CubsWin

I would take him, too. But at what cost? He's about to get a lot more expensive.

He'd be really interesting. Yeah, I was thinking about him as well. Is the A's stadium not a hitter's park? I know the Rockies stadium obviously is which puts Francis's numbers into perspective, but why not Duchscherer? Is his injury worse? Still lingering? What am I missing?

Semi-annual? I thought it was simply ongoing. But, yes, back to Garza, I haven't read anything on this for weeks. Not to say that it's dead, just that there isn't much to talk about outside of saying the only way I would do it is if they didn't get any of our top prospects. Top prospects include Archer, McNutt, B. Jackson, Lee, Lake, Vitters, Golden or Simpson. That would leave a best possible package of Brandon Guyer, Jay Jackson and Chris Carpenter (or younger guys like Ben Wells or Austin Reed). I guess I don't want him that badly.

Yep, that's how I see him, too.

It's only a cycle if your GM is not competent enough to keep you competitive every season when you have crazy resources like the Cubs have been able to enjoy during the back end of this decade. It's only a cycle when your GM signs players to contracts that are way too long and drag down the payroll for years to come while getting poor production from that position and others due to those bad contracts. There is no reason why the Cubs can't be the favorite in the NL Central every year. I know that's a lot to imagine as a Cub fan, but we've accepted mediocrity for so long, it's hard to think differently. However, payroll has grown every year until this year and the results have not been anywhere in tune with the increase. It takes a top GM and a little luck. The Cubs have had neither lately. Here's hoping the next GM hire will be one of the best in the business.

So what? At bats are needed for development. Nobody cares that Castro had less than 1000 AB because when he was called up he played everyday. Colvin got a nice amount of minor league AB, and when he was called up he got fairly consistent playing time and at bats. With 4 OF already crammed into a crowded rotation it is going to be next to impossible for Guyer to get ample playing time. He could use the playing time to continue his development. The AB is absolutely germane to the discussion. Okay. So your concern is that Guyer won't get enough playing time if he's called up. I totally get that. There most certainly is a benefit to being on the bench and in the clubhouse and seeing how it is done on the major league level. But I agree, if he doesn't get a decent amount of playing time, he should be in AAA. I guess a lot of that depends on how he performs relative to the other OFers. At least under Piniella, performance dictated playing time for the most part. I'm not sure how Quade will do it. You seem to be making the assumption that because Colvin and Fukudome are on the roster, Guyer will be buried. I say that all depends on how they perform. Was Colvin's production last season so good that he has earned his playing time regardless of how he is doing? I don't think he's that established in the league, do you? But the number of AB or IP that a player has at the minor league level clearly says little about whether he is ready for the big leagues. How many innings pitched did Prior have before he was called up? 51. Was he ready or did they rush him? Come on, Goony. Some players take longer to develop or are less advanced or less gifted than others. Are you seriously debating this point?

Yeah, that's what I'm seeing as well. Jackson needs more time and I think he will get it, likely at AAA. Guyer would have to have a strong spring, but if he does, he would likely be that bat that goony was referring to. I could easily see him starting at AAA as well, though. Colvin got the gig because he was ridiculous in spring, and he was the 4th OF. Nady was there but still rehabbing on the fly, so they could more or less guarantee Colvin plenty of playing time. He PH in game 1 and started games 3 and 4. He had 45 AB in April. With the same 4 OF still on the team, it's going to be extremely difficult to get a guy like Guyer into the rotation with regularity. If he was out of options or something maybe they'd try and make it work. But he's a guy with 400+ fewer minor league AB than Colvin had, with 1300. I don't see how they could try it. I agree that there isn't a lot of room for him. I think the thing about minor league at bats is not germane to the discussion. Who cares how many at bats some has had. Colvin never put up numbers like Guyer has the last two seasons (and so far in the VWL). So he probably got more at bats because his development called for them. Castro didn't have a lot of minor league at bats either. So what? I'm saying that with the way the roster stands right now, if Guyer has a strong spring, he could be that bat that you were referring to. With a back-up catcher, hopefully Chirinos, Colvin/Fukudome, Baker and Barney, they've got almost all their bases covered. Like you said, that 5th player could just be a bat. The Cubs had no better minor league bat last year than Guyer. If they go out and trade for Chris Davis or sign Thome or something, the Guyer likely starts at AAA. If they don't and Guyer rakes during ST, who else is going to fill that spot? Who would be a better choice?

Yeah, that's what I'm seeing as well. Jackson needs more time and I think he will get it, likely at AAA. Guyer would have to have a strong spring, but if he does, he would likely be that bat that goony was referring to. I could easily see him starting at AAA as well, though.

This is an exciting year for the Cubs minor league system, if not for the major league club. Last season, the Cubs called up several first-timers to the northside. Oddly, many of the ones who might stick had their last names start with the letter "C". Castro, Cashner, Coleman, Colvin and Castillo. They were joined by Darwin Barney and Jeff Russell as guys who are likely to contribute in the future. That's seven players making their debut in one season. What will this year bring? Brandon Guyer seems to have put it all together. He may not be an all-star caliber OFer at the major league level, but he's been performing like one at the lower levels ever since he regained his swing following an injury in May. Guyer put together an off-the-charts 2nd half, and it apparently has continued into his stint in Venezuelan Winter League. Following his .344/.398/.588 line with 30 SB in 33 attempts in AA this season, Brandon is hitting .348/.444/.435 in 69 ABs to lead the Aragua Tigers in hitting. He also has 4 SB without getting caught yet. Guyer joined the Cubs organization in '07. He started to figure things out two years later when he hit .347/.407/.453 in 265 ABs in Daytona in '09. There's an open OF spot on the Cubs bench and with a strong spring, Guyer could break camp with the Cubs. Chris Carpenter has struggled with control problems as a starting pitcher throughout his rise in the Cubs system. But some of that wildness could be due to the fact that he has dealt with many stints on the DL. The Cubs moved him to the pen during the Arizona Fall League this year, and he impressed with an upper-90s fastball that hit 100 more than once. Kerry Wood will likely see some time on the DL himself this season, and when he does, Carpenter could be the man to fill his set up roll. He would have to be added to the 40-man roster to be called up, but the Cubs have a depth of AAAA pitchers on their 40-man and if Carpenter is throwing heat like he did this fall, it should be an easy decision. Chris Archer will likely start the year in Iowa, but if he continues putting the type of numbers he did last season (15-3, 2.34 ERA, 142.1 IP, 106 H, 149 K, more ground outs than flyouts with opponents hitting just .200 against him), he could be the first arm called up in case of injury or ineffectiveness in the rotation. The guy's slider has been described as unhittable when it's on, and it was on a lot last season. Archer is a power pitcher with a fastball in the mid-90s and he gave up just 6 HRs in 142.1 innings. You don't see that too often. Robinson Chirinos has been in the organization for 10 years. He started as a jack-of-all-trades infielder but struggled with the bat. In '08, he made the switch to catcher part-time and coincidentally, and rather magically, started hitting. He finished that season going .275/.394/441. In '09, he was almost exclusively a catcher and he hit .294/.396/.519. And last year at AA and AAA, he hit .326/.416/.583. He's twice been named the Cubs best defensive catching prospect by Baseball America. At 26 years old, he appears ready to be the back-up to Geovany Soto allowing Welington Castillo, who is almost 3 years his younger, to continue refining his play in AAA. Others who could get their first taste of the bigs this season are OFer Brett Jackson and pitchers Kyle Smit, Rafael Dolis and Alberto Cabrera. I think it's fair to say the Cubs system is producing. And with the wealth of talent 20 and under, newcomer Hayden Simpson, prospects like 21-year-olds Trey McNutt and Josh Vitters plus the 9th selection in this year's Amateur Draft, it's best days are likely still ahead.

The Cubs seem to have a lot of borderline pitching prospects that, since we don't really have room for them in the rotation, could turn out to be good bullpen arms. I don't really see Carpenter, Jackson, Rusin, Raley, etc. ever being regular SP for us but I can easily see getting a couple very good relievers out of the bunch. And I know this is really really premature, but I'm already excited for when Kurcz is ready to take over as our closer. He just toyed with those idiot batters he faced in Boise. I'm excited about Kurcz, but a lot of those idiot batters he faced won't get past A ball. Let's wait and see before setting him as the closer of the future. I wouldn't be surprised if one or two of those arms developed into solid rotation arms. Carpenter has the pitches - a bit of improvement on the command could make him a 3/4 type arm. Rusin/Raley are lefties with enough ability that I could see them crack the end of a rotation. Raley has a bit more upside as well. I agree with you on Kurcz. We have to wait and see. Carpenter's health issues and ability to stay on the mound have me see him as a reliever. I would love for him to be able to be in the rotation and think that it is still possible, just not likely in the long run. He does have the pitches, but he pitched exclusively from the pen during the AFL this year and looked great, consistently sitting in the upper 90s and hitting 100 more than once. If not Kurcz, then maybe Carpenter will be the closer of the future. And hopefully the shut down set up man of the present. :D

Lee best month was July in which he hit for more power going .345/.418/.437. But his June and August weren't bad. In June he went .294/.368/.318 and in August he was .283/.347/.345. So I think it would be more accurate to say he had a slow start adjusting to the MWL in April and May and then started to hit. Lee's floor is higher than Lake's, and Lake's ceiling is higher than Lee's. It is Lee's ability to reach his ceiling that, for me, sets him apart...even if it is just slightly apart.

Lake may have the highest ceiling of any Cub prospect at the moment, so if we are just ranking based on ceiling then, yes, Lake should be ahead of Lee. Lake had a breakthrough July, but returned to earth later in the 2nd half. He's still just 20 (he'll have just turned 21 when the season starts), so he still has time for the light to turn on and stay on, but Lee is already reaching his potential. He has performed better offensively at Low-A and Short Season than Lake did when he was there. Lee's superior speed and defensive ability have already been covered. It seems to me that Lee, while having a lower offensive ceiling than Lake, is more likely to reach his and for that reason (plus the speed and defense), he gets ranked higher. But certainly a good argument can be made for the reverse.

Assuming he's healthy, I would have interest in Duchscherer.

Has anyone heard anything about this Thome meeting other than this blog site? Anything on the radio? This site almost exclusively just reprints stories from other sites, but with this story they are the only site reporting this meeting with Cubs brass.

I'm right there with you. However, I just Googled "Jim Thome Cubs", and there was a very interesting article from the Sun-Times about the Cubs and Thome being an unlikely pairing. Of course, it was from 2002, but...

With starters like: C - Soto 1B - Pena 2B - DeWitt SS - Castro 3B - Ramirez LF - Soriano CF - Byrd RF - Fukudome/Colvin A rotation like: Zambrano Dempster Wells And two of Cashner, Coleman, Gorzelanny, Silva, Archer, Samardzija or Diamond. A bullpen like: Marmol Wood Marshall Grabow And a bunch of other possibilities. Do the Cubs even have an outside chance of winning the Central? Would they if they added Garza? What about Garza and another reliever like Darren O'Day? Any chance? Or should they just pack it in and build for 2012?

Seriously. Plus, why would anybody doubt the possibility of a Pena extension. They have no impact bats in their system, nobody who could even potentially fill the spot, let alone be a likely candidate. If they don't extend him they will just go out in the market and find the next Pena. He's not an impact bat at the moment, but Vitters still has the potential to be a very good bat and played some first in the AFL this year. And unless they are extended or traded, Fielder and Pujols will be free agents next year...

According to ESPN, the Cubs (and Nationals) are officially out of the Webb bidding. It is now down to the Rangers and, of course, that team that is in on just about every free agent these days, the "mystery" team.

The exciting thing about this list, besides the fact that they are all currently 20 or younger, is that all of them except for two put up solid to very good numbers last season. And the two that didn't were a highly-touted pac rim free agent pitcher who's 6'6" and a left-handed starter taken in the 4th round last year. In other words, there's reason to have hope that they might still pan out.

Fair enough. Let's put him after Su-Min Jung then.

That depends on where they spend New Year's Eve. :wink: Great list, thanks. Very true, Mr. Brussels...

The Cubs brought up 3 prospects last season that made key contributions in Cashner, Castro and Colvin. But that's not the youth movement we're talking about in this thread. The Cubs have several highly regarded prospects that are all 22 or 21 in Brett Jackson, Chris Archer, Trey McNutt, Hayden Simpson, Josh Vitters, D.J. LeMahieu among others. But we're not talking about that youth movement either. This thread is about the depth of prospects 20 and younger currently in the Cubs system. There are enough decent ones worth following that we can put together a top 20 of just prospects who can't yet legally drink this New Year's Eve. Here's mine. 1. Hak-Ju Lee 2. Junior Lake 3. Reggie Golden 4. Aaron Kurcz 5. Jae-Hoon Ha 6. Robinson Lopez 7. Jeffry Antigua 8. Su-Min Jung 9. Ben Wells 10. Austin Reed 11. Arismendy Alcantara 12. Matt Cerda 13. Pin-Chieh Chen 14. Austin Kirk 15. Cam Greathouse 16. Luis Liria 17. Hunter Ackerman 18. Ryan Hartman 19. Wes Darvill 20. Tzu-An Wang Those of you with more in depth scouting reports, feel free to rip apart my hastily-put-together top 20 list of best guesses.

I don't know how he's throwing (I don't think he's pitching in any Winter leagues this year), but he is a non-roster invitee to spring training. Link If Guzman can come back anywhere near 09 form, we might have one of the best bullpens in baseball. I'm not sure exactly how big that "if" is, but I don't think it's small. Love to be wrong, though... Its not like Woods a sure thing either. True. Sad, but true.

But at what price financially? If Archer, McNutt and Cashner (or one of their other prospects) can be 3 of the 5 starters for the Cubs the next several seasons, think of the money that will be available to sign someone like Pujols for example. But if we keep trading our young prospects for older more expensive ones, we never get that window. Yeah, because pitching prospects are sure things. J.K. Ryu, Angel Guzman, Bobby Brownlie all became superstars. Don't forget the guy with perfect mechanics - Mark Prior. I completely agree that prospects don't always pan out. That's why I said "if". That's the chance that you take. And to be sure there are chances you'd be taking by acquiring Grienke. He was awesome in '09 and league average last season. He's expensive and has a history of emotional instability. You didn't choose very good examples of prospects, however. Mark Prior did pan out. He just got injured. And Ryu, Guzman and Brownlie never put up the kind of numbers that Archer and McNutt did last season at the ages of 21 and 20 with both of them finishing the year in AA. So they don't really compare.

I don't know how he's throwing (I don't think he's pitching in any Winter leagues this year), but he is a non-roster invitee to spring training. Link If Guzman can come back anywhere near 09 form, we might have one of the best bullpens in baseball. I'm not sure exactly how big that "if" is, but I don't think it's small. Love to be wrong, though...