Last August Sean Marshall's ERA was 6.21 over 27.2 innings in six starts. He'd pitched 70 innings, and pretty good innings, leading up to that, starting in late May. Now, I suspect another year of experience will generate some extra knowledge and endurance, but banking on him to be effective from mid-May through October 2008 would be a foolish gamble. It is reasonable to prefer to live with an ERA around 5 and maybe better from Jason Marquis (4.45 in April) up until July, when they think they'll have both more knowledge of their younger pitchers, and more confidence that they won't fade before the end of the year. Why turn a bunch of young pitchers into Jason Marquis? A bet on Marquis to be an average bottom of the rotation starter for the first half of the season is a pretty good bet. One that is actually paying off. They are 3-3 in his starts. In one victory they bailed him out. In one loss, a good outing was wasted. .500 in games by a number 5 starter suggests something dramatically better than .500 in games by the starters who are better than he is. :facepalm: