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Aaron Kennelly

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Everything posted by Aaron Kennelly

  1. Who is this? Is Jake cycling down or something?
  2. Completely different situation. Schwarber was otherworldly with the bat, for one. There was a huge difference between him or another alternative, unlike now. Also, it was in late July, when we were fighting tooth and nail just to get into the playoffs. And, when we called him up, he caught practically every day that Montero was out. Ross is going to be the everyday catcher for the next two weeks. You just said so yourself. Whoever gets called up is going to be his backup and get some starts here and there. Why in the hell would you rush the best catching prospect in the minors up, only to have him be a backup for two weeks? I don't think horsefeathering with his development is worth that. Also, Kyle Schwarber had been catching his whole life. And the Schwarber-as-a-catcher thing was probably destined to be him just filling in here or there. Maybe he sticks, but, even then, he's not going to be very special behind the dish. The hope with Contreras is that he can be an everyday catcher, one that can help us out with the bat and by being a solid backstop. You don't want to horsefeathers that up, because there is no other alternative. With Schwarber, the alternative is: Well, horsefeathers, we'll put the catching on hold and stick him in left field and watch him dong. Contreras has to catch. He's not going to come up to the majors to catch until he is absolutely ready. Also, Schwarber being called back up in the second half was inevitable. He was mashing AAA. And we were gonna need his bat in the lineup. It was a matter of time; you might as well start his clock when Montero goes down. Contreras's timeline is a little more murky. It's stupid to start his clock to be a backup for a couple weeks in April when we are playing at a 120-win pace without him. Any other questions?
  3. Probably. He's got fewer than 600 ABs above high A. He's probably not ready. Sorry but that's [expletive] stupid, we have how many other guys that were called up with the same number of ABs? Willson is ready, and this move is stupid as [expletive]. I hate having catchers that can't hit. And, how, may I ask, do you know that he is ready? He just started catching in 2012. He's caught a grand total of 193 minor leagues games in his career. And he really does need some more time to develop. Catching is kinda hard, and he isn't completely acclimated to the position. Also, it's two freaking weeks. And Contreras isn't so good that it is that much of a drop-down in talent from him to Federowicz. And we are 15-5 with a ridiculous run differential, despite Montero playing at a replacement level (not factoring in pitch framing). It's really not that big of a deal. If this is a lingering issue that pops up again, you will eventually see Contreras. But, for now, you're just gonna have to live without him.
  4. I was thinking the same thing. But, Federowicz is a guy we can just burn through. If you call Taylor Davis up, then you either have to keep a 40-man spot reserved for him, or you have to risk losing him. If it's just two weeks, then I'd prefer to roll with our bad AAA replacement-level guy that has some MLB experience.
  5. It still is barely an issue.
  6. Yeah, the Pirates and Cards are both going to be among the best teams in baseball again. It will be much sweeter if we are sitting up on top of them all year, though.
  7. Maybe this Goldschmidt guy is actually good, and not just some random Cub Killer. He just took Wainwright deep. It was the second homer of the night giving up by Wainwright, who carries a 7.18 ERA.
  8. Meh... I'm all for having a Darwin Barney/Tommy Le Stella as a bench player on a rookie contract, especially when he is a 14th rounder that I previously had no interest in. I hope he keeps it up.
  9. True, which is why he said La Stella with less power and maybe some more speed and a little better defense. La Stella isn't the perfect comp, either. The point is that just because he is a back-up utility infielder type, that doesn't doesn't mean he is the same kind of player as Darwin Barney.
  10. That sounds alot like the other guys mentioned. LaStella is roughly that kind of player, just he has more secondary bat skills while others field and run better. For a healthy first division club they're all bench type players. Generally I think you can start this kind of player - very high contact and BA in the minors, low on the other stuff, the ability to play or spot the MIF, avg or better speed/baserunning - for a year or two in the mid-20s without being too embarrassed, maybe even get a good year. Definitely would be looking to upgrade the whole time. High contact and defense are younger player skills so these players tend to phase out of starting pretty quickly without power or patience to fall back on. After that they might float around for a long time getting gigs as competent bench/role guys. Yeah, we get it, they're all bench guys that make contact and don't hit for power. They also aren't supremely talented athletically, being unable to play shortstop. They are bench/utility-type guys. But, he's saying they're not all quite the same. Darwin Barney was elite defensively at second and worthless with the bat. Chesny Young has been able to maintain a high batting average, while also walking a good amount. In fact, he's walked a lot more than any other guy you listed. He's also not anywhere near the same level defensively as a few of those guys, like LeMahieu and Barney. All of those guys you listed get what value they have from different avenues. La Stella is probably the best comp offensively. They are low-power guys that make a lot of contact and also take walks. Who knows how they will match up defensively. But, with the bat, they are similar. Chesny Young, to make it in the big leagues, will have to rely on what La Stella has relied on. He won't get by on his defense like Darwin Barney or D.J. LeMahieu. But, that's OK, because he is a much better hitter than Darwin Barney. Darwin Barney just isn't a great comp. They are similar in that they are low-power, high-contact guys that can't play short. But the similarities end there.
  11. Stephen A. with a swing and a miss. http://mlb.mlb.com/images/6/5/2/146415652/083015_chc_arrieta_final_out_med_ont6djs8.gif
  12. Cocky Javy is the best Javy.
  13. Late-inning defense, in the playoffs: 1B - Rizzo 2B - Baez SS - Russell 3B - Bryant LF - Fowler CF - Almora RF - Heyward http://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/glee/images/3/3e/Drooling_homer.gif/revision/latest?cb=20121116203004 and of course, Ross at catcher. And Jake Arrieta on the mound, finishing off his shutout. Gold Glove-caliber defense all over.
  14. You can look forward to scouting reports. Don't expect them to be good.
  15. Late-inning defense, in the playoffs: 1B - Rizzo 2B - Baez SS - Russell 3B - Bryant LF - Fowler CF - Almora RF - Heyward http://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/glee/images/3/3e/Drooling_homer.gif/revision/latest?cb=20121116203004
  16. The South Bend game was cancelled today. Yay! I am going to see them tomorrow, so now I get to see a doubleheader. And I'll get to hopefully check out both Steele and Kellogg.
  17. This is a really great read and it seems very believable to me, without any stats to back me up, that Dex playing too shallow has hurt his defensive value. He's athletic and seems (again all anecdotal) to get good jumps on balls. I'll definitely trade a handful more singles over giving up doubles and triples over his head. Yeah, I'll trade the singles all day in order to take away some extra-base hits over his head. It seems really counterproductive to play that shallow in order to stop some balls from falling in front of you. It also seems like playing shallow would shrink his range down artificially, because balls hit deep or going to tend to hang in the air longer. So the extra balls he could get to by playing shallow aren't going to hang in the air as long. Which means, he has less time to cover ground. And that means his probable catch zone radius is going to be smaller. I wonder if we have any data to back this notion up. Statcast is going to be a great tool to help with defensive positioning. You can plot how often a ball is hit to every spot on the field and how long the ball hangs in the air, and then come up with the optimal spot to stick a guy, based on a catch probability zone.
  18. I'm incredibly fortunate that I was still a lurker back then, because I would have made some posts that would look really bad in hindsight. Wait... I mean, yeah, I was always a fan of that trade. I've been Team Arrieta from Day 1.
  19. Our defense has been pretty great. Let's talk about how great it is. We currently rank first in UZR with 14.7; second place is at 9.2. We also rank first in DRS with 13; second place is at 10. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=21,d http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=8,d If you were to look at the major league leaders in UZR across all positions, we have 5 of the top 20 in MLB. (This is a little silly, since we are mixing in all positions, and this stat measures guys against other guys at their position, on a position-by-position basis. It's also an incredibly small sample size, yada yada yada. But, whatever, it shows we've had a bunch of defensive standouts.) http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=23,d There's no UZR for catcher defense. But, David Ross does rank 6th among catchers in DRS. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d And, more importantly, according to StatCorner, Montero ranks 2nd in pitch framing and Ross ranks 12th. The Cubs' total 5.1 framing runs above average is best in the majors. http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php The one downer: Jorge Soler. Boy, is he terrible. I'm starting to dislike him more for his putrid defense than his underwhelming offense, because he is preventing us from featuring an All-Glove lineup. That leads into my question. What's the lineup defensively when Javy inevitably starts taking more ABs from Jorge? It should be Javy at second and Zobrist to left. But, we seem to have made a pact with Zobrist to leave him put. So, now we have to move our studly third baseman out to left and put Javy at third, which Joe has been doing more often. Or we could keep Bryant at third and let Javy start handling the outfield. Either probably works fine, since we get rid of Jorge's glove. But Javy is so dynamic that he pretty much has to play in the infield. And Bryant has been so good defensively at third, that it is tough to lose some of that value by sticking him in a corner outfield spot.
  20. I saw that and forgot to post about it. I knew he had a decent arm and that he's piled up some outfield assists in the past. But maybe I've been sleeping on his arm? I don't remember any glowing reports about it. But he now has 31 outfield assists in 169 games in RF since 2014.
  21. Great post. I agree with you on just about everything. Post more often!
  22. Good for him. He's 36. What is going on? How?
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