CubsWin

Agreed. I just can't shake the feeling that the Cubs aren't going to get anything close to the new "market value" and I really don't want to wait until 2020 for significant added revenue. The increasing pile of things they've missed out on, are missing out on or just seem to be in limbo from is killing me. Tell me about it. I'm having a hard time waiting 3 weeks to see if they miss out on Tanaka.

Rockies - 2009 overall 4.33 ERA, 1.387 WHIP, Away from Coors 3.13 ERA, 1.189 WHIP Rockies - 2010 it was the reverse. He was terrible on the road. Go figure. Rockies - 2011 overall 4.76 ERA, 1.426 WHIP. Away from Coors 4.28 ERA, 1.321 WHIP. The rest of career was spent pitching in the AL East. Typically coming from the AL to the NL leads to statistical improvement for a pitcher. He's not great, but as a 5th starter who will be 31 until September, he's a maybe. Yep. I'd actually expect a Hammel acquisition if the team doesn't land Tanaka. I wouldn't mind it either. I'm not sure what to think of Hammel because of his year to year fluctuations in hit outcomes and swinging strike fluctuations. One year he draws 50% grounders, the next he's drawing 15% IFBs, and then his K/9 doubles and gets cut down significantly the following year. I don't get him. He's had prior success in a large sample, and prior failures in large samples. Perhaps better coaching can help him improve. Well, Bosio has done it the last two years in a row. Hammel doesn't strike me as a guy who would improve enough to be flippable at the deadline for very much, but who knows. Certainly for what he is likely to cost, it wouldn't be a bad gamble to take. That said, I'll forgo signing Hammel if it means getting the other guy... Signing deadline is exactly three weeks away. Come on, Theo, work your magic and beat the odds.

Rockies - 2009 overall 4.33 ERA, 1.387 WHIP, Away from Coors 3.13 ERA, 1.189 WHIP Rockies - 2010 it was the reverse. He was terrible on the road. Go figure. Rockies - 2011 overall 4.76 ERA, 1.426 WHIP. Away from Coors 4.28 ERA, 1.321 WHIP. The rest of career was spent pitching in the AL East. Typically coming from the AL to the NL leads to statistical improvement for a pitcher. He's not great, but as a 5th starter who will be 31 until September, he's a maybe.

This same guy wrote this article previously... http://sports.yahoo.com/news/three-pitchers-chicago-cubs-acquire-david-price-isnt-162800724--mlb.html For those who don't feel like reading more from this guy, he lists Tanaka as the #1 priority for the pitching staff this offseason. Oh boy...

At the right price and length of contract, sure.

The pic with his bio just about says it all... http://contributor.yahoo.com/user/189287/brian_davis.html

Even more on topic, but equally un-newsworthy, is this terrible article from some yahoo, college kid named Brian Davis. Is the internet really this starved for content? http://sports.yahoo.com/news/please-chicago-cubs-don-39-t-sign-masahiro-175600795--mlb.html

Just take it with a shot of vodka. Or to bring us back to the topic, Sake. Nice.

I think that's just a testament to how deep this organization is. Plus, when you get down to top 30/40, it's all subjective anyway. I'm just glad the Cubs have guys worth mentioning that deep down the list.

Yeah, waaayyy too early to be talking about that. Sure he's struggled so far but he's 19 for crying out loud!

The one thing that reassured me about Darvish was his 6'5" frame. I don't know if there is any data stating that an ideal, larger pitchers frame lends itself to longevity and ability to handle workload (in fact I know of one that shows size doesn't impact this), but for some reason, I think GMs generally feel more comfortable thinking that Darvish can handle the workload better than someone Tanaka's size.

Wave #1 - Baez, Alcantara, Vizcaino, Hendricks, Villanueva, possibly Bryant Wave #2 - Bryant, Edwards, Soler, Johnson Wave #3 - Almora, Candelario, Vogelbach, possibly the 2014 1st rounder Wave #4 - Blackburn, Zastryzny, Maples, Dunston Jr., Underwood Some of those may never contribute. Others may emerge like Bruno, Hannemann, Skulina, Balaguert, Contreras. There are also a bevy of power relief arms in the system like Neil Ramirez, Armando Rivero, Corey Black, Juan Carlos Paniagua and Trey Masek. And then there are the young, lottery tickets Eloy Jimenez, Gleyber Torres, Jen-Ho Tseng, Erick Leal and Marck Malave, There are things to watch at the big league level this season (namely the question marks known as Arrieta, Olt, possibly Lake as well as the continued development Castro, Rizzo, Castillo etc.), but the won-loss record may not be pretty. However, watching the prospects develop this year should be a lot of fun.

I'm not convinced that the Yankees are willing to spend what it is going to take to sign Tanaka. Aren't they trying to stay under the luxury tax threshold to avoid increased penalties? There is no telling what the Dodgers will do though. If they really want Tanaka, they will probably get him. You're correct. If they don't get under the luxury tax limit this season, they will be paying 50% tax on any salary over the limit. Last season they paid 40% and it amounted to $29.1 million. That's a lot of money to spend to get nothing in return. If they do get under the limit for one season, the next time they exceed the limit, the tax rate resets to just 17.5%. So the Yankees have the motivation to spend wisely this off season. Whether they will or not is yet to be seen. If ARod gets suspended, it frees them up to spend on Tanaka. The Dodgers are a whole different matter. Apparently, Tanaka wants to play on the west coast. That makes perfect sense, it being a lot closer to his home. LA will be paying 30% on any overages in this coming season. If the Yankees say [expletive] it, they will be just as powerful a suitor financially as the Dodgers, but I'd definitely handicap the Dodgers as the most likely destination right now. One thing could change all that, though. We assume they have the money, but do they want to spend it when they already have a deep rotation and will have to shell out so much next season to keep Kershaw. The Yankees want to stay under the luxury cap, the Dodgers have to deal with Kershaw, and the Cubs are highly motivated and have the financial flexibility that those other teams don't. This should be interesting...

The wording on that last sentence being part of the requirement for his performance in spring training is debatable at best. Maybe you need to work on your composition (if it needs to be said, I'm just [expletive] around with you). Anyway, the point is I don't think his role on the team or the level he plays at this year should be based in much of any way on what happens in spring training, whether it be his numbers or on subjective evaluation. Okay. We have a difference of opinion. I think with young players it's important to see how they are developing. In Lake's case, I think he's got a lot of developing left to do, and logic suggests that with this front office's sabermetric focus, they see the same thing. If he doesn't show improvement (some of which was shown in winter ball) this spring, I would hope they'd start him in AAA. The only reason why they wouldn't is if the lack of depth on the major league roster forces them to bring him north and they give him enough playing to learn and develop at the major league level.

I think it was said back in October and the quote was along the lines of ideally liking him to start 2014 in AAA, not that he would definitely. I'll see if I can dig it up. It may have been said on radio or TV though...

I don't know where you heard that. Hoyer has said he's going to play a ton. And after all the time he spent on the big league team last year and the room that was made for him, I don't see any way at all he starts at Iowa. Where did you hear that? ...and I trust that our FO wouldn't hand out full time position jobs based on hitting in spring training like you're implying. I said it would be 3 things. How Lake was hitting, whether he was having good ABs (I trust we are on the same page as far as what those are in this front office's mind) and improved/above average defense. I also said that this type of spring training evaluation would apply to a young, still developing player like Lake, not a veteran with a well established history of performance. If he's not having good ABs, his OF defense isn't above average and he isn't hitting the ball well, I would hope he would start in AAA. Wouldn't you? Not seeing where you said all that stuff before this post. Um, you quoted it in this post above, even bolded parts of it... "If he does go north, it will be because he hit and had good ABs in ST. He showed impressive defense in winter ball. That will need to continue as well." That's saying all 3 things. Don't mean to be too snarky here, but I guess reading comprehension applies to all of us...

I think it was said back in October and the quote was along the lines of ideally liking him to start 2014 in AAA, not that he would definitely. I'll see if I can dig it up. It may have been said on radio or TV though...

I don't know where you heard that. Hoyer has said he's going to play a ton. And after all the time he spent on the big league team last year and the room that was made for him, I don't see any way at all he starts at Iowa. Where did you hear that? ...and I trust that our FO wouldn't hand out full time position jobs based on hitting in spring training like you're implying. I said it would be 3 things. How Lake was hitting, whether he was having good ABs (I trust we are on the same page as far as what those are in this front office's mind) and improved/above average defense. I also said that this type of spring training evaluation would apply to a young, still developing player like Lake, not a veteran with a well established history of performance. If he's not having good ABs, his OF defense isn't above average and he isn't hitting the ball well, I would hope he would start in AAA. Wouldn't you?

Agreed, there is no sure thing when it comes to baseball or any sport for that matter. But the Cubs have a lot of possibilities. A lot more possibilities than most other teams of have a very good starting 3B in the near future and having him at a controlled cost for a long time. Sure? No. Really good situation? Yes. I don't know if the Cubs FO has penciled Lake in as the starting LFer. The last thing I've heard them say is they'd like him to start the year in AAA. If we can see the underlying numbers on Lake, I trust Theo and Jed can, too. If he does go north, it will be because he hit and had good ABs in ST. He showed impressive defense in winter ball. That will need to continue as well. The Cubs could well have a starting OF of Sweeney, Ruggiano and Schierholtz. That's not very good either. But at least the underlying sabermetrics on Ruggiano show a likelihood that last season's numbers were an outlier. The Cubs rotation is weak. Arrieta is not in there because of a "superficially strong small sample size second half" aka a SSSSSSH. This front office, unlike Hendry's, is very sabermetrically savvy. He's in there out of necessity. He can't be sent down without being exposed to waivers and the Cubs want to see what Bosio can do with him. I don't think they're fooled by what he did at the end of last season. And I think it is inaccurate to say that Donnie Murphy is even on the 25-man roster at this point. The Cubs have brought in a number of other scrubs (Ryan Roberts, Chris Valaika, "Punch and" Jeudy Valdez, Walter Ibarra, etc.) to compete with Murphy. Whoever sucks the least will likely get the roster spot. I doubt it will have anything to do with how they performed last season. I think so, too. But it's also possible that Jonathan Sanchez, Paolo Espino, Carlos Pimentel, Tommy Hottovy and Brett Marshall were brought in to compete for the 7th spot in the pen and move to AAA as depth if they don't. The only new guys you could pencil in are Veres and Wright. They, along with Russell, Strop, Parker and Villnueva, make up the top 6. I believe the Cubs would like Grimm and Rondon to be stretched out in the AAA rotation. Neil Ramirez is expected to join them there. Rusin will be competing for the Cubs rotation with Rosscup and Cabrera competing for the last bullpen spot. Depth and competition are good things. Injuries happen in ST, and other teams may need to fill spots due to injury as well. I don't read too much into signing all the minor league contract guys, but I totally agree that there is a greater likelihood of Russell being traded because of the additions of Wright and Veres. Truer words were never spoken. Vizcaino's future is very much in doubt, and after him the cupboard is bare in regards to TOR potential in AAA. However, I think it's safe to call Pierce Johnson and CJ Edwards as above A+ at this point in time. This season will tell the Cubs a lot about what they have in those two. Oh, I think the Cubs FO has made it very clear they intend to use their financial flexibility in the near future. Outside of spending on Tanaka, the timing isn't quite right yet. 2014 will tell them a lot about when to start using their flexibility to fill out their major league roster. But clearly the time to start spending on multiple fronts is not now. Seeing how Castro, Rizzo and Castillo do this season will tell them a lot. The performances of Olt, Arrieta, Vizcaino, Strop and to a lesser extent Sweeney will answer a lot of questions about when to start spending and on what/whom to spend it on. Add to that, seeing how Baez, Alcantara, Bryant and Soler perform provides a lot of useful data going into the 2014 off season. I don't think there's any question as to their intent to use their financial flexibility, just as to when that window opens and who will be available to spend it on. And that starts with Tanaka.

No way. Not how I would have them ranked, but how I could see BP doing it. Parks said CJ would be near the back of the Rangers top 10, they've got 6 top 101 guys. Parks also has an affinity for young guys in the lower levels and has been complementary of Candelario previously. Again, not how I'd rank them, but I can see BP doing it. Parks said in his twitter conversations yesterday that CJ was in the back end of their 101.

Will he cost that much coming off of a shoulder injury? Probably not, but my initial thought is that he'll cost something. Since RH reliever isn't really much of a need at all, I think Crain is one of those guys who you can throw some money at if you miss out on Tanaka and it not really hurt you. Unlike say, signing Ubaldo for 5 years or something where there's repercussions beyond simply adding that guy to the 2014 roster. I would hope, based his low cost, that the Cubs could still afford Crain's salary even if they did sign Tanaka.

Will he cost that much coming off of a shoulder injury?

I think the Cubs would have to do a lot more than that to show him that they're ready to compete, but it sure wouldn't hurt. He's no dummy. He and his agent know that the Cubs are well guided and on the rise. Who knows whether that will matter. I'm sure the Cubs will make him feel wanted. I hope they have the money and the willingness to spend it. At this point, no one here knows what the deciding factor will be.

What a lovely Christmas sentiment. Merry Tanaka Day, New Era.

Yeah, no [expletive]. He better get that too! Merry Christmas.