Cubswin11
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Everything posted by Cubswin11
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Long history, don’t know. But recently it seems every pitcher they trade falls apart and breaks at both the major and minor league level and they always seem to unearth the best player in the trade the last ~3 years
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Snell will probably break by Memorial Day, because you don’t trade with the Rays for pitching.
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Wouldn’t have minded him at that price, still plenty of options though. I have a feeling with bring Chatwood back on a similar amount as a make good deal assuming he’s healthy (idk if he is healthy or had any sort of procedure).
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James Harden is an agent of chaos and a complete horsefeathering moron
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Yeah the owners lost revenue but idk how many actually lost money/ran a deficit. They saw a lot of their expenses slashed. I could see how the Ricketts lost money just because of the significant debt burden and service they have for the purchase/renovations/development, but I think they’re somewhat of an outlier. Plus they got the appreciation of the value of the Cubs and they get to depreciate all the real estate, write down a bunch of other stuff, etc.
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Another possible cheap LHH OF option to pair with Ervin, Brett Gardner. He should not cost much turning 38 during the year, question is would he be interested in playing anywhere other than New York and maybe you do have to pay him more to convince him to come. But if he’s willing to come on a cheap 1 year deal he’s a terrific fit. The team could use some red ass, grittiness. He makes a lot of contact (did drop below 80% for the first time last year but shortened year who knows) he still crushed RHP .229/.370/.430 with a 124 wRC+ and he’s at about 115 wRC+ vs RHP for his career. Add him for a LF platoon with Ervin and Pillar for a platoon option for Happ/Heyward and late inning CF defense and we got some grit cooking.
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Yeah I’d really like to add Grossman. Grossman, Reddick or Rosario if we aren’t completely poor plus Pillar would be ideal play it cheap offseason for the OF but still build out depth/supplement the core’s weakness.
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Pairing Ervin in LF (if he’s not the Heyward caddy) with Rosario or Reddick makes some sense to me. Reddick should be cheaper and you can cobble together a productive unit out there. Grossman, Reddick or Rosario, Pillar for a CF/RF platoon role/bench contact bat and a 2B option like Profar (who also can move around and gives the roster flexibility) would be a pretty solid offseason for the offense and shouldn’t cost THAT much. Reddick and Pillar probably only require a 1 year deal (2 if they want to smooth out the AAV), idk what Grossman takes (don’t think a lot but maybe 3 years), Profar and Rosario probably take $6-10 mil AAV over a few years but won’t be that costly.
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Unless he gets hurt I like he has a great chance of making the opening day roster, given our LHP hitting issues and especially because Heyward/Happ need to have some RHH options to play over them. You go with a pretty strict Heyward/Irvin platoon and you’re probably looking at 115-120 wRC+ out of RF.
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Is that really that surprising since the farm system produced starters at like every other spot and we just needed more depth/platoon guys? We had Schwarbs/Happ/Almora/Jorge as internal OF options, Bryant, Javy, Russell, Rizzo, Bote, LaStella, Nico as IF options and Willy/Vic at catcher. Plus Zobrist was around too over that time.
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Still only 27/28 and handles lefties well, career .277/.352/.459 113 wRC+ vs them. Not a bad caddy to pair with Heyward. 40-man is at 37 now. I like this move quite a bit building out the OF depth and working on the LHP hitting issues.
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NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread
Cubswin11 replied to NOLA's topic in Other Sports
Got it, thought there were 1-2, 3 win teams out there -
NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread
Cubswin11 replied to NOLA's topic in Other Sports
You're calling this a win when it's not even halftime? Are you watching the game? -
NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread
Cubswin11 replied to NOLA's topic in Other Sports
Holy horsefeathers, Ben and Brees are absolutely finished. Also what a horrible win for the Bengals. Likely fall far enough now not to get that top LT to keep Burrow from breaking and possibly holding the 3 pick hostage for a trade up. -
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He’s been pretty bad for awhile, but I guess is okay emergency depth. Can kinda do the contact thing and has a 2+ and 4+ win year on the resume. Still under 30.
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Some of the obstacles you'd run into trying to sign Hanser Alberto for a backup/platoon/PH job: - Signing starter workload players in their 20s to backup/platoon/PH roles isn't something to take lightly. This is a guy who has put up essentially 3 fWAR and 4 rWAR between 2019-2020, hit FA at 28, and given the offensive bar at 2B (91 wRC+ in 2020, 94 since 2015) could proooooobably find someone willing to give him more playing time than the RHH side of a platoon - The light side of a platoon isn't fixing this team's contact issues on a day in and day out basis Until players start coming off the board, the pool of players available or possibly available via trade is so much larger and more diverse than the pool of players available in FA that locking yourself into FAs at this stage is jumping the gun I think he’d be used more than just a straight platoon, he’d be given starts vs RHP and get PH opportunities. Does he overall solve the contact issues, no, and there isn’t one realistic move or player out there that does that. But he helps get you there in the aggregate and on the margins, like him starting vs LHP instead of Bote, and if you keep adding another guy or two like Grossman and Pillar beyond Alberto. These are smoothing out the edges moves and players and making sure the bench/platoon/backups aren’t bringing redundant skill sets that the main starters do.
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I guess I could see a fit as like the backup backup infielder, the bat guy to someone's glove guy off the bench, but the skillset is so nichey (essentially a weak defensive 2B that can only hit LHP) it's tough to really see a great fit without creating a new need the same as the old need (a real starting 2B and/or someone not a RHH who compliments his skillset as well as the rest of the non-Rizzo infield off the bench and ideally can take most of the playing time) Right, we’re talking about a backup/platoon start guy/PH. They aren’t going to do everything well and have flaws. But the things he does well are the things the offense struggles with a lot. I just like the fit. This type of add isn’t going to check every box. You could still add Kipnis (or some similar vet) back as a LHH if option too. We literally are one of the worst contact teams in MLB, that needs to change and I don’t think we are going to be able to add star level dudes like DJ who have a whole package. Whoever we add to help with contact is going to have shortfalls elsewhere (be it defense, power, OBP, etc). But that’s okay! The makeup of the majority of the rest of the offense does those things.
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I’m not saying go crazy for Alberto, I suspect he’ll be cheap and want him on a reasonable 1-3 year deal. He has a .322 OBP over his last ~800 PAs, .114 Iso and a ~.750 OPS, along with a 86% contact rate and 146 and 151 wRC+ vs LHP last two years. While he isn’t plus on defense anywhere he isn’t that bad either, seems like you can live with him at multiple spots (can always pull him for Nico, Pillar, etc. later in games). I think he’s a pretty solid fit. The big thing to change the offense is the contact, fewer Ks and LHP hitting, imo. Alberto brings that and can move around. Bringing in a guy like that probably means giving up a little something elsewhere (like OBP/ISO) but that’s fine with me because we have a lot of that elsewhere.
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I think moving Bote for something does make a lot of sense. His spot on the roster seems like a clear spot to swap out for that contact/versatile guy. Sending Bote out for something (honestly don’t know what his value is but maybe a Montgomery type SP/swing man?) and then signing Hanser Alberto makes a lot of sense to me. He can play IF/OF (metrics are a bit mixed but doesn’t seem incompetent anywhere), does the contact thing and hits lefties well (another offense issue) he does a lot of Adam Frazier type things. Gonna keep banging the trade out Bote and bring in Alberto/Grossman/Pillar trio drum as good and likely cheap way to help diversify the offense. It seems like a very clear, easy and cheap path to make decently significant offensive profile changes without making any drastic trades.
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I don't see how Frazier is an upgrade over Bote, especially when Bote is locked in at $3 mil per season for awhile and Frazier could exceed that in arbitration in 2021. He’s not necessarily an upgrade in overall value in terms of adding more WAR and Bote is certainly on a better contract. But Frazier fits the roster better and helps supplements the shortfalls with the contact, defense and versatility while Bote adds to the weakness of the lack of contact/Ks/etc and is more redundant when trying to reshape things and make the offense more diverse. Imo.
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- Lindor's salary keeps climbing in this thread but FTR MLBTR's estimates have him at max $21.5 and two estimates under $20 million - Sportsrac has the active payroll right now at $136,862,500 and LT payroll @ $165,060,833 and $44,939,167 below the $210 threshold - Drop $15 and you're at basically $60 million in cap space and a little above $120 million in hard commits - Add even the high estimates on my offseason and they're $9-10 million below the cap and below $175 No, it’s ~$160 of real money currently. Look at the chart in the link. Have to add in a 40-man estimate (which isn’t a lot), player benefits and all teams leave a buffer. The spotrac link even breaks it down that way now that I look. https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2020/11/9/21556406/cubs-2021-payroll-luxury-tax-preliminary-estimate
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Question: Does the team I wrote out actually pass $175? Doesn't seem so Yes it does, quite easily. We are at ~$160 real payroll and ~$170 LT payroll right now with arb estimates (I think some are light). Your proposal is sending ~$15 mil out and bringing in ~$50mil with Lindor and the trade/FA guys (netting ~$35 mil brought in and pushing a ~$190/200 real and LT payroll). Lindor (~25) Margot (3), Schwarbs and Lester (probably 4-8 each, so call it ~$10 mil combined) alone will be ~$40 mil.
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If we're actually counting the pennies, the offseason I presented does not bring the payroll to even 2020 levels, sets up a dramatic drop post-2021 when the farm system can reasonably enough be expected to start putting out multiple starters over a 2-3 year window, and pretty much guarantees the Cubs get a draft pick with a corresponding boost in amateur budget It’s not about 2020 levels, it’s bringing it to a range where nobody thinks we are willing to go. Again, what’s the payroll range you think they can go this year? Because everyone seems to think it’s the ~$175 mil range.
