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Everything posted by Aaron Kennelly
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Do it, Fish. -
Uh, we're 51-36 and that's the way we've done things all year. Of course we can do it in the playoffs. Everyone does that in the playoffs. Also, we're gonna have another good relief pitcher we traded for and probably Monty in the pen during the playoffs.
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r_mack and 17 seconds are one and the same.
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2018 HR Derby {Discussion & Transaction Thread}
Aaron Kennelly replied to Southpaw19's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Drop Yoenis Cespedes and add Jesus Aguilar. -
At least if it's a three-game series. You're only gaining or losing one game. On the whole it can add up. But the potential is there for a serious shift if you get swept. So avoiding a sweep is usually enough for me to not be too upset.
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We also scored 13 runs the next game, which was against the Cardinals, so that was a nice consolation. But those last two games of that Brewers series are still the worst timing of boom-or-bust and stupid sequencing of the first half.
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It's hard to get too upset about our overall performance against them, since we're still 8-3 or whatever, but that last series against them is still pissing me off. We won the first game after coming back against Hader and wearing out their whole bullpen while we were using the AAA guys. Then we didn't score the next two games in the series. We had that series set up perfectly to sweep and make a nice move and instead just kicked the can down the road. Those head-to-head series really don't matter too much if you don't get swept. And I wouldn't care about that series at all if it weren't the most recent one against them. But it still leaves a sour taste.
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I want Javy to dong in this thing so bad. Maybe make a Javy Play on defense and win MVP too.
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I don't bitch about that stuff. It's 17 seconds' continual doom-and-gloom posts that are dumb and deserve called out. At this rate your attempts to call him out are just as dumb and deserve to be called out. First of all, he called me out. Secondly, nah. He should quit posting dumb horsefeathers if he doesn't want called out.
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An awful lot of whining for people that don't hate them. The guy's posts are like 98% negative. Venting frustration about Bryant's lack of homers or Chatwood sucking all the ass or Rizzo running hot and cold =/= hating the team I don't bitch about that stuff. It's 17 seconds' continual doom-and-gloom posts that are dumb and deserve called out.
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An awful lot of whining for people that don't hate them. The guy's posts are like 98% negative.
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Sorry, I'll quit being so negative by calling us good.
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I'm not wrong. You have disappeared when they do well. You want to be miserable. i actually think i'm nauseatingly romantic about it when they do well. your perception is wrong, and i think you're kind of looking for things at this point. look man, i understand how over the top negativity can be aggravating, especially when the team is on such a great run. so we blow off some steam by arguing about it in the game threads, and we move on to the next day. it seems like you are the only one carrying it on and making it into something else. you don't see the irony of you turning the good days into negativity over your resentment of negativity? How did I turn anything negative? I posted the Cubs record this year. If you took that negatively, it's on you.
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People should be embarrassed that they hate this Cubs team.
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I'm not wrong. You have disappeared when they do well. You want to be miserable.
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My dude, you've been crying all year about a team that is on pace to win 95 games and has won the division the last two years, appeared in the last three NLCS, and won you the damn World Series. You whine nonstop, and you've barely posted while they've been doing well. It's the people enjoying the Cubs' best run in franchise history that are weird, though. Wait, you think he's not enjoying the Cubs when they do well? And HE'S the weirdo? Some people prefer to use the game threads to vent when the Cubs are sucking. Y'know, the flipside of how you all but vanish when they have a crappy game. I've been more active when they are bad. I've barely been in the game threads the last week. If I vanished when they were bad, then how would I have been arguing with ninnies so often?
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His last homer was on 6/24. So let's start on 6/25. IFFB% = 0.0% https://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=3473&position=1B&gds=2018-06-25&gde=2018-07-07&type=3 I'm too dumb to understand what most of those numbers mean, so I have to ask if a 51.3% RB rate is high for him? And I'm not worried about his slash line, I'm just seeing a lot of pop up and ground balls. Looking back, he raked in the Twins series, so clearly he's been good very recently, and I don't watch every single game, so my sampling of seeing his at-bats is admittedly incomplete It's a little high. But it's also 40 PA. It's like 4 more ground balls than you'd expect. It means nothing. He's the same guy.
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My dude, you've been crying all year about a team that is on pace to win 95 games and has won the division the last two years, appeared in the last three NLCS, and won you the damn World Series. You whine nonstop, and you've barely posted while they've been doing well. It's the people enjoying the Cubs' best run in franchise history that are weird, though.
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His last homer was on 6/24. So let's start on 6/25. IFFB% = 0.0% https://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=3473&position=1B&gds=2018-06-25&gde=2018-07-07&type=3
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Nah, your eye test is being led astray by his slash line. He's the same guy.
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this is an unflattering bit that you guys have going here Crying about everything definitely isn't unflattering, though.
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He's gotten screwed. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/expected_statistics?type=batter&year=2018&position=&team=CHC&min=100 xWOBA by year: 2015 - .382 2016 - .366 2017 - .400 2018 - .374 Average exit velocity: 2015 - 88.4 mph 2016 - 88.9 mph 2017 - 88.0 mph 2018 - 90.1 mph And as Cubswin11 said, all his peripheral stats look fine. His batted ball profile is the same. His contact% and swing% numbers are the same. His BB% is a little deflated because he had some weird sequencing going on early in the year. And he's been really unlucky. .243 BABIP. His HR/FB is way lower than it usually is. He's hitting the ball hard, but I do think he might be having some issues with hitting them at proper launch angles when he is hitting it hard. Once he starts maximizing his power, he'll be fine. I think it's weird to worry about him, though. He's been the same guy the last 4 years. He's 28. He's healthy. All of his underlying numbers look the same. He's just having a down year.
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There was an article at BP recently that showed xStats are about as predictive as stats like FIP. The article set out to show that the xStats weren't very useful, but it was pretty flawed. For one, they actually were a little more predictive on the whole. Secondly, the whole idea of xStats is to strip away context like defense and park effects. So, basically, Jon Gray's xwOBA isn't going to be good at predicting his ERA next year if he is still pitching in Coors, and the same with Jon Lester pitching in front of the Cubs' defense. Also, xwOBA correlated much better with same-year wOBA than other stats correlate to same-year stats. So, xStats are just as predictive as something like FIP, but also do a better job of explaining things that have already happened. They seem pretty useful to me.
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It is amazing to me that he is getting a ton of grief on this when Bryce Harper is on the team. Do people even look at at statistics? Is he? He’s 0.2 WAR behind Albies with 76 less plate appearances. And he can play SS and 3B. Hardly an outrageous decision by the fans. Tied after today in fWAR. And I still think Javy isn't valued properly defensively because of his Javy Tags and other ridiculous plays like the Puig DP the other day.