CubsWin

6'1" isn't that short for a pitcher. Pedro Strop is 6'1".

Per Muskat: Chris Rusin is at Wrigley to help out with all the pitchers used in last night's marathon, but can't be added until Bonifacio is traded or some other move is made.

Thrilled with this. It's an upside and win in 2015 move, exactly what I want to see the Cubs focus on now. The Cubs will have the ability to roster the players they really want to protect. The Red Sox get their pick of the litter of any rule 5 eligible player that doesn't get selected. Low price/possible high reward with possible impact on next season and beyond (Felix doesn't become a FA until 2018). Man, Boston must have really wanted to get rid of this guy. That may be a red flag, but it also could be something a change of scenery fixes.

I was browsing the VSL/DSL rosters the other day and came up with 6 guys to keep an eye on based on stat scouting and DOB: Alfredo Colorado Erling Moreno (well, this one was kind of obvious) Eugenio Palma Luis Hidalgo Wladimir Galindo Yohan Matos I pay attention to those guys plus Frandy de la Rosa who got a big bonus two years ago. I wouldn't say no one else cares about Yohan Matos, Truffle. :wink: Pedigree/Bonus Baby Delarosa (18), Moreno (17), Galindo (17) and Matos (17). Based on their signing bonuses alone, we have reason to believe they have decent tools. And all are performing reasonably well, especially considering their ages. Non-Bonus Position Players OF Luis Hidalgo - VSL (18) .318/.370/.430 SS Andruw Monasterio - VSL (17) .292/.363/.350, 10 SB (highest number in the VSL without being caught) With pitchers, I'm willing to go a little older especially if they have good size and stats. Pedro Araujo, now in Mesa, had performed well in the DSL the last two seasons and was called up shortly before his 21st birthday this year. He's not anyone I would call a prospect, but he's stateside which is more than most DSL/VSL guys can say. Non-Bonus Pitchers RHP Oscar De La Cruz - DSL (19) 6'4", 200 lbs. RHP Santiago Rodriguez - DSL (20) 6'0", 185 lbs. LHP Eugenio Palma - VSL (17) 5'11", 170 lbs. RHP Jose Morel - DSL (19), 6'6", 204 lbs. De La Cruz has prototypical size and this is essentially his first full go around in the DSL despite being 19 (he pitched 11 innings last year). DSL hitters are averaging .181 against him. At 20, it's surprising that Rodriguez is in his first season at any professional level. He started out well, not allowing an earned run in May/June. More importantly he only allowed 3 unearned runs in 32 innings (defense is so sloppy at this level that ERAs don't mean all that much) and he held opponents to a .190 avg. in June. But his peripherals were unremarkable and he was 20, so I didn't think much of him. But all of a sudden, he's become a strikeout machine. In his last three starts, he's struckout 9 with no walks, 9 with 1 walk and 14 with no walks. He's K'd 42 against 4 walks in 28.2 IP in July with good numbers overall on the season. So, for me, he's worth a follow. Palma is 17 and is putting up good numbers. He's a small lefty (almost exactly the same size as Carlos A. Rodriguez) and is most likely another soft-tosser, but who knows what his actual scouting report is. Morel is only intriguing to me because of his size, he's K'ing almost a batter per inning and he hasn't sucked. I wish I knew more... Alfredo Colorado is 18, but only pitched in 2 games (June 16th and 19th). His numbers weren't all that good, and it's just not enough for me to go on. He's not one that I follow, but what do I know... Most of these guys, bonus baby or not, will never make it, but they're fun to track and dream on. The Starlin Castros of the world that sign for $45,000 and come out of nowhere always keep me coming back and checking the box scores every night.

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=11282088 It could just be posturing to get interested teams to meet the Cubs asking price, but based on Theo's comments in the ESPN interview posted by David and linked above, the Cubs are more likely to trade guys that will be free agents at year's end than those with extra years of control. Both Russell and Wright have one more season of arb eligibility left before becoming FAs in 2016. That doesn't mean one of them won't be traded, just that they'd be more expensive than other left-handed relievers (that will be FAs at the end of the year) being made available by other teams, thus lowering their likelihood of being traded. Players that are straight up FAs at the end of the season are Carlos Villanueva, Nate Schierholtz and Emilio Bonafacio. Fujikawa has a team option for 2015 at $5.5 million (that will not be picked up) with a $500,000 buyout which I guess would make him a FA despite still having his three years of arbitration left. Villanueva has pitched well since a horrid start, but I still don't think he carries enough value for contending teams to pony up much to get him. There are a lot better options out there, so if he goes, he'll go cheap. Schierholtz, schmeerholtz. Whatever. 'Nuff said. The one player that fits Theo's description that should have decent value to contending teams, is healthy and currently playing well is Bonafacio. His versatility sets him apart from other position players on the market and should increase other team's interest. He's my pick for most likely to go. The presence of Alcantara makes him even more expendable. My hope is that he'll bring back something decent like an A-ball level lottery ticket. There's a fairly long list of teams in need of a second baseman with the Giants and Blue Jays at the top of the list.

He's been reported as one of the FA pitchers the Cubs were interested in this offseason. Any trade would make it that much more expensive to sign him. I take it that's because he wouldn't cost interested teams a draft pick and thus there'll be a bigger market/more competition for him? The way the Cubs FO has gone about bidding for FAs has been to determine what they think the player is worth and not going above that amount. In that sense, if all teams did that, being traded shouldn't affect his price. But I doubt all teams approach spending on FAs with the same discipline.

9 games at C, 9 in LF, the algorithm has to pick one I guess I didn't even realize he was thought of as a guy that would play LF. You'd think they'd promote Marra or Zagunis to KC at this point. Yeah, there were a few quotes from Hoyer when Zagunis was drafted about how he too could play the OF (even CF), though that was when it was thought he and Schwarber would be at the same level. Remillard and Brockmeyer are at KC so there's no need to push Marra or Zagunis. And given how tough catcher is to learn defensively, I have no problem moving these guys slowly. Yeah, I never took the LF distinction to mean anything other than he sometimes plays there, and I take that as a good sign for a minor league catcher who has the tools to stay there. There are so many catchers at every minor league level that if the guy wasn't playing some other position, it would tell me he lacks athleticism and/or his bat isn't good enough to justify keeping him in the line-up on days when one of the other catching prospects is behind the plate.

but they just got out of the pool pond "Pool, pond. Pond would be good for you."

There are a lot of options here. With OF assets like Soler, Almora and McKinney in the system and Alcantara already up and a potential infield of Bryant, Castro, Baez and Rizzo with Addison still coming, being able to have Schwarber play catcher reasonably well is tantalizing. I don't think he's blocked from playing in the OF by any means as some of those players may not transition well to the bigs and trades could change the landscape at any time. But I've read about his improvement at catcher in his junior year and of his strong desire to stay at the position. His work ethic matches his desire, so now all that is left is to let him try. Kyle upped his CS% from 19% (8 out of 42) to 37% (16 our of 43) from his sophomore to junior year, and he's currently at 50% (9 out of 18) in the small sample as a pro. MLB league leaders in this category are usually in the mid-40s with the league average closer to 30%, maybe a tad lower. Jason Varitek's hovered around 30% for his MLB career (upper 20s as he got older) which was consistent with his minor league average of 29%. Welington Castillo's was 29% last year and lower so far this season. Varitek's defense was never his forte, his offense and leadership were. Those two qualities Schwarber seems to have in spades. Varitek was taken 14th overall out of college in 1994 before the draft slotting system was put in place, oddly about where Schwarber was predicted to go by many experts in this year's draft. Jason was 6'2", 230 lbs., almost the exact same size as Kyle (just two inches taller). His first full season was as a 27 year old in '99. From '99 to '07, he hit .268/.352/.449 averaging 26 doubles, 16 HRs, 51 walks and 95 Ks in 124 games a year. Schwarber's early minor league performance is far superior to Varitek's minor league numbers, though it's not quite apples to apples as Jason went straight to AA after being drafted as a college senior (he was drafted with the 21st overall pick as a junior the year prior). Varitek hit .247/.346/.387 in 998 AA plate appearances (slightly better in his 2nd go around). It's fair to assume people expect Schwarber to put up better numbers than that when he reaches AA. Some have concerns that the wear and tear of playing catcher would hurt his offensive production. Let's say it does. Would you be okay if the Cubs got similar MLB career numbers as Varitek? Of course, this completely depends on Kyle's ability to develop his receiving skills as catching is about a lot more than just controlling the running game. If Schwarber follows the unlikely timeline that Kris Bryant is on, his ETA would be early-2016. But what if Schwarber took 2+ years to work on his receiving skills (a full season at AA and another year-plus at AAA). He then came up mid-season 2017 when he was 24 (and Castillo is 30), took over at catcher at 25 and proceeded to hit .270/.350/.450 during his prime like Varitek? I'd take that, especially if the Cubs OF was adequately manned and hitting well. But what say you? Is Varitek an accurate comp for Schwarber? Is his bat being in the line-up early-2016 more valuable than the advantage the Cubs would have with his production as a full-time catcher starting mid-2017? I'm not ready to write him off at catcher just yet, and I hope the Cubs give him a chance to prove himself before doing so themselves.

Oh, no. Don't tell me you think this description is slightly pessimistic. I'm trying to keep my feet on the ground here. Somebody poke holes in the likelihood of the scenario actually happening...

Let's assume that Alcantara, Bryant, Baez, Vizcaino and Hendricks are with the big league club and not on mid-season prospect lists a year from now. We can't know how players will have progressed/performed between now and then, so the order will likely change, but here's who would be left. 1. Russell (Top 5) 2. Soler (Top 30?) 3. Almora (Top 40?) 4. Schwarber (Top 50?) 5. Edwards (Top 100) 6. Tseng (Top 100) 7. McKinney (Top 100) 8. Johnson 9. Underwood 10. Blackburn 11. Jimenez 12. Vogelbach 13. Clifton 14. Torres 15. Stinnett 16. Sands 17. Zastryzny 18. Torrez 19. Black 20. Zagunis 21. Hernandez 22. Skulina 23. Mejia 24. Remillard 25. Steele 26. Baez 27. Norwood 28. Matos 29. Galindo 30. Moreno Again, the order is unimportant, but the Cubs will have guys worth following 30 deep. And that doesn't include the player taken in what should be a higher top 10 pick in the 2015 draft or Dylan Cease who won't throw a competitive pitch until 2016. There's still 7 guys worthy of top 100 consideration (and you could argue more), so there's serious top end depth as well as young talent with a chance peppered throughout the rest of the list. Now here's the fun part. With that type of minor league system still intact, here's the likely big league roster mid-season next year. C - Castillo 1B - Rizzo 2B - Baez SS - Castro 3B - Bryant LF - Lake/Trade/FA CF - Alcantara RF - Ruggiano/Coghlan (with a Soler call-up on the horizon) Rotation - Arrieta, FA, Wood, Jackson, Hendricks, maybe Grimm, 2nd FA?, etc. Bullpen - Vizcaino, Strop, Rondon, Ramirez, Grimm, Rivero, Rosscup, Russell, etc., whoever... Bench - Lopez/FA, Valbuena, Olt, Kalish, etc. It needs starting pitching/improvement from Wood, but that team could, COULD, make things interesting. It's odd to put together a mostly home grown line-up like the one above and actually have it be probable. Not necessarily setting the league on fire (there are a lot of rookies in there), but the actual line-up seems...dare I say, likely. Something's got to go wrong. Kyle, help me out here, man. Talk me down.

They must have confidence in his hamstring. This Cubs FO is notoriously patient and cautious with their top prospects. Soler hasn't attempted to steal yet. When he pinch hit on his scheduled off day (2 on, 1 off is the pattern so far), he got on and was immediately taken out for a pinch runner. So, even though Russell was caught stealing, it's a good sign he even tried...

But of course, MWV.

Hendricks starting Tuesday for the Cubs.

I've only ever concerned myself with MiLB box scores, never standings/playoff implications. Anyone interested in educating me? Most leagues have their first half division winner and second half division winner make the playoffs (some have additional wild card playoff berths too). And the D-Cubs are currently a half game out of first in the FSL North in the 2nd half. That's interesting. Thanks!

I've only ever concerned myself with MiLB box scores, never standings/playoff implications. Anyone interested in educating me? Most leagues have their first half division winner and second half division winner make the playoffs (some have additional wild card playoff berths too). And the D-Cubs are currently a half game out of first in the FSL North in the 2nd half.

*checks Kevin Encarnacion's KC numbers* [expletive], another summer of this [expletive]? I'm sure you found that he didn't do very well in those 16 games. And then didn't bother to check his numbers in Boise. And was then severely injured in a car crash and hasn't played since, making him an awful example. But I apologize for my interest in somebody who isn't marveled over in every thread. SCS, I'm sorry, but you don't get to feel righteously indignant on this one. The reason why people don't and shouldn't care about Roberto Caro as a prospect is because of his age relative to his level, that he is repeating this level for the third time...and the fact that he isn't good. You shouldn't be getting pissed about the response you've gotten. Don't chase this windmill. One can think a 17 year old in the VSL or DSL has a chance of being a decent prospect especially if he's performing well, sometimes an 18 year old if they're doing really well (late bloomers and all). Maaaybe a 19 year old if he's a pitcher and is dominant. And almost always a prospect worth following won't spend more than one season there. Some exceptions have occurred to that rule, but not many. But you just advocated for Roberto Caro who is 20 (will turn 21 in just over two months) which makes him 3 years older than most legit prospects in this league. He has spent 3 seasons at the same level and has never been promoted. His hit tool is lacking, hitting just .254 last year and just .279 this year. Lots of people can draw walks in these leagues because they face so many inexperienced pitchers who lack control, so K/BB ratios are almost always misleading and OBPs inflated. Advocating for him is like backing a 24 year old (who is about to 25) and his repeating Kane County for the third year in a row while only producing okay numbers.

Quite a bit, from what I've read.

Are there any early indications as to how the 2015 crop of IFAs are looking as compared to this year and last?

Last season I grabbed Almora, Shoulders, and Candelario at Appleton. I wouldn't necessarily be admitting this publicly, but...

Wow. I say 3-4 weeks of vastly different, improved production from the start of his season isn't enough to draw a conclusion from but might be sign of progression. You say that 3 games in which he didn't hit well is enough for you to say he hasn't learned anything and can discount his last three plus weeks. Okay.

Obviously. That's why you have to wait and see with Almora. Could just be a hot streak. Might be actual progression. I never said the hot streak meant anything by itself. Don't really see the need to create a straw man here.

For prospects it's all about development not so much about performance from beginning to end. Not throwing out early data just using it as a reference point. For players in their first year at a given level, especially those who are a year or two young for their league, where you start is much less important than where you finish.

he was starting to slow down again and kyle worked his magic on him again a day or two ago I don't care so much about the batting-average fluctuations, but hitting home runs once in awhile is good for him. But he's still got on OPS of like .675 in A+. That's not exactly a good thing. We will have to wait and see if he reverts and this has just been a hot 3-4 weeks (coming into today and since June 18th - .341/.378/.518, 12 K/5 BB, with 4 doubles, 1 triple and 3 HRs, now 4) or whether this is true progression. But I'm less swayed by how a player (who is in his 1st go around in a league and is young for it) starts the season than how he finishes it.

i don't where this idea comes from. his line in daytona last year was .281/.343/.467/.810. it's fine for a 21 year old in a pitcher's league, but he hit 8 home runs in 55 games. it's not like he's been annihilating each level like bryant has done. I don't know about rape, but what sets Soler apart is the peripherals (as many have said). He has massive power yet doesn't strike out all that much and he walks at a good clip. The main thing is the contact ability combined with the power, though. I took weis21's statement of how Soler is treating minor league pitching as referring to this year only. I agree with David as to the contact ability and strike zone judgement so far, but also his High-A numbers were last year, Truffle, and this is this year. I get that you were simply responding to the idea that Soler has been hitting like this his whole career like Bryant, but if a player is truly progressing, what he did last year is somewhat irrelevant in the discussion of is he ready for promotion this year. He's been out with the hamstring for part of this season, but it's not like he hasn't played at all. He was tied for the most at bats on the Mesa Solar Sox when he played in the AFL last year. He played all spring. He's had time to face higher quality pitching, receive coaching and progress. Perhaps he has improved or perhaps this is just a ridiculous hot streak. That's why the Cubs should wait to see if this keeps up for another 2-3 weeks. I don't think anyone is saying he should be called up for good anytime soon (nor do I think you're saying anyone is), but if this possible hot streak turns into a hot month of OPSing 1.400, then I think his development would be best served by facing more sophisticated pitching that would more readily expose what holes he may have.