CubsWin

Thank you, Bruce Miles. I feel the exact same way. Nothing has changed. This is no time and there is no reason to panic. Lets just get behind Ronny now. No one is panicing. Some, including myself, are just saying that we're in a bad position in regards to our starting SS. I understand and agree that it looks like the Cubs are not in a very good position at SS at the moment. But I'd have to disagree that no one is panicking or blowing things out of proportion. And thats just from the first 4 pages. Now most if not all of the above posters also made very rational comments as well. And I don't think any of those posters are bad Cub fans or are ridiculously pessimistic. But I do think that the statements above are reactionary, overblown and panicky.

Are you referring to this off season?

Even Todd Hollandsworth got 5 weeks, and he had no business being a starter in the first place. Hollandsworth officially started from April 4th to May 9th, thats technically 4 1/2 weeks, so we are both right. How about that for diplomacy? :wink: Since we are splitting hairs now, during those 4 1/2 weeks, he started 25 out of 32 games. He was hot from the beginning going .333/.440/.524 in the first 6 games. So maybe Dusty made the right choice after all. But then Todd went 0-4 in back-to-back games, and Dusty didn't hesitate to go to the unproven rookie for consecutive starts. When Hollandsworth returned he showed signs of life through the end of April. But once May rolled around he was dreadful. And after only 5 starts in May, Baker sat him for an extended period to give the Dubois a look. Do the above decisions seem unrational to you? According to Matt Murton, Baker eased him into the line-up and it helped him succeed. Couldn't Dusty have been trying to ease Dubois in as well? It seems to me that Dusty treated Hollandsworth with a fairly short leash which would make sense given Todd's career norms. What is so bad about how Baker handled that situation? Whatever, "a good solid 4 weeks" or 4 1/2 weeks, all I'm saying is Cedeno should be given his shot.

Thank you, Bruce Miles. I feel the exact same way. Nothing has changed. This is no time and there is no reason to panic. Lets just get behind Ronny now.

So Baker is supposed to let Cedeno play and play regardless of his performance? I agree that Cedeno should be given a good solid 4 weeks to get going. Clearly, Cedeno has the higher upside and from all appearances he is being given a chance to reach it. But, if after a month, Ronny is performing below Perez's career averages, then the prudent move for a manager to make, at least one who wants to win games and win them now, would be to sit Cedeno for a while, maybe even send him to AAA and let him work some things out. How would that not be the smart move?

Anybody know what Sisco's signing bonus was? Oops, didn't see this one. Andy received $1 million when he was drafted one round after Mark Prior in 2001. Yeah, that's what I thought. That flies in the face of the above quoted statement then. If all the Cubs care about is how much money they have in you, then why would they cut loose Sisco after giving him a million dollar signing bonus. It sounds to me more like what jaxxradio was saying that the Cubs were standing on principle with this one and sending a message that talent alone isn't enough to get you promoted in this business. Attitude, work ethic and physical conditioning also factor into the equation.

Thanks, CR. I didn't know Petrick was still recovering. Do you know when he is likely to be ready? Also, if Billek and Holliman will start in Daytona, who of Mateo, Mathes, Johnson and Weber will stay in Peoria? It is possible that Gallagher could start the season in AA, in which case Daytona's rotation would look like Johnson Holliman Billek Mateo Mathes/Weber with Peoria getting Pawelek Veal Downs Mathes/Weber Yepez? Estrada? Last summer, I heard the Cubs were hoping Petrick would be back by midseason this year. I don't know how he's doing in regards to that, though. Gallagher or Mathes are the most likely to get promoted to West Tenn, especially with an opening seemingly created with Sean Marshall making the big league squad. Heck, why not send Mateo to AA? He has had the most success at the High A level of those mentioned. As I counted, even with someone of those three going to WT, that still would leave one of Johnson and Weber staying at Peoria unless Daytona goes with a 6-man rotation. Any thoughts?

Anybody know what Sisco's signing bonus was?

Thanks, CR. I didn't know Petrick was still recovering. Do you know when he is likely to be ready? Also, if Billek and Holliman will start in Daytona, who of Mateo, Mathes, Johnson and Weber will stay in Peoria? It is possible that Gallagher could start the season in AA, in which case Daytona's rotation would look like Johnson Holliman Billek Mateo Mathes/Weber with Peoria getting Pawelek Veal Downs Mathes/Weber Yepez? Estrada?

Well, until then, we might as well have fun speculating. AAA- Soto C Reyes C Sing 1B Lewis 2B Fontenot 2B Ojeda SS McGehee 3B/C Craig 3B Hoffpauir IF Coats OF/IF Pie OF Restovich OF Greenburg OF Guzman Hill Brownlie Ryu Valdez Aardsma Pignatiello Haines (Is he still a Cub?) Baez Nolen Novoa or Koronka etc. AA- Fox C Ritchie C Dopirak 1B Patterson 2B Rojas SS Moore 3B Sisk IF Spearman IF Weston OF Montanez OF Walker OF Collins OF/1B Marmol Marshall (If he doesn't go north) Connolley Wells Blasko?/Cherry? Shipman Perez Holdzkom etc. High A- Garcia 1B Spears 2B Chirinos SS Cruz IF Ciaramella OF Harvey OF Culpepper OF Fuld OF Petrick Gallagher Mateo Mathes Johnson Weber Phelps Crews Layden Burrows Low A- Reed C Flowers OF Veal Billek Holliman Pawelek Downs Whew! That's harder than it looks. Additions and changes to come, I'm getting sleepy.

But...I thought Walt Jocketty was a genius and Hendry was an idiot. I guess maybe there are only so many great hitters in baseball and not every position can be filled with one. Hunh? Go figure. :wink: BTW, thanks CardsFan, for the info. Cool post.

It's been reported a couple of times now that the Cubs expect to take 11 pitchers north due to the lack of needing a 5th starter until tax day, so I doubt they will be taking 12. Theriot might not be as redundant as it seems. Of the four middle infielders you mentioned, none of them can play 3B as well as Theriot can. His defense at third is likely better than Mabry's as well. He may have supplanted John as the first choice to back-up third. Mabry's primary roll would be as a left-handed pinch-hitter and back-up OFer with Walker likely being the first choice to back up Lee at 1B given the depth at 2B currently on the roster. Williamson returned from a back strain to pitch a 1/3 of inning the other day. It is still uncertain how healthy, but for the moment, lets assume he is ready. Wuertz made some mechanical changes and performed well getting the save the other day with a perfect 9th, so he is likely back in the the bullpen picture. With the consensus being that Novoa will likely not be ready to break with the big club, that leaves Koronka very much in the mix. I think it comes down to Williams's performance tomorrow. If he pitches well enough to convince the Cubs brass to leave him in the rotation as the 4th starter, then Marshall will likely start the season in AA and Koronka will be the 3rd lefty in the pen. I know Koronka's numbers from last season weren't all that impressive, but that was as a starter. Wuertz's numbers weren't all that great until he was moved to the pen. He gained some zip on his fastball and with his already harsh slider, he became an effective reliever in a very short time. The Cubs sent Koronka to the Arizona Fall League last season as a reliever and he dominated. In 10 appearances (all relief), he pitched 13 innings, faced 50 batters, allowed 8 hits, no runs, striking out 11 and walking 5. Batters hit .178 against him. He finished 7 games and earned 3 saves with none blown obviously. He has looked pretty good so far this spring (3.75 ERA). He may be this year's Wuertz.

I think Cubs management would answer that by saying the Marshall's control was much more consistent than Hill's and that was the determining factor.

I think Novoa goes down simply because he doesn't have the arm strenght right now. I'm guessing that they are waiting to see how williams does if he struggles, then Marshall will start and Williams to the pen. If not Marshall will go down and be looked at as a 5th starter candidate when needed. That's exactly how I see it, too, Brian. The start tomorrow will say a lot about how Williams is throwing at the moment. The Cubs are pretty confident that Marshall is throwing pretty well, so if Williams is shaky tomorrow, then Marshall will start the season as the 4th starter and Williams will be the long man out of the pen. If Williams gets an opportunity to work in that role and does well, then he will likely return to the rotation when a 5th starter is needed on April 15th leaving Hill and Guzman in AAA regardless of how they are doing. I love this situation. As someone said earlier, the PCL is primarily a hitter's league, so if a pitcher is putting up good numbers, it is moderately impressive, at the least, its a good sign. So having Guzman and Hill toiling in Iowa will give the Cubs a good idea what kind of depth they have. So if Marshall or Williams is struggling and Guz and Hill are doing well, no worries. We got a guy who can come up and has a decent shot of pitching well. But what really gets me excited is that we haven't even mentioned the names Mark Prior, Kerry Wood or Wade Miller yet. 8)

Agreed. We tend to judge GMs each individual off-season. But Hendry should lose mega-points for putting himself in this position. And committing himself to Jones for three years will compound this mistake. And yet, I think the Cubs will win the division. Ain't baseball grand? I'm not sure what you are saying lefty. Are you saying that Hendry has had two off seasons and one full season to replace Sosa with someone better than Burnitz/Jones and hasn't done it? If so, I agree. The proof is in the pudding, obviously. But that right there isn't saying much unless it can be shown that he could have acquired someone clearly better for the right price but chose not to because he thought Burnitz/Jones would be better. Also, how did Hendry "put himself in this position"? I'm just trying to understand what point you are making.

I wanted a platoon of Mark Sweeney and Eli Marrero. I respect UK for coming out with a possible different path that Hendry could have taken in RF. It will be fun tracking the production of Sweeney and Marrero this season and comparing it to that of the Cubs RFers.

With a 4 man rotation to start the season, expect 7 out of the BP. It looks like it's down to Koronka &Novoa, unless both Hill & Marshall are put into the rotation & they go with Williams out of the pen, which I doubt. We'll see how he does in AAA this season, but during this spring Aardsma has looked pretty good. I wouldn't be surprised if his name was in the mix come July when the Cubs may trade someone like Williamson.

With Wellemeyer gone and Novoa back from his illness, the bullpen situation has changed dramatically in the last 24 hours. It was uncertain how long it would take Novoa to return from what was reported to be Valley Fever. It was also uncertain how long Williamson was going to be out with a strained back. Both pitched in today's spring training game although sparingly, Williamson only a third of an inning and Novoa two thirds. Adding another wrinkle was the successful 9th inning Wuertz pitched. He didn't allow a hit or a walk and struck out one and the solid play of Koronka out of the pen. With four games left on the spring schedule, the back end of the pen is still up for grabs. Even Ryu's name is being mentioned as a long reliever. That gives the Cubs 5 names for 3 spots. I guess Ryu or Koronka look to be first in line to take a spot if: 1. Wuertz can't continue the turn around 2. Williamson's back flares up 3. Novoa missed too much time and won't be ready to break camp with the team. Personally, I would take Koronka over Ryu if any of those 3 contingencies comes to pass. When was the last time the Cubs had 3 lefties in the pen?

And, of course, one thing to keep in mind with his age and the fact that he hasn't pitched over high-A, is that he missed a season and a half recovering from Tommy John surgery. Whereas the injury history is a minus, it is important to remember that while he may have just turned 24, (his birthday is March 23rd) he would likely have been in AAA this season if it weren't for the injury. As it stands, he may still pitch in AAA at some point this season depending on how he does. He will likely start at Daytona or West Tenn, but who knows where he will end up the year. I'm guessing his control will dictate how high he climbs. In that sense, the Cubs may have traded Wellemeyer for a 3-year younger version of himself.

The phrase "no doubt about it" is deeply ingrained in Cubs history. How many of you remember the song that would play before every Cubs game on WGN radio several years ago that started: "Hey, hey, holy mackeral, no doubt about it. The Cubs are on their way." I think the fact that Murton can't stop saying means that he is a true Cub at heart. :wink:

I couldn't agree more, O_O. OBP is important but certainly not the be-all, end-all. My feeling on toolsy vs. performance is that toolsy often has the higher ceiling. Not always, but more often than the other way around. For instance, Vlad Guerrero was probably not scouted because he performed well. His first season's OBP was pretty good (.366 in rookie ball in '94) but after that it got better and better. He is an exceptional example of how toolsy can become performance and explode. Vlads are few and far between. How often does toolsy pay off like that? And what are the percentages of toolsy guys who even become decent contributors? Tampa Bay seems to be crawling with these types of guys. Crawford, Gathright, Young, Upton. Great tools, but can they put it all together at the big league level and if they do, will their production surpass a guy who might not have all the athleticism and tools, but has performed on a consistent basis and likely played college ball? I believe the stats and history shows that when they successfully put it all together that they are far superior to the performance guy. So the question remains, what are the percentages of toolsy guys who make it big vs. the performance guys who solidly, if unspectacularly, contribute? I think any GM will scout for both types, but should one be weighted over the other? Anyone?

I don't think so. I know I'm not. What I did say was that Hendry may value OBP less than some posters on this board would like him to. And then I presented evidence showing that Hendry has improved the OBP at every position except RF over the last three years. (Its kinda hard to find someone with a better OBP than Sosa had in '01 and '02.) I think that evidence shows that he clearly recognizes the need to improve the team's overall OBP, and that he is and has been taking steps to better it. How far he is willing to go to do so, however, is certainly debatable.

I agree. The odds on the Cards and the Cubs working out a deal for a rule 5 guy that can't stick must be astronomical. I doubt Mateo would have been the player that prevents the Cubs and Cards from working out a deal. Chances are...the Cards did NOT like what they saw from Mateo and we all too glad to return him to the Cubs. Not according to the Cardinals per mlb.com. Well, in that case, the Cubs have to make sure that no deal is worked out. :wink: Done. :lol:

I agree. The odds on the Cards and the Cubs working out a deal for a rule 5 guy that can't stick must be astronomical. I doubt Mateo would have been the player that prevents the Cubs and Cards from working out a deal. Chances are...the Cards did NOT like what they saw from Mateo and we all too glad to return him to the Cubs. Not according to the Cardinals per mlb.com.

I always thought Aardsma was able to hit 97-98? I could be wrong though. According to the commentary during the broadcast of Saturday's game in which Aardsma pitched, he used to be able to hit 97-98, but it was costing him control so he backed off. Didn't he also get injured about two years ago and that affected his mph a bit?