Aaron_Kennelly

Not very far off. That's the big difference. There are a few other minor things in there. But, that's the biggie. But, again, I don't want to go there for it. I like the layout at Fangraphs more and I'm more comfortable with it. And I like my pitching WAR based on FIP rather than ERA.

To continue my rant (and this is a rant I've already went on in some other thread earlier this year)... This has to do with what types of ground balls are advantageous for infielders looking to boost their advanced defensive stats. If you read my article looking into Addi's defense through the prism of Statcast, you know what I'm talking about. I talked about these types of batted balls in my last article about Cy Hendricks, too. Most ground balls are kinda fluky plays for the defense. A lot depends on defensive alignment and the hitter's speed, etc. There are but a few types of ground balls that carry a positive run value. These are balls hit really hard and on a low line. A ball hit really hard and nearly parallel to the ground is extremely difficult to stop. Anyway, I showed in my article about Addi that he is amazing at stopping these balls. Nearly all of these plays are going to be highlight reel plays. Highlight reel plays are very good for your advanced defensive stats. You got rewarded more for making tougher plays, because those are plays that most of the time don't get made. You don't get docked very much for not making them, though, because you shouldn't be expected to make those plays. So let's go back to those plays I showed in that article and look at updated rankings. We'll mess around with the parameters a little, to include as much data as possible. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfZ=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfAB=&stadium=&hfBBT=&hfBBL=&hfC=&season=2016&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&start_speed_gt=&start_speed_lt=&perceived_speed_gt=&perceived_speed_lt=&spin_rate_gt=&spin_rate_lt=&exit_velocity_gt=100&exit_velocity_lt=&launch_angle_gt=0&launch_angle_lt=9&distance_gt=70&distance_lt=&batted_ball_angle_gt=-25&batted_ball_angle_lt=0&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=team&sort_col=babip&sort_order=asc&min_abs=0&xba_gt=&xba_lt=&px1=&px2=&pz1=&pz2=#results https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfZ=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfAB=&stadium=&hfBBT=&hfBBL=&hfC=&season=2016&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&start_speed_gt=&start_speed_lt=&perceived_speed_gt=&perceived_speed_lt=&spin_rate_gt=&spin_rate_lt=&exit_velocity_gt=100&exit_velocity_lt=&launch_angle_gt=0&launch_angle_lt=9&distance_gt=70&distance_lt=&batted_ball_angle_gt=-23&batted_ball_angle_lt=-2&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=team&sort_col=babip&sort_order=asc&min_abs=0&xba_gt=&xba_lt=&px1=&px2=&pz1=&pz2=#results https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfZ=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfAB=&stadium=&hfBBT=&hfBBL=&hfC=&season=2016&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&start_speed_gt=&start_speed_lt=&perceived_speed_gt=&perceived_speed_lt=&spin_rate_gt=&spin_rate_lt=&exit_velocity_gt=90&exit_velocity_lt=&launch_angle_gt=0&launch_angle_lt=9&distance_gt=70&distance_lt=&batted_ball_angle_gt=-25&batted_ball_angle_lt=0&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=team&sort_col=babip&player_event_sort=start_speed&sort_order=asc&min_abs=0&xba_gt=&xba_lt=&px1=&px2=&pz1=&pz2=&ss_gt=&ss_lt=#results https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfZ=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfAB=&stadium=&hfBBT=&hfBBL=&hfC=&season=2016&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&start_speed_gt=&start_speed_lt=&perceived_speed_gt=&perceived_speed_lt=&spin_rate_gt=&spin_rate_lt=&exit_velocity_gt=100&exit_velocity_lt=&launch_angle_gt=-10&launch_angle_lt=9&distance_gt=70&distance_lt=&batted_ball_angle_gt=-25&batted_ball_angle_lt=0&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=team&sort_col=babip&player_event_sort=start_speed&sort_order=asc&min_abs=0&xba_gt=&xba_lt=&px1=&px2=&pz1=&pz2=&ss_gt=&ss_lt=#results It doesn't matter too much. He's still the clear best at stopping these balls. We can widen our net a little to make it a little easier for the mere mortals to make plays on some balls that are just a little easier, and they still can't compete. But let's go back to the one showing all balls hit at least 100 mph and between 0 and 9° vertical launch angle and -2 and 23° horizontal launch angle. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfZ=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfAB=&stadium=&hfBBT=&hfBBL=&hfC=&season=2016&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&start_speed_gt=&start_speed_lt=&perceived_speed_gt=&perceived_speed_lt=&spin_rate_gt=&spin_rate_lt=&exit_velocity_gt=100&exit_velocity_lt=&launch_angle_gt=0&launch_angle_lt=9&distance_gt=70&distance_lt=&batted_ball_angle_gt=-23&batted_ball_angle_lt=-2&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=team&sort_col=babip&player_event_sort=start_speed&sort_order=asc&min_abs=0&xba_gt=&xba_lt=&px1=&px2=&pz1=&pz2=&ss_gt=&ss_lt=#results Addi's had the fewest chances at these balls of anyone. So while he and Brandon Crawford both get credit for stopping 17 of these balls, Brandon Crawford doesn't get it held against him too much that he let 8 more of them go by, since you wouldn't expect him to make those plays. You can look through all of these links and Addi's had the fewest chances in nearly all of them. Addi's getting screwed by his pitchers giving up so much weak contact. It doesn't matter too much, but it's happening. There are other plays that also rack up decent chunks of value -- the slower balls where you have to range way over to get. Those are the "Addi Slide" plays. And they will help him out. I am nitpicking. I can't search for those plays with what is available to the public. But, he's had plenty of chances to look good defensively. And he turns those chances into outs better than anyone. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfZ=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfAB=&stadium=&hfBBT=4%7C&hfBBL=&hfC=&season=2016&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&start_speed_gt=&start_speed_lt=&perceived_speed_gt=&perceived_speed_lt=&spin_rate_gt=&spin_rate_lt=&exit_velocity_gt=&exit_velocity_lt=&launch_angle_gt=&launch_angle_lt=&distance_gt=70&distance_lt=&batted_ball_angle_gt=-25&batted_ball_angle_lt=0&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=team&sort_col=babip&sort_order=asc&min_abs=0&xba_gt=&xba_lt=&px1=&px2=&pz1=&pz2=#results I still think he's being underrated, though, thanks to the amount of weak contact coming at him. If you look at Adam Eaton's season, he's been very good defensively. He's made more highlight reel plays than anyone. But, he's not that good. He's very good, but he's been fortunate to have the opportunity to make so many highlight reel plays. He's had more balls hit into what you could call his "highlight reel zone" than anyone. The more difficult plays that you get a chance at, the better you can make yourself look. Eaton has made those plays and saved those runs, though. If you want to know how many runs he's saved, it's right there for you. And since Addi maybe hasn't had as many chances to save runs, well, he hasn't saved those hypothetical runs. You can't give him credit for saving runs on plays that don't exist. But DRS and UZR both are probably underselling his true talent level.

I think UZR is severely underrating Russell this year. I'm fine with there being discrepancies between UZR and DRS, but I think I like DRS more -- a lot more actually. For one, UZR doesn't measure pitcher defense or catcher defense, and DRS does. What the hell is that nonsense? How can you be the preeminent defensive stat if you can't measure 2 of the 9 positions? And, generally when things are wonky with a random player's DRS and UZR discrepancy, I fell like I side with DRS at least 75% of the time. One particular thing that is really bugging me this year is that Corey Seager has an 11.6 UZR compared to Russell's 7.1. I mean, this is really pissing me off. So much. It keeps me up as I lay down to sleep every night. Corey Seager is not better defensively than Russell. Period. I will fight you if you say otherwise. I've seen them both play, and it's not close. DRS is correct: Russell with 14 runs saved and Seager with 1. Let's leave it at that... unless you want to fight me. If you think I am being a homer, I can assure you that I am not. There are some other decent defensive stats that don't measure things in terms of runs, like RZR. RZR is an older stat that fell by the wayside when DRS and UZR came about. It stands for Revised Zone Rating. It shows simply how often a player converted balls in his "zone" into outs. Russell's second among shortstops in it. Seager is middle of the pack. RZR isn't great or anything, but, generally, it lines up pretty well with DRS and UZR. The top guys are at the top. Insider Edge is another good thing to look at to measure defense. It splits batted balls up into categories, based on the likelihood that a normal defender will make the play. Russell blows Seager away in every single category. It's not even close. Seager looks really pedestrian according to Insider Edge. Anyway, it pisses me off that UZR took a horsefeathers on Addison this year, because Fangraphs uses UZR to calculate WAR. And I am pretty much Fangraphs-exclusive these days. I don't horsefeathers with Baseball Reference much anymore. So UZR being shitty makes Corey Seager look like he is in Kris Bryant's realm, when he's not. And, also, it is keeping Addi away from his rightful place up by Lindor, Correa, Bogaerts, et al. as a truly elite shortstop. UZR also is screwing with Baez and Rizzo. Javy loses 7 runs going from DRS to UZR, and Rizzo loses 5. And, well, that pisses me off too. I'm to the point where I am going to revolt against Fangraphs' WAR this year by substituting DRS in instead of UZR in their formula. It's really simple, just take the difference in runs between the two and divide by this year's "runs per WAR," which is at 9.69, and tack that on. So, Addi's actually at 4.1 WAR after tonight. Don't piss me off by saying he's at 3.4 or I will fight you.

And that's Willy being severely penalized for being a [expletive] LF instead of a really good C There have been three catchers that have picked off more than two runners this year. I'll give you a hint: One is Dioner Navarro, for some reason. Who are the other two? Hint number two: One of them has only started 26 games at catcher.

Enough about how Russell is blossoming into a superstar. He's already a full-blown superstar, dammit.

Good luck.

Sorry, Rizz, maybe next year.

These two...

Willie!

He's fixed!

MVP

http://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/even_possible_aliens.gif

At this point, what's your prediction for his slash line next year? Are his ROS numbers (.257/.335/.390) about the median? For what it's worth, that plus his baserunning and defense gives him 0.6 WAR the rest of the year, or about 2.6 WAR over a full season. I have no idea. I would say that ROS projection looks about right for a projection. If we are talking about what kind of range we could expect, I'm not sure if that's a good median or is at a good mean or what. But, it's tough projecting guys that do this. You wouldn't be surprised by a sub-.700 OPS or an OPS nearing his career average, somewhere between .750 and .800. So what do you do? Well, you kinda split the difference and hope he gets back to normal. He might not, though. I would say, in my opinion, there's a good chance he either performs well above his projection or well below it -- at least more likely than another random player. So I'm not sure it tells us much. I'm taking a wait-and-see approach to see if he can fix things.

[tweet] [/tweet]

Hmm, it appears that shitty hitters don't simply forget that they are shitty hitters if they don't hit for three days.

Stud

Also, and not to be too callous, but who really cares if Jason Hammel gets hurt? He's your aging fifth starter and you have an option on him at the end of the year. And, barring injury, he won't even be in your playoff rotation. I hate to be so ruthless, but let's face it, our concern level goes down when someone like Hammel is pitching. You just invested nearly $200 million in this dominant pitcher, who also happens to be one of the most fragile pitchers in baseball. How are you not being more careful with this asset? Why is a safe guard not in place? That's what confused me the most last year with the whole Matt Harvey fiasco. How did it get to that point? Why wasn't a plan put in place before the season? Why didn't the two sides discuss these things beforehand?

The Cubs have a 30 pitch/inning cap on their minor leaguers but it's just not as practical to enforce that in the big leagues. That seems reasonable and logical on both accounts, but I don't think Joe would let Arrieta, Lester, etc. throw 70 pitches in 1.2 innings. Letting Strasburg do it with his history and money he's owed seems incredibly reckless. I'm not so worried with throwing 35 in an inning. It's a worry, sure. But, I mean, we just don't know. It's better to be safe. But, I'm not too worried about it, depending on the situation. There are a lot of questions you need to ask in that situation. Is the guy healthy, or has he generally been healthy? Was it really high stress? Is it a close game that matters? Has he been pushed to his limits in the past? Has he been laboring at all in his prior starts? This is where it becomes a problem with Strasburg. He checks about all those boxes. And not only did he throw 35 in an inning. He threw over 40. And then you run him out for 30 more, one inning later, already down 7, in Coors, with your division pretty much wrapped up, even though he's already been on the DL once this year and numerous times in his past, and despite him laboring through his last couple of starts already?

Jaxon was gracious enough to let us dong off of him twice when we faced him in relief last year. Time to earn your money again this year, Edwin.

Rizzo also ranks second among first baseman this year in Baseball Prospectus' defensive stat, fielding runs above average. Alright, enough about Rizzo's defense, or I am going to have to write an article.

You're next, Scherzer.

Let's use a 50/50 hybrid of DRS and UZR. (It's hard to be exact, since DRS rounds to the nearest full number and UZR doesn't. So I'm just going to round UZR to the nearest full number, add the two together, and divide by two.) Rizzo's rank of qualified 1B, by hybrid DRS/UZR: 2016: 1st 2015: 3rd 2014: 3rd 2013: 1st

Since DRS's inception in 2003, Rizzo has saved the fourth-most runs at first base. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2003&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d Since UZR's inception in 2002, Rizzo has saved the seventh-most runs at first base. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2002&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=23,d

Just a reminder: Our 22-year-old shortstop is going to hit over 20 home runs, while ranking in the top 3 among shortstops in BB% and DRS.

Apparently potato chips don't have the same performance-enhancing effect in the altitude?