CubsWin

Castro has joined Colvin at the major league level. They both have been surprisingly steady producers. After Cashner's latest start, I'm willing to put him in the "likely" category. How long before he's called up? A year? A couple months? Likely SP Andrew Cashner Possible CF Brett Jackson 3B Josh Vitters SP Jay Jackson SS Hak-Ju Lee Got-A-Chance SP Chris Carpenter SP Casey Coleman 2B Ryan Flaherty 2B DJ LeMahieu RF Kyler Burke SP Ken McNutt RP Larry Suarez (Quietly living up to his early hype this season) Worth Tracking C Robinson Chirinos (Turns 26 in a few weeks but is tearing up AA) SP Ryan Searle RP John Mincone OF Dong-Yub Kim OF Kyung-Min Na SP Brooks Raley SP Dae-Eun Rhee SS Wes Darvill 2B Logan Watkins SP Alberto Cabrera SP Chris Archer SP Rafael Dolis RP Aaron Shafer IF Matt Cerda SP Jeffry Antigua SP Su-Ming Jung SP Austin Kirk SP Chris Rusin OF Jesus Morelli SS Junior Lake

Cashner threw 95 pitches over 7 innings on Saturday giving up just two hits, no runs, no walks while striking out 7. He's now pitched 19 innings at AAA, giving up just 2 runs, both earned. Opponents are hitting .197 against him. In those 19 IP, he's allowed 13 hits and 2 walks against 14 Ks. At Iowa, he's 3-0 with a 0.95 ERA. Adding in his time at AA, he's 6-1 on the year with a 2.13 ERA over 9 starts (1 CG). He's struckout 56 in 55 IP allowing just 35 hits and 15 walks. Is that good enough to be considered a starter yet? I'm asking, not implying.

Rereading the 2008 draft thread, there were lots of unhappy people. In fact, it's a very amusing read now, considering that's turned out to be a pretty great draft so far. I was re-reading that thread, too. It's hilarious. Cubs fans don't have knee jerk negative reactions at all. No, never, never. Cubs fans never overhype prospects based on short-term minor league success either. Not during my lifetime. Not once. Ever.

Rereading the 2008 draft thread, there were lots of unhappy people. In fact, it's a very amusing read now, considering that's turned out to be a pretty great draft so far. I was re-reading that thread, too. It's hilarious. Cubs fans don't have knee jerk negative reactions at all. No, never, never.

Ever since he was drafted, the question about whether Andrew Cashner was a starter or reliever has been debated. Is that debate now finally over? He may still be used/broken in as a reliever, but has Cashner proven that he is capable of being a starter? Is anyone still mad at Hendry and Wilken for drafting a reliever in the 1st round?

So long as those first pitches were good ones to hit that's not a bad strategy. The whole reason to establish that you won't swing at a bad pitch and that you're willing to wait and work the count is to get pitchers to come over the plate. If they give you a good pitch to hit on that first one, you'd better swing at it because you may not see it again. IIRC, in his second AB, Starlin swung at the first pitch and he lined hard to CF. The CFer had to make a diving/sliding catch to get him.

Oops. A HR, a triple, 6 RBI, plenty of deep counts, and a SLG% of 1.400 after the first game. I'm going to take a wait and see approach...

The best way to fix a bad pen besides sending down Samardzija...is to not really have to use it True, but how much longer can we expect the starting pitching to be this good? Someone, likely more than one of them, is going to struggle given their past performance. We can expect Gorzelanny and Silva to keep going as they have. Zambrano may figure it out and be able to return to the rotation. He may not. It's great that it's buying the Cubs time to figure out the pen, but at some point, unless two or more guys like Berg, Russell, Gray, Caridad or minor leaguers like Gaub and Stevens prove themselves, Hendry is very likely going to have to make a deal. I agree completely that Levine made a fool of himself with his comments about Vitters. The Cubs should be able to pick their spot on a trade and get a good veteran reliever without having to give up someone of Vitters ceiling.

It would be 72 RS 62 RA if you also removed our best game (today). Still pretty good, of course, just evening it out. True, and if we going to remove anomalies, we could take out some of the bullpen implosions that likely will not be happening so often as the season progresses. And the picture improves a bit more. I never bought into the season is a disaster view either. My reaction was that Lou, the rest of the coaching staff and Hendry had a lot of work to do. Hendry has yet to make any moves, but Lou's been rather pro-active and Rudy seems to be impacting some of the hitters. There's hope to be had on the northside still.

I've been thinking a lot about this lately. First, it's too early to tell anything for sure. In fact, I've always been a believer in letting the season play out. For all of it's stats, Baseball remains a fairly unpredictable game. The '08 Rays, the '07 Rockies, the '05 White Sox, the '02 Angels and the '01 Diamondbacks all come to mind. It gets especially unpredictable when it comes to individual players who are at the beginnings of their careers. Look how often we've been surprised and disappointed by younger players. The list is long on the disappointment side. We all have memorized the names. But that's a part of the development game and what matters is are there any players that did come through? Did anyone expect Soto to win Rookie of the Year? He had a breakthrough year in AAA in '07. The smart money (and all the evidence) said it was a fluke. His only public comments on what changed was that he started swinging harder. Then it carries over into '08 and he seems legit. Maybe he got overconfident in '09, thought the game was easier than it was, stopped putting in the work, lost his focus and gained weight. I don't know, but the early results from this year tell us that '09 was the fluke, not his rookie campaign. These are human beings. Guys have breakthroughs. I'm always trying to find the reasons for shifts in performance. Silva was absolutely horrible in Seattle and after his first spring start with the Cubs, it looked like more of the same. Then there was an article about a side session he had with Larry Rothschild and Greg Maddux. He said they changed his stride toward the plate. He said he felt a big difference in that side session and got excited to pitch again, a feeling he hadn't had since being with the Twins. I was like, "okay...prove it." He has. Since that side session, he pitched 19.2 innings giving up 11 hits and 2 earned runs, 1 HR, striking out 9 while walking 2 the rest of the spring for a 0.92 ERA and a 0.66 WHIP. So far, that has carried over into the season where his numbers are almost identical (19 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 1 HR, 12 K, 2 BB, 0.95 ERA and a 0.63 WHIP). Confidence has a huge impact on performance. Maybe the adjustment in his stride helped him keep the ball down or get better movement on his breaking ball, I don't know. But he's certainly way more confident since then. He seems like a guy who is not the strongest mentally. In a later article, he spoke about how having his mom with him in the states was helping him. Okay, whatever works, Carlos. If he gets rocked in an upcoming start, how he responds will tell us a lot about his mental toughness and his ability to be useful for the rest of the season. Colvin's breakthrough, if indeed it is one, came in the second half of last season long before Jaramillo joined the Cubs. Tyler also was returning from fairly major surgery, so being completely healthy may have also played a part in his apparent breakthrough. So it seems unlikely that Rudy has anything to do with his current performance. Uber-prospects like Jason Heyward who are putting up great numbers at 18 and 19 in the minors are the standard that everyone gets compared to. Colvin is not that. Soto wasn't that either. Neither was Theriot. But just because guys get it later than others doesn't mean that their ceiling is that of a reserve. Did anyone expect Theriot to be able to do what he has done over the last 3 1/2 seasons given his performance at the lower levels in the minors? I know I didn't. He was thought to be, at best, a decent utility infielder. He's exceeded that. So whereas the evidence from his early minor league career shows that Colvin is likely destined to be a 4th OFer, I'm open to the possibility that he could be more. Reports from around the league, not just Cubdom, hail Jaramillo's ability as a master hitting coach. The early returns from Soriano, a former student of his in Texas, are encouraging, but we all know that Sori can get hot. Right now, he's striking out once every five at bats. That's an improvement over last year when he struck out once every four. It's early, we'll see if that continues. At least he's hitting and contributing at a decent clip. A lot of posters on this board thought Randy Wells would regress this season, myself included. I thought he was likely to have an ERA between 3.5 and 4, but others thought he would regress way beyond that. So far, he looks exactly like he did last season. Awesome, the Cubs need him to do that. There was a reason why the Blue Jays selected him in the rule 5 draft. They saw something in him. The Cubs were fortunate to get him back. But, again, it's a long season. With the return of Lilly, Zambrano moving to the pen, Marmol pitching very well and the bats coming around, the Cubs have a shot at making the post season. With some trades, players like Lee and Ramirez getting hot and balancing out the likely regression from others who are hot right now, I don't see why this team can't overcome the 3rd place predictions a lot of experts saddled them with. As always, we'll have to wait and see.

If he were called up, would he do well? Probably. But that doesn't mean he has nothing left to learn. Plate discipline, pitch recognition, drawing walks, situational hitting, continuing to refine his fielding and throwing accuracy are likely all on the list of things needing improvement.

Man. I was all excited about Cashner/Jackson day and the Castro streak. The Cubs and Hawks saved the day. Doubleheaders tomorrow I guess.

Yeah, somehow I doubt Jake Opitz is a better defensive SS than Starlin Castro. Hopefully, it was done as a sign of mercy to the other team. I hope Lee's okay...

Both SSs Lee and Castro were removed from their games today. Awaiting word as to why... Oh, and Beliveau needs to be promoted. He already had 96.2 IP at Peoria last season and did well. He's 23 and including tonight's game, he's pitched 9.1 innings, allowed 5 hits, 2 earned, 5 walks and struckout 20. I think that's good enough, don't you?

Josh Vitters's last 10 games: .333/.400/.611 in 36 ABs with 4 doubles, 2 HRs, 7 RBI, 4 walks against 6 Ks. Oh, and he's 2-for-2 in stolen base attempts. Brett Jackson's last 10 games: .368/.467/.526 in 38 ABs with 2 doubles, 2 triples, with 7 walks against 5 strikeouts. Kyler Burke's last 10 ga-- no...better not. Instead-- Starlin Castro's last 10 games: .386/.404/.614 in 44 ABs with 5 doubles, 1 triple and 1 HR and 9 RBI. He has a 9 game hitting streak going in which every game has been a multi-hit game but one and he's hitting .436. He also has a 6 game multi-hit hitting streak in which he's hitting .500. Meh, I need to see more...

After doing some research, there is no hard and fast cutoff for Super 2's as far as service time. Here's the breakdown: To qualify, a player must: have at least 2 years of service, but less than 3, and; have accumulated at least 86 days of service in the previous year, and; rank in the top 17% of all 2-year players in service time. The cutoff point generally falls between 2 years, 128 days of service and 2 years, 140 days. So to be safe, if you are looking to avoid your playing becoming eligible for Super 2 arbitration, he shouldn't be called up until very late May or June 1st.

I'm sensing a Vitters explosion coming... And on Castro, when's the super 2 deadline? This is getting ridiculous.

That's no earned runs for Jung so far, 5 unearned, but for a 20 year old, first time in the Midwest league, he's doing just fine. Valdez definitely has the speed. What he lacks, almost completely, is power. He's 22 and a little old for his level. He needs to start showing it pretty soon. He's 6'1". His frame should be able to add more muscle. Maybe they should get him on Colvin's program...

Starting to come around a bit? :-) Look, I agree that there is something to being more confident because you are facing a weak offense, but it doesn't impact a pitcher this much. Was Silva simply scared of every hitter he faced while in Seattle? No, he had a side session the first week in March with Larry and Greg and they found something in his stride. He corrected it and he's been improved ever since. I don't know how much longer he can do this, but I'll take it while I can get it.

True, but that has nothing to do with how he was looking. He kept the ball low and was making it move late. He didn't walk anybody. He pitched well. And I thought he'd be keeping the end of the bench warm down in the bullpen. so what? he was playing a minor league team. So what? His stuff looked good. You can continue to ignore my point if you want. It doesn't make it any less valid. what was your point? he's good enough to pitch in AA? super. My point is he could've been throwing a side session to imaginary batters but the fact still remains, Silva executed his pitches effectively. I don't know what's so hard to understand about that. Maybe you didn't watch the game, but he was getting a lot of his pitches low and over the plate with movement. He threw 91 pitches, 65 of them were strikes. He was hitting his spots with a 91-92 mph fastball with consistency. He didn't walk anybody. Very little of that has to do with the caliber of the hitters he was facing. It has to do with the pitcher's ability to execute his pitches. He looked good. I don't think it means that much. It's just two games, but that's two more well pitched games than I thought he would have when the Cubs acquired him.

I'm not sure because it seems like the differences in categories are a bit subjective and probably based on semantics. :) It's totally subjective and completely because of semantics. I knew what I meant. What's your problem, can't you read my mind? Basically, this is our current evaluation on a player's chances of being, at the very least, a good, starting major leaguer. They could wind up being more than that, but what I am looking at is what are their chances of being an average to above average starting position player or starting pitcher in the bigs. (I guess I'll accept closer as a key contributing position, but bench players and the rest of the bullpen aren't what I'm talking about with this list.) Obviously, in order to determine someone's likelihood of becoming a good, starting major leaguer, we're looking at their perceived ceilings and what they've shown us about their ability to reach them. But I think we were on the same page with that.

You could easily be right. I'm mostly basing their worthiness of being followed on where they were drafted.

Carpenter. Of course. Where would you rank him?

Anyone got a list of who's rehabbing at extended spring? Austin Kirk is one, right?

Lucky dog. I want a full report.