Not sure where he got his number but Fangraphs still has us at 23.4%. Gotta be a combination of still having 3 home games left and Fangraphs believing we're the better team. Someone correct my math if it's wrong, but assuming each game was 50/50, I believe we'd be at 18.75% to win the series. Going with the 4% home field bump (so 54-46 for the home team), I believe we'd be at 19.67%. He's going by actual history