CubsWin

2018 11th rounder Riley "Wild Thing" Thompson is making his pro debut tonight for Eugene.

Myrtle Beach reliever (and my favorite underdog prospect) Jhon Romero gave up his 1st earned run since June 24th and 2nd since May 13th, a stretch in which he pitched 22.1 innings allowing 14 hits and 4 walks against 30 Ks for a .175/.221/.238 slash line, a WHIP of 0.81 and an ERA of 0.40. He wound up getting the save, but I guess he was due...

Jason Vosler has been hitting for average and power since his promotion to AAA. He added his 16th HR of the year tonight regaining the organizational lead in dingers from a tie with Trent Giambrone. But he's shown a disturbing lack of patience/zone awareness thus far in Iowa striking out 23 times in 63 at bats with ZERO walks. Some of this can be chalked up to adjusting to his first time in the PCL, but the good news is, not only did Vosler jack one out tonight, he also drew his first base on balls. Yay...

Some insight as to what Brendon Little has been going through in his first full pro season from Patrick Mooney at The Athletic today. It confirms what I think at least most of us are aware of, that the Cubs are process-oriented in the early going of a player's development and less concerned with production (to which we as stats geeks and box score followers have the most access and thus have a tendency to place too much importance on and can overreact to). That all makes sense. The most concerning part for me was him talking about "learning the hard way" that his fastball won't get the job done if he's unable to throw his other pitches for strikes. This isn't an uncommon thing for pitchers, but it seems to put to rest the notion that his velocity was diminished on purpose as a part of his developmental plan or will magically return at some point. As his mechanics get refined and his confidence in his ability to locate his FB improves, perhaps he'll regain a few ticks on it, but his apparent drop in velo from 92-94 in the first two innings to 88-91 the rest of the way is still baffling and concerning.

Abbot really hasn't been that much different at MB than he was in SB. Walks are up a bit, but the difference in results is a ridiculous .394 BABIP against. That won't last. He's even induced a lot more grounders upon being promoted. It's all SSS of course, but the K's are still there for him. Edit: Whoops. .391 BABIP against. Still ridiculously high. Does anyone have a report on his fastball velocity? I'm talking about Abbott. If he can gains a few ticks on his fastball he becomes really interesting in my opinion. He has a really good cutter/slider (whatever you want to call it) and good command and some deception. 92-94

I agree with your assessment that he's a prove-it-at-every-level guy and it's encouraging that his K% has risen in AA. It's also encouraging that his swing strike % (10.5%) is also above average (around 9.5% usually in AA) denoting a certain level of deception. What worries me though is that despite that apparent deception, AA hitters are batting. 276 against him which is sharply up from previous seasons. In some ways, this is to be expected, right? He's facing more advanced hitters, so he quite naturally will be giving up more hits. But you'd also expect serious prospects to develop as they face better hitters. The evidence is incomplete on this front. Southern League batters hit .305 against him in April, .288 in May and just .223 in June. If June isn't an outlier, then he'll rise up my boards. But so far in July (2 starts), he's allowed a .295 BAA. The old school, tried and true benchmarks for me when giving a pitcher a once over, before diving in deeper, is age relative to level, BAA, WHIP, K-to-BB ratio, K/9 and BB/9. In levels from AA and lower, if the BAA is below .230, the WHIP below 1.15, the K/9 higher than 9 and BB/9 below 3 (and if the K% is less than 1 per inning than a solid K:BB ratio better than 3:1), I'm impressed. Admittedly, having benchmarks like that will result in some prospects slipping through and surprising me with their success later on. But I'm a professional actor, so I don't care. Robinson may indeed be one who succeeds without fitting my personal profile, but if he can't get AA hitters out at a considerably better rate than he did in the 1st half (.281), I wonder how he'll fare in AAA without taking a noticeable step forward in his development. The Cubs pitcher Robinson is most oft compared to is Kyle Hendricks. Kyle's BAA prior to AAA were .183 in SS-A, .253 in Low and High A and .227 in AA. I was intrigued by Hendricks after his A-ball year in 2012 but I didn't see 2013 coming in which he took a big step forward. Hendricks' minor league WHIPs were below 1.10 every year. Robinson have been 1.59, 1.09 last year which put him on the map and 1.26 so far in AA. Right now, Robinson has been good in AA at 24. Hendricks dominated AA at 22. If Duncan can continue to improve throughout the 2nd half, I'll reassess.

I wonder if Amaya is one of those extremely inconsistent defenders, because I've seen both a report that he's raw behind the plate, as well as a report that he's advanced defensively as a catcher. Both from this year. I haven't been able to catch enough games to form an opinion on my own yet. Maybe it’s both? He’s still raw overall but advanced for age/level?? That's my sense. He simply hasn't had the reps behind the plate to be consistent yet. He's 19 and has played just under 1200 innings behind the plate in 3 pro seasons. While that may sound exhausting to a 49-year-old like me, we all know getting consistently excellent at that position takes time. In the games I've watched over the last two seasons, he's looked raw on some nights and smooth on others. I've seen him crossed up by some pitches and beautifully frame another for a strike. I've seen improvement from this year to last but he's far from a finished product. He started off this season for some reason really struggling to throw out base runners. But then the Cubs catching co-ordinator (Tim Cousins? They didn't say who) came through on a trip visiting each level and Amaya's CS% skyrocketed. By all accounts, he has the quickness and athleticism (though I wouldn't say either of those are on the same level as Contreras) to be an above average receiver in time while perhaps posting above average to elite CS numbers.

Ha! Welp, for those worried about Bryant's lack of power this season, he can at least hit HRs off of AA pitching!

Swarmer with his 1st dominant game in AA tonight. 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K.

I like your list, but I think you have Trevor Clifton too high. His stats are pretty good this year and he's at AAA now. He used to have a plus curveball and I wonder if it's back. I'm trying to get more information on Jhonny Pereda and how his tools rate. Definitely a good sleeper prospect. Thanks. There's plenty of room for interpretation. I can understand anyone disagreeing with any ranking after the top 4 or 5. That's the state of the Cubs system right now. But this is exactly where they should be after an unprecedented run producing young stars/regulars like Bryant, Baez, Hendricks, Schwarber, Contreras, Almora, Happ, Torres, Jimenez, Edwards, etc. I like the youth and pitching depth currently in the system. There's a solid group of high ceiling prospects all under 20 (Amaya, Ademan, Marquez, Roederer, Davis, Albertos, Velazquez, Gallardo, Lopez, C. Morel, Kelli, Soto, Diaz, Estrada, etc.) and more pitchers with a chance than the Cubs have had in a long time (Alzolay, Lange, Clifton, Miller, Abbott, Little, Albertos, Steele, Clark, Richan, Maples, Mekkes, Norwood, the Professor and Mary Ann, etc.). We should know a lot more in a year or two, and that's about the time table the Cubs should be on.

To go 20 deep in this org right now is tough because after the first 5 or so it's anybody's guess really, but I'll give it a go. (No Caratini, Bote, Maples or Zagunis.) 1. Adbert Alzolay 2. Miguel Amaya 3. Aramis Ademan 4. Alex Lange 5. Nico Hoerner 6. Brailyn Marquez 7. Trevor Clifton 8. Tyson Miller 9. Cory Abbott 10. Brendon Little 11. Cole Roederer 12. Brennan Davis 13. Jose Albertos 14. Justin Steele 15. Nelson Velazquez 16. Richard Gallardo 17. Jose Lopez 18. Zack Short 19. Bailey Clark 20. Jhonny Pereda Honorable mention: Paul Richan, Ian Rice, James Norwood, DJ Wilson, Tyler Thomas and Rollie Lacy.

Watched the Little game last night. What was most improved was his location. Was spotting the FB on the outside corner to lefties quite well. He left it up a bit too but it didn't hurt him. The Lugnuts announcers said his FB had late life. It was difficult to see much movement from their CF camera angle. The curve was consistently controlled and plus. The change up was the best it's been yet in this game. It didn't wow you, but it was effective which is an improvement. It had some tailing action and was thrown for strikes. FB was 92-93 in the first couple of innings, 88-91 after that. Curve was consistently 80. Didn't get a velo reading on the change.

Two more announced signings per AZ Phil:

It's nice to see these guys back. Corey has had an especiallly difficult/unlucky time of it. Is the turnaround time for TJS getting shorter? Steele was injured August 1st of last year. The operation probably didn't happen for a week or two after that and he was back pitching in games (albeit rehab games in Mesa) within a little over 10 months. Is that schedule common place now?

Ha! Eugene scores 4 in the bottom of the 9th for a walk off win in a very unique fashion. A Nico Hoerner walk, a Sierra single, a sac fly, two ground rule doubles and a Hillsboro Hops manager ejection later and score was tied 3-3. Fernando Kelli came in to pitch run for the guy on 2nd. A new pitcher was brought in to face Jonathan Soto who never put his bat on the ball. Wild pitch, Kelli to 3rd. Wild pitch, Kelli scores. Game over.

Yeah, after essentially skipping levels twice in his short career, it's all about the 2nd half for Ademan.

Then he needs to learn how to nibble more. (That’s not something I thought I would ever type). A HR given up and a couple more solid base hits allowed. Yeah, none of the hits were cheapies. The HR didnt look like it would carry off the bat but it did. There is such a thing as getting too much of the plate, but from the Eugene broadcast, it didn't look like he was grooving any pitches. Maybe he just got unlucky that inning and they hit some good pitches.

Richan's FB 93, 94, 94. Curve: 78. Good control always around the plate, hitting his target.

Marquez hitting 96 again.

I know Tyler Thomas' scouting reports haven't wowed to date, but he's been putting up the numbers lately. In his last 5 starts: 26.1 IP, 15 H, 3 BB, 35 K, 2.05 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, .163 BAA. He's still a prove-it-at-every-level type prospect, but consider Low-A checked off the list.

Finishes with 6 scoreless, 2 hits, 1 walk, 4 Ks.

Nice to see a good outing from Lange. 5.1 scoreless with just 1 hit and 1 walk thus far.

I asked Arizona Phil in the comments but he wasn’t sure. I'd rather have Serrano, tbh. I know the full amount doesn't count towards the ISBA space, but I wonder if the team Serrano was purchased from in Mexico would have to give back the $900,000 to the Cubs if the contract was voided.

For the moment, yes.

Tyson Miller's last 5 starts: 29.1 IP, 23 H, 4 BB, 30 K, 2.45 ERA, .213 BAA, 0.92 WHIP. Latest reports had him 92-94. Prototypical size (6'5", 200 lbs.), decent draft pedigree (4th round) and age appropriate for his level (22 in HIgh-A). He's becoming interesting...