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haltz

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Everything posted by haltz

  1. haltz
    Before this year, PECOTA saw him settling in at a .280-.285 EqA for however long, apparently putting a lot of stock in his impressive age 22-23 seasons. That's about where Jeter and Guillen were this year offensively. His UZR numbers aren't so hot, and were just brutal through the first half of this year however.
  2. haltz
    One version is that Dolan offered him a raise and near term GM succession to keep him in Cleveland. I suppose that's possible. But, it would seem odd to me that a guy waits who knows how many years for a GM opening with Cleveland when he could land a GM job now. There were apparently some contract and autonomy issues along with Dolan luring him back to Cleveland. It would presumably happen in the near future like I said, with Shapiro taking over as CEO or President or whatever. Rosenthal reported on FSMW that he turned down the job just now. The ESPN story had quotes from Antonetti saying he turned down the job, that are now removed (the Lamping and DeWitt spin machine denied that they offered it to anyone but Mo). It's all documented in the BTF and GRB threads on the topic though. Anyway, same result. We'll see how Mozeliak does, but he better step it up after the Pineiro signing.
  3. haltz
    One version is that Dolan offered him a raise and near term GM succession to keep him in Cleveland.
  4. haltz
    That makes sense. I wish there was more available information on these guys in general. As far as the original topic goes, they need to go ahead and make something official.
  5. haltz
    Tettleton, Stanley, Chief Meyers, Daulton and others show up on a (min 700 games at catcher) OPS+ leaderboard. Jason Kendall is 13th in Runs Created. Weird.
  6. haltz
    Why the love for one Shapiro assistant and not the other?
  7. haltz
    Similar to the A-Rod situation, I think people are too heavily weighting his most recent performance. He's not going to have a .375 BABIP every year, and that career 97 OPS+ and not-so-hot defense is hard to get around. Not that he isn't a decent player at a league average EqA and acceptable defense. When MORP says he's worth exactly what he's owed (assuming the option is exercised) I think you've got a problem. The Tigers gave up 12 years of funny named production for a $200k house with a $200k mortgage (if that).
  8. haltz
    It won't happen, and I hope it doesn't, but 2008 won't stop them from signing a megadeal if that's what they want to do. Same thing with the Cubs. I don't see how Dempster or someone has anything to do with paying A-Rod some made-up number of dollars.
  9. haltz
    PECOTA? I'm sure a lot of teams have their own proprietary systems, which isn't news. There are plenty of statistically savvy teams that might see a bit of a bounce-back and good defense for next year. He's owed, what, $5M and that's it? I don't watch the Cubs enough to say whether he looks lost at the plate, and I'm not scout, but he had a similar year in 2004 and it hasn't deterred him from hanging around the 100 OPS+ mark since.
  10. haltz
    PECOTA thinks (or did before last year, not that I put a lot of stock in their long-term projections) that he'll be a league average hitter in 2008, and at least one person has him playing an excellent CF in 2007. I don't really disagree with your premise, but I figured I'd point that out.
  11. haltz
    Actually. preventing 60 runs would have a greater effect since the ratio of RS/RA is changed more when you lower the denominator. I said about. In pythagorean terms it's less than a win.
  12. haltz
    This isn't really true. Edmonds had one of the better CF peaks of all time, and that was his career year posting a 170 OPS+. Rolen had a 157 OPS+ and was +24 in UZR at 3B. Pujols moved to 1B that year and posted a 172 OPS+. Carpenter was good, but not like he would be in 2005 and 2006. That was the year he came out of nowhere and he only threw 180 innings.
  13. haltz
    They were 90 runs apart using LWTS last year (-22 to +70). I called it +40 for ARod for my conservative projection of sorts, which is about an average year for him. Also, I don't really trust that lineup tool, but that's neither here nor there in this case. I'd also be pretty scared that his defense would be worse than Theriot's, but like I said I really don't know. Cedeno's probably an in house upgrade anyway. Only if you are concerned with pitcher wins, which you shouldn't be. Saving 60 extra runs or generating 60 extra runs should have about the same effect.
  14. haltz
    Just eyeballing BRef btRuns, and ignoring defense (no clue), ARod is probably 60 runs better than Theriot 2007. So, Santana would need to be something like 2.7 R/9 better than who he replaces over 200 innings to approximate that.
  15. haltz
    I don't think he's much of a CF. You aren't going to come up with a whole lot of guys that are slow at SS, 2B or CF. Arbitrarily (it's late, I just made up the criteria obviously which may not be any good) setting some bounds on BRefPI, and realizing that all these players aren't exactly TTO guys in the strictest sense, we get some names like this: CF: Dale Murphy, Jim Edmonds, Andruw Jones, Gorman Thomas, Mickey Mantle, Duke Snider, Lance Berkman (1 season) 2B: Jeff Kent (1 season), Jay Bell (1 season) SS: ARod (1 season) [K > 100, BB > 70, PA > 502, SB < 12, HR > 25 (293 total player seasons)] So, not so much with the middle infielders, but you've got some of the better CF seasons of all-time represented there. 28 CF seasons total and 3 middle infield seasons. If we take the Ks down to 80 and let guys steal bases, we get a list of 12 middle infielders. A-Rod (4 times) and Kent (twice) are the only players that show up more than once. Lopes, Sandberg, Ripken, Bell, D Johnson, and Alfonzo show up once apiece. This gives us 603 seasons total, of which CF make up 74. But this is an even looser interpretation of what you all are talking about, I guess.
  16. haltz
    That's putting it mildly. He had easily the worst offensive year of his career, since he became a full-time player. He just so happened to play 158 games for a 970-run offense.
  17. haltz
    I don't really agree with this. Or at least that there's anything anti-sabermetric about it. There are certain ways to construct a team that are most effective, but it's not like you can just go to the OPS and defense tree and start picking position players. Like you said, what Beane is interested in is getting runs (or saving them) for the best value, regardless of how they are generated, how old the player is, what he looks like, if he's been injured, or is a clubhouse cancer. Sounds pretty sabermetric to me. Anyway, the copy of Moneyball that I have has a new afterword that is pretty interesting (though I don't know when it was added). This sums it up pretty well, I think:
  18. haltz
    THT: Is LaRussa right to bat his pitcher in the eight slot?
  19. haltz
    Where does it say he used steroids? No they wouldn't, and I'm not being a literalist here. This logic of "I'd do or give anything ... except take hGH" is weird.
  20. haltz
    "Just a disgusting act!" Buck exclaimed. He then added, "jub-jub."
  21. haltz
    Well, this is pretty much a lose-lose situation for you.
  22. haltz
    I don't think the Sox would move him because of the lunatic fringe. Same difference, but on further review he also has a full NTC. Do you think the Cubs are in a position to work out an extension for Manny? Does he want to leave Boston?
  23. haltz
    Why would they do this, and doesn't he have 10-5 rights now?
  24. haltz
    What is this? I'm not being condescending or nasty or off-topic (until I felt like you took my comment the wrong way and I explained myself). Grant me whatever courtesies you want; it'll have nothing to do with my behavior.
  25. haltz
    Settle down. I don't post a ton here, but I remember our Franklin exchange from whenever that was (and it was here, or do you mean another forum on this board?). Someone at GRB had part of it in their sig for a while. My intentions when I referenced it were in good humor, I promise. In fact, I brought it up so you didn't think I was just trying to pick a fight with you about the same subject again. I guess it had the opposite effect.
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