scarey

Well, then I guess I'll go with Morneau cause he's lucky then. In 940 career PA (just so you don't argue sample size), Morneau has had 2.5 PA per RBI with RISP. Dunn in 1322 PA has 3.4 PA per RBI with RISP. You call it luck, I call it Morneau putting more of an emphasis on putting the ball in play to try and score a runner. Either way, I still say that it's a reason why Morneau is a better hitter.

I agree with most of what you said in that post. It's not really about right or wrong, it's about ideals. However, that being said a baseball GM is in a position to make a better evaluation on a player based on the time and financial investment (it's their well-being after all) they put into it. I would count on the collective values of MLB GMs to make decisions that would lead to success. ...and from what I can tell, MLB GMs collectively do not think much of Adam Dunn. I'm sorry if people are offended by that, but that's just what I observe. There may be a secret Adam Dunn fan club that I'm not aware of, but from what I perceive, he is not valued among the professionals.

Thanks, that's all I'm looking for. I did show you some stats before, although they're not conventional. Every 2.3 times Morneau came to the plate with RISP (which he had 230 PAs with RISP), he was able to knock in a run. Dunn, in comparison, was only able to score a runner in every 2.8 plate appearances with RISP (out of 182). This is a big reason why I think Morneau had a better season then Dunn. So, RBI totals do not tell the whole story, I agree. Sometimes a player cannot help if his team gets into scoring position enough to help him to drive up RBI totals. However, when given a good opportunity to drive in a runner, Morneau was able to judge the situation and do what he had to do to get a runner in more often then Dunn. This takes the whole "RBIs is a team stat" argument and normalizes it to show what a specific player can do in the given situation. Now, given the fact that Dunn's number was 2.8, I'm actually fairly impressed. It's still not on par with what most of the run producers are capable of (many that I've researched are at 2.5 plate appearances per RBI), but Dunn performed well above his career mark in this stat which is 3.4. Does that mean he's evolving his game? Maybe, and if that's the case I can be more receptive to the idea of bringing him in. The other stat I was going to use was %of RBIs with runners in scoring position. Dunn drove in 65% of his runs from RISP while Morneau drove in 77% of his runs from RISP. However, I can see why this is a flawed stat because for one thing, Morneau can have his % driven up because of increased opportunities with RISP, while Dunn can drive his number down based on the higher HR total and scoring RBIs when runners are not in scoring position. Just think a little bit more about these things guys. OBP and SLG don't tell the whole story about how effective a player is. Hell, OPS+ either for that matter. In fact, no stat can tell you the whole story. But, collecting a greater variety of data can help more to understand how a player performs.

I guess I just take issue with the fact that you guys here seem to think that GMs, people who get paid millions of dollars for their expertise and have moved up through a system of professionals, are wrong and you're right. That they undervalue a guy like Adam Dunn and you have the correct value figured out. Did you ever stop to think that maybe it's not the GMs undervaluing Dunn, but you guys over valuing Dunn? Just stop and think about it as a possibility for a second. using the "gms know better because they are gms" argument is a copout. what about when sabean gave zito 126 million? what about 2/40 for andruw jones? 5/50 for gary matthews jr? 5/50 for juan pierre? 8/126 for soriano? do you agree with all those contracts? you have to, because you just said we can't question gms' intelligence Yes or no, you know better then an average baseball GM? Who said that we did? B/c they know more than me. Yes or no, have you agreed with every move the cubs have ever made? No. But I'm man enough to admit that I'm not in the position to say they were wrong... at least until hindsight.

I guess I just take issue with the fact that you guys here seem to think that GMs, people who get paid millions of dollars for their expertise and have moved up through a system of professionals, are wrong and you're right. That they undervalue a guy like Adam Dunn and you have the correct value figured out. Did you ever stop to think that maybe it's not the GMs undervaluing Dunn, but you guys over valuing Dunn? Just stop and think about it as a possibility for a second. using the "gms know better because they are gms" argument is a copout. what about when sabean gave zito 126 million? what about 2/40 for andruw jones? 5/50 for gary matthews jr? 5/50 for juan pierre? 8/126 for soriano? do you agree with all those contracts? you have to, because you just said we can't question gms' intelligence Yes or no, you know better then an average baseball GM?

I guess I just take issue with the fact that you guys here seem to think that GMs, people who get paid millions of dollars for their expertise and have moved up through a system of professionals, are wrong and you're right. That they undervalue a guy like Adam Dunn and you have the correct value figured out. Did you ever stop to think that maybe it's not the GMs undervaluing Dunn, but you guys over valuing Dunn? Just stop and think about it as a possibility for a second.

While we're on the subject, could you please tell me who you think was a better player in 2008? Adam Dunn or Justin Morneau? I'm not just talking about how important they were for their respective teams. I want to know in a vacuum, who played better last year, Dunn or Morneau? Dunn had 40 HRs, 100 RBI, 79 R and posted a .236/.386/.513 line Morneau had 23 HRs, 129 RBI, 97 R, and posted a .300/.374/.499 line Please, just tell me who was better and what your justification was? I would love to hear what any of you guys think here and really want to understand your side of it. I don't care that Morneau isn't in the Cubs plans, I simply want to know which you think was better offensively last year. Morneau, and I never said he wasn't. My point is that him being better has absolutely nothing to do with RBIs. Nothing. What makes him better? He's just a better hitter. Lots of stats show this. None of them are RBIs. You really need to stop with this RBI stuff. Show me one stat that shows he's a better hitter. I've actually already shown you one, and I can show you another if you want me to. I just want to know your argument on the topic besides "He's just a better hitter".

Morneau is an above avg. defender at 1B, which is an underrated defensive position, IMO. It's odd to try and use one of the best hitters in the AL to try and show how limited the value is of Dunn. I can't believe how bad of a hitter Morneau is.... Who's better him or Pujols? Please stop avoiding the question. I didn't ask you to compare the two for value. You guys are claiming that OBP and HRs are without a doubt under every circumstance the best possible stats to go by. I just showed you a guy, Morneau, that had a worse OBP and less HRs then Dunn. All I'm asking for is your judgment on who had a better offensive year. Is that a reason to be a wise guy about it? Who on earth claimed OBP and HRs are the best possible stats to go by? Do you know how OPS is calculated? HRs are only part of SLG. Ok, do you want to shift it over to slugging? The only reason I was bringing up HRs was because I made a statement earlier: And people were amused by the statement. So I was trying to make the argument that HRs doen't always make the best production... and Morneau proves that. Unless you've decided that Dunn had the better season, then we can continue with the "HRs =/= production" argument. If you concede the point, then I'll move on to slugging (which, btw, Dunn had a better slugging%... do you still think Morneau had the better offensive season?). Look guys, Dunn is a productive player. However, he gets a lot of his production from 1/2 run homers and fails again and again to get runners in when they're in scoring position. All I'm saying is, don't expect him to come through for you in a big situation unless you need a walk (which, I concede, there's many occasions where you need a walk). My main point here is OBP and SLG doesn't always trump everything. If it did, then people would be telling me that Dunn had the better season in 2008... which obviously people here have said otherwise.

Now you're just being silly :rotfl:

Don't even count defense, which had a better offensive year? And if you have any justification, could you please share. I didn't realize just how good of a year Morneau had last year. Without getting too deep into his stats, his OPS+ was higher still seems an odd way to prove a point about adam dunn That's just it. It's not a point about Adam Dunn. It' s a point that OBP and HRs aren't conclusive like you guys seem to make a case for.

While we're on the subject, could you please tell me who you think was a better player in 2008? Adam Dunn or Justin Morneau? I'm not just talking about how important they were for their respective teams. I want to know in a vacuum, who played better last year, Dunn or Morneau? Dunn had 40 HRs, 100 RBI, 79 R and posted a .236/.386/.513 line Morneau had 23 HRs, 129 RBI, 97 R, and posted a .300/.374/.499 line Please, just tell me who was better and what your justification was? I would love to hear what any of you guys think here and really want to understand your side of it. I don't care that Morneau isn't in the Cubs plans, I simply want to know which you think was better offensively last year. Morneau, and I never said he wasn't. My point is that him being better has absolutely nothing to do with RBIs. Nothing. What makes him better?

Morneau is an above avg. defender at 1B, which is an underrated defensive position, IMO. It's odd to try and use one of the best hitters in the AL to try and show how limited the value is of Dunn. I can't believe how bad of a hitter Morneau is.... Who's better him or Pujols? Please stop avoiding the question. I didn't ask you to compare the two for value. You guys are claiming that OBP and HRs are without a doubt under every circumstance the best possible stats to go by. I just showed you a guy, Morneau, that had a worse OBP and less HRs then Dunn. All I'm asking for is your judgment on who had a better offensive year. Is that a reason to be a wise guy about it?

Don't even count defense, which had a better offensive year? And if you have any justification, could you please share.

While we're on the subject, could you please tell me who you think was a better player in 2008? Adam Dunn or Justin Morneau? I'm not just talking about how important they were for their respective teams. I want to know in a vacuum, who played better last year, Dunn or Morneau? Dunn had 40 HRs, 100 RBI, 79 R and posted a .236/.386/.513 line Morneau had 23 HRs, 129 RBI, 97 R, and posted a .300/.374/.499 line Please, just tell me who was better and what your justification was? I would love to hear what any of you guys think here and really want to understand your side of it. I don't care that Morneau isn't in the Cubs plans, I simply want to know which you think was better offensively last year.

Just so you know, Dunn's career average with RISP is actually .225, not .241. http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=dunnad01&year=00 And... hi! I know who you are :D Thanks, that's slightly more useful than number of RBIs on Wednesdays. Can you grab that stat for me? It might be useful since the we need to know who steps up their game on Wednesdays and who suffers from the dreaded Hump-day jitters. Devaluing the ability to drive runs in when the best possibility is presented is silly. I won't say more then that. No, Theriot does not drive in runs the way an elite offensive player like Aramis Ramirez or Derrek Lee does. Again, you're trying to base your argument on trivializing my argument. That to me tells me you got nothin. This seems to be sort of common around here. Stick to the topic of discussion rather then trying to slander me please. Wins are mostly dependent on what your team can do for you offensively with a small emphasis on how well a pitcher can pitch and how well his defense fields for the pitcher. I would never judge a pitcher solely on wins, however there is a correlation between how good a pitcher is and how many wins he accumulates over his career. Anyway, I know you weren't really curious what I thought about wins. You were just hoping I would say they're important or imply that I think they're important so you can trivialize me and my argument. Nice try though. There is a huge difference between wins for a starting pitcher and being able to drive in runners in scoring position. If you guys can't understand that... then I don't know what to say. I guess all you can ask for is we somehow sign Dunn. Then you can hope for a walk when DLee is standing on third with two outs... cause Dunn has proven over the time of his career that he is 1.5 times more likely to strike out in that situation compared to actually getting a hit and scoring the run. Unless you think he'll magically change and be more likely to drive in the run then strike out... I guess that can always happen. I can't wait to see the giant BB signs in the outfield when Dunn walks to the plate with the winning run at third with 2 outs.

I wasn't necessarily arguing the merits of Dunn v Morneau there. Just the merits of looking at BA solely in determining a player's worth. Any time a player gets on base, it's productive. Is driving the man in more productive? Sure, but you can't just disregard the times he gets on base and gives the team (in our case Aramis Ramirez, one of the best hitters in the game today) a chance to drive in multiple runners. Yes, but in that same situation, a guy like Bradley is better then Dunn at a 3.2 PAw.RISP/RBI. On top of that, Bradley provides better defense and speed on the bases... and only falters by .010 points lifetime in OBP. And if you wanna talk about how Bradley will be injured, our little Mike Fontenot in his short career has 2.9 PAw.RISP/RBI(.369 OBP). And Reed Johnson is at 2.8(.344 OBP). Now, it's hard to argue that I would want Fontenot instead of Adam Dunn in my lineup, I will say this though. I do in fact prefer Bradley in the lineup and I personally don't mind taking the gamble on Bradley with the fact that Fontenot and Johnson would be the backup options.

there will be blood Not trying to be Mr. Smart Guy, but why the comparison of Dunn to either A) guys we already have(the Soriano comparison, they aren't even remotely similar) or B) guys were never going to get( Morneau) I'm more interested in how he compares to Bradley, which has at least been addressed some, Abreu, Burrell or any other guy that there's at least a minute possibility of playing RF for the Cubs next year. Soriano is being compared here because most people here have had extensive first hand knowledge on Soriano unlike Dunn. I compared Morneau to Dunn because Morneau is a good example of why having a good average with RISP can help a team more then a guy like Dunn who doesn't swing to contact. And, up to that point in the thread when I made the Morneau comparison, the conversation was going in circles when talking about Bradley v. Dunn. Pro Bradley: Bradley is the all around better player and hitter. Pro Dunn: Yeah, but he WILL be injured next year. Just made no sense to go on with it. @Dew: You would be right in your specific scenario, but that scenario isn't anywhere close to the actual stat comparisons between Morneau and Dunn. Morneau gets an RBI for every 2.5 plate appearances when he has RISP. Dunn gets an RBI in every 3.4 plate appearances in teh same situation. Morneau is way more productive then Dunn with RISP. For a more local comparison of that stat, our two consistent clutch run producers are at the 2.5 range along with Morneau. All of these guys know how to look at the situation and adjust to try to get the best possible outcome, which is score a run.

Just so you know, Dunn's career average with RISP is actually .225, not .241. http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=dunnad01&year=00 And... hi! I know who you are :D

sigged You're a fool if you think HRs = production. Sorry, but if you've read the last few posts, you'd see that a guy like Morneau will always out produce Dunn... no matter what lineup each is respectively in.

If your point is that nobody here knows anything for sure, then I guess I'll concede. We'll just see how this thing unravels. But a flyout gives you a chance of extending the inning? I don't get that. Are you talking about guys getting bloop hits and finding holes because they make contact? Yes. This is the basis for virtually every Cub player since Lou has arrived. Make sure to make contact first in a two strike count. It gives them an opportunity for a bloop hit, an erratic ground ball that finds a hole, or every once in a while an infield hit or error. I'm not saying any player should count on getting on base that way, but I know for sure it gives you a tremendously better chance than making an out at the plate and that this approach has a significant effect on a players results. I don't understand how putting the ball in play is only helpful in determining how good a player might end up and cannot help a player like Dunn. Disagree. In Dunn's case, I can only assume it's a matter of baseball smarts. The guy fails to score runners in scoring position and strikes out in that situation A LOT. If he were to try to make contact first, who knows? Maybe he hits a bloop that scores a guy from second more often. Maybe he gets a sac fly now and then. Maybe he fouls off pitches until he gets a good one to hit. His strikeouts have nothing to do with plate discipline and I know it. I honestly don't care how many home runs the guy hits. I only care about production. 40 HRs is pretty, I can't deny, but look at a guy like Justin Morneau. He only hit 23 HRs. But, he drove in 29 more RBIs then Dunn did. Why? I can't tell you for sure, but I can guess it has at least a little bit to do with the fact that he struck out 80 times less then Dunn did. I'm not saying all of his production is from cutting down his swing, but I think it had a big effect on it.

I don't think you can argue that high OBP players don't get paid anymore. Dunn is not getting attention on the market like many older players are. Backtobanks made a great point about how you people seem to think too many GMs in baseball are incapable of running their position... but there's a reason they're there right? And there has to be a reason Dunn isn't really on the top of anyone's list, right? Not true. On average a good batter is going to do worse when a good pitcher is throwing the ball, I can't argue that. But Soriano has disappeared during the last two post seasons. Not just bad, but horrid: .343 OPS in 2007 and .142 OPS in 2008. He was absolutely taken advantage of. The Dunn post-season comments on my behalf were a regrettable error. Not thinking, I was making comments on Dunn's post season appearance with the Diamondbacks this year... which obviously didn't happen. One last comment. I see a lot of people that make assumptions that because a person doesn't like the way Dunn plays the game, they do not value OBP. It's not all about not liking OBP and really more about making contact on some ABs where he strikes out. Sure, taking the walk is great in virtually every situation, but striking out gives you ZERO chance to keep the inning going. The guy gives himself zero chance way too much when all it would take is cutting his swing down to make contact.

I can't tell if you guys just don't realize it or if you purposely go out of your way to twist words to make a person's argument irrelevant. I knew exactly what he meant by the Dunn v. Soriano comparison. He didn't mean they both have a low average and high OBP. He didn't mean they're both selective on pitches. He didn't mean any of that and I'm pretty sure you know it but you're going to make it out like that's what he meant because you want to paint the scene as if he knows nothing. Clapp compared the two in the fact that THEY DON'T GET THE JOB DONE WHEN NEEDED. Soriano has shown us when he's been with the Cubs that he can take advantage of mediocre pitching to drive up his numbers and when he is faced with high caliber talent he creates outs. Now, I can't tell you if it's true or not, but I'm thinking you can't either. Cubsclapp seems to have seen Dunn more than we have and mentioned his stint in the playoffs this year which sounds eerily familiar to what we have seen from Soriano. It sounds to me like he's had the opportunity to make the assessment. You can look at a guy's numbers as much as you want, but you still can't get the full story. We saw it with Soriano for crying out loud. I just want you guys to figure out that it may not be the best idea to blindly defend the guy. I think this quote sums up what I'm seeing here. So everyone else in the business of baseball is wrong, but this hodge-podge group of forumites is right? With all due respect, give me a break.

Personally, I don't want to rely on JUST ARam, or Soto, or whoever bats behind Dunn to take care of business. I would rather have a guy that can get the run in from second or third base in front of ARam/Soto/whoever. That way we get two very good chances and no mater what number you guys put up, you can't argue that.

BTW, I forgot to explain this concept. When you have a man on third, I think you have a limited amount of opportunities to score him. So the idea that "not making an out" is actually backwards in this situation because it's really just a failed opportunity to score the runner. Given that on a league average basis, about 2/3 of plate appearances result in outs, I just believe that scoring a runner on third base in any opportunity you're given is paramount. Anything less is pretty much failure... unless a Neifi type player walks to set up a Aramis type player at the plate.

Not making an out is getting the job done. Welcome to the forum. While I thank you for the welcome (I have been lurking for years btw), I have to respectfully disagree. Also, I wish you would go into more details then just the one line answer, especially given the justifications for why it's not getting the job done I have given. The thinking behind "Not making an out is getting the job done" is that the more guys you get on base the more likely you are to not only score, but also have a big inning - i.e. "put up a crooked number." Each team has a limited number of outs with which to score more runs than the other team, so a player who doesn't use up a many of those outs is valuable. Also, most of a pitcher's desire to have Dunn on base is not because he's slow - it's because any pitch at all can end up in the seats. He doesn't hit for a very good average, but Dunn can slug with the best of hitters. Of coarse Dunn can slug well, but pitchers make the decision to try for a two out opportunity rather then give him that opportunity (which with Dunn, a two out opportunity is relatively higher then many other players in the league). Now, assuming he bats between ARam and Lee and there's a runner on third, there's going to be a good opportunity after Dunn walks because ARam has a substantially better average with RISP. However, that sets up a two out opportunity for the pitcher and the only way Dunn on first base helps directly in his AB is if ARam hits a long ball or in a very very long shot a ball is hit in a place where Dunn is able to score from first... which both are not very likely in this situation unlikely. The thing is, you can't rely on your whole lineup to walk to set up opportunities because the law of averages is working against you, even with a team that was so good at getting on base as the Cubs. I am a big believer in OBP as a general concept, but in this specific situation when you have a player of the caliber and renown of Dunn, you need him to drive in your runs instead of extending your possibility for creating an out.