, and to score from second on a hard hit single or shallowly hit flyball to the outfield. That's just a few examples of how Furcal's speed puts more pressure on the defense. They are examples, sure, but they don't really tell you anything. I could give you examples of situations where you need a double or a homerun, which would make Walker more valuable. Citing specific situations where a player's strengths would be useful doesn't do a whole lot to justify going after the player. What matters is overall production. Well, there's not much of a gap between Furcal and Walker's slugging % over the past few years, and hasn't Walker played in better hitters parks?? There is a big gap in speed though, and it should help the 2, 3, 4 hitters when Furcal's on base. Sure it won't bother someone like Clemens, but there are some pitchers who will get a rattled w/ Furcal on 1st and Lee up to bat.

Then they are screwed. They have no choice. They must improve the OF. Hendry will go sign Juan Encrnacion to play RF and Preston Wilson to play CF, and will say, "hey, NSBB, I did improve the outfield. I went from 750 to 790 OPS in RF and 650 to 790 OPS in CF." Scary stuff. Hendry should just over-spend to get Giles. Is Wilson going to sign a one year deal?? Aren't they pretty high on Felix Pie or would the plan be to move Pie or Wilson to another position in 2007, if Wilson signs a 3-year or so deal??

Then they are screwed. They have no choice. They must improve the OF. I don't buy that. Have something like Lee, Kent, Furcal and Ramirez in the infield and Murton, Lofton and say Jacque Jones in the outfield, and the offense looks alright. Pitching is what usually wins titles anyways.

Furcal's speed will create more runs than Walker. Furcal's more likely to score from first on a double, and to score from second on a hard hit single or shallowly hit flyball to the outfield. That's just a few examples of how Furcal's speed puts more pressure on the defense.

Yes, the Braves are in quite a pickle, thats why they couldnt do anything in the market last year to solve their barren OF...worked out for them though :D Heres their big salaries for 2006 Chipper: 17M +1.2M signing bonus w/ 2M of that deferred Andruw: 13M + .5M signing bonus Hampton: 13.5M Smoltz: 8M + 2M signing bonus Hudson: 6M + 2.5M signing bonus So with bonuses its more like 62M! They'd be idiots to try to keep furcal and trade giles, especially with betemit ready. And thats not an org filled with idiots. Is Atlanta paying all of Hampton's salary or is Colorado still picking up some of it?

I'm a little skeptical of Furcal's desire to change positions and go to NY. Perhaps his agent is just trying to give him more leverage in a cool SS market?? Looking at Atlanta's payroll, they have a lot of money invested in a few players, and they haven't been upping payroll of late. According to Dugout Dollars, Chipper Jones gets $15 million and Andruw Jones gets $13 million next year. Add Hudson, Hampton, and Smoltz and they're probably spending about $55 million on 5 players. Their payroll for this year was $85 million and they still need to give raised to Giles, Estrada, and Farnsworth. I'm not sure of the status of Kolb and Thomson who made $3 mil and $4 mil. this year. Altogether, I see them lowballing Furcal and having no problem going w/ Benemit instead.

Why would Washington trade Wilkerson?? They have the worse offense in baseball. Also, they aren't playing in Montreal anymore. Why do they need to cut payroll?? Getting Wilkerson may be more unrealistic than getting Giles. Now I can see them trading Hernandez to acquire some more offense. Hernandez had some attitude problems last year too.

Who would the Cubs trade to get both Floyd and Wilkerson?? I'd be really surprised if Washington trades away Wilkerson. Their hitting is pretty poor and they play in a better market now, so can't see them significantly trimming payroll. Cliff Floyd's probably the best hitter we can hope for.

Yeah, I don't see the upgrade for us there... Walker is cheap production; almost as good as a rookie. Why spend several million dollars to upgrade a position where we are already above average? Use the resources, rather, to upgrade a position of need. Like, say, OF. What if the Cubs can't get any of these significant OF upgrades?? Giles may stay on the west coast, and NY and Washington may not want to trade Floyd or Wilkerson. Soriano's a better 5 or 6 hitter than Walker, and the Cubs need better production from the heart of the order. Burnitz was subpar for a middle of the order hitter. My concern would be that Dusty would bat Soriano 1 or 2 though. Get Furcal and Lofton and I wouldn't be as worried.

Yeah, I know he was error prone before this year, but isn't his range quite a bit better than Nomar's..

By signing Furcal instead of Nomar I doubt you'd save any money for the outfield. If anything, I'd guess Furcal would tie up more 2006 budget than Nomar. The only way that wouldn't be true is if Nomar met all his incentive bonuses, in which case he'd still be an absolute bargain. (And a safe bet to outproduce Furcal.) His body seemed to work pretty well the last couple months of the season when he was putting up a .318/.347/.531/.878 line. (Post-injury numbers.) I'll echo what some others have said here by advocating retaining Nomar and Walker and throwing a buttload of cash (and maybe a few prospects) at our dysfunctional outfield. Even given his last couple injury-riddled seasons, I still consider the risk/reward factor for Nomar to be pretty good. The risk is relatively small because not only do we have a half-decent (and cheap) backup in Cedeno, by all accounts it sounds like Nomar would take a moderate/severe cut in guaranteed pay to stay here. The potential reward, on the other hand, is enormous. Furcal is a safer bet, though you'll have to make a much bigger commitment in terms of dollars/years to get someone with a much smaller potential impact. Didn't Nomar have back problems when he returned?? He missed a series against Atlanta right? He should go DH in the AL. It may extend his career. His fielding is pretty bad anyways. Can't imagine how many errors he'd have if he made it through an entire season. Maybe 30??