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questionmarkgrace

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Everything posted by questionmarkgrace

  1. You can call the cuban league a double a league or a triple a league if you want but the fact of the matter is that guys that are dominant there have typically remained a star here. The hernandez brothers, Contreras, Alexie Ramirez, Kendrys Morales. Chapman has been injured pretty much the whole time he has been here. Even recent guys like viciedo and leonys martin have been very successful at a young age and look like they will be very good major leaguers. Finding a comparison for what he has done in cuba. Each player's last season in cuba. Stats are woefuly incomplete and very difficult to find. Alexei Ramirez 2007: .335/ ??? /574 20 hr's (Home run champ) Kendrys Morales 2002: .324/ ??? / .577 21 hr's (new rookie record) Yoanis Cespedes 2011: .333/.424/.667 33 hr's (home run champ, new record) Everyone seems to hit for high average in cuba Morales once hit .391 and cespedes hit .345 last year. This will most certainly be the biggest adjustment for Cespedes as both morales and Ramirez struggled mightly early on only to pick it adjust after a few months. .260-.280 is probably more realistic for his first season in the MLB with potential to be a .300 hitter. The power however seems to have staying power mainly because these guys are hitting so many homeruns in approximately a half of a mlb season. Cepedes is averaging between 40 and 50 extra base hits per season and he has been very consistent in doing so. Stretched out for a full season Ramirez hit 21 hr's in his first go around with the pale hose. Thus I dont think it would be crazy to see cespedes hit 25-30 in is first year in the US. With 20-30 more extra base hits from doubles and triples. He should slug close to .500. On base percentage, however, is a question mark. Leonys martin was amongst the lead leaders, #5 to be exact, with a .491 clip in 2008 Cespedes had a .404 obp that year. With high averages inflating the obp he will certainly see a drop in this area of production. He's clearly not yuniesky betancourt bad but he's not bonds either. Its kind of a crapshoot as to where his obp may fall. Conventional wisdom suggests that as long as he hits for power however he should maintain a fairly good obp, although we have learned all too painfully that this is not always true. My guess .333 Offensively I'm thinking he is going to look alot like 2004 Soriano at least initially. But if his defense is lock down as others suggest I'm thinking a 3.1 war should be in reach with 5 or more prime years to follow At which point, he will probably be worth a $60 million dollar contract. Also If someone has more complete stats from past cuban years post them. some data pulled from these articles http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8152 http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2011/11/will-the-cubs-pursue-yoenner-cespedes/ http://www.baseballdecuba.com/Players-50SN/YCespedes-GRM.html http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/2001-2002_Cuban_National_League
  2. interesting could be epstein's redirect to keep other teams guessing or that Cafardo's ties to our gm and pres are revealing how the cubs brass really feels. My gut tells me that the cubs simply asked for Fielder's medical records yielding crasnick's interpretation leaked via Boras. But who knows. http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/346989/cubs-not-major-players-for-prince-fielder
  3. This seems like a vey epstein like move. Howell is about to be nontendered by the rays after a disapointng post surgery. He had a 6.00 era but he still held lefties to .222 avg. So at worst hes a situational lefty that fills grabows role. But his dominance in previous years suggests that if healthy he could be a mid inning or even a setup guy. A good buy low candidate imo.
  4. Luckily being the manager doesn't involve standing down the 3rd base line and waving runners home right? Bullet dodged. I cant tell if you were agreeing with me or not. This is why we need a sarcasm symbol. If you are agreeing with me yes. If not then being manager does involve critical decision making skills which in the past have been questionable.
  5. Maddux or Francona would have been a much better choice imo. Its hard to have faith in a guy as a manager that was boston's version of waving wendell kim. Also I'm not too keen on the prospects of aggressive defensive shifts with anybody currently on the cubs. Im hoping he takes the Bo-sox job.
  6. this is probably a good strategy. The Marlins pretty much need to have this guy and will probably pay much more than 30 mil to get him. It just makes sense for establishing their fan base in the new stadium. Morrison is valuable player and the marlins front office is full of ego maniacs so he will most likely be available. But then again I really think Cespedes will come to the mlb and continue to mash. 35 homeruns in 70 games is crazy. obviously the cuban leagues arent the mlb but I dont think it would be a stretch to say that he could be a 35 homer guy here as well. And he plays plus plus defense in centerfield? 30 million would be a steal. I cant remember any cuban hitter in the last 30 years that has been as accomplished as Cespedes and left the island in their prime. Obviously Contreras comes to mind when thinking of high profile guys but he was like 35 when he jumped ship.
  7. The Marlins are going to be hot and heavy for this guy because of their desire to draw a large cuban population to the new stadium. He would be an instant fan favorite down there. But we should most certainly be involved. Beyond being an athletic specimen, (did you see that broad jump!) cespedes is a potential major league all star. His cuban numbers say that he is a 5 tool talent.
  8. Lets just platoon lahair with zambrano at first base on off days against lefties. My guess is they equal or surpass pena's numbers from this year.
  9. Who are you talking about Colvin? I think you need to go back and look at who played on his teams. Quite a few of those players have graduated to become major leaguers. More than I can remember coming up from the cubs system in a long while.
  10. And you're 200% wrong. So, because I think Ryno should be manager and you don't makes me a troll? Well done. No. Because you keep saying things like "He's paid his dues" and "It's called buying what the manager is selling." Not to mention citing his hall of fame career as a reason he is qualified to be a manager. So how do managers ever get their chance in your world? Minor league manager, former player? Not named Ryne Sandberg? Did Mike Quade not pay his dues? What made you so sure he wasn't qualified while thinking Sandberg is? I think quade has proved to no longer be qualified and thats the point. THe thing with sandberg though is that yes he may have illustrated a teaching moment in the minors but that doesnt mean he would do something like that in the majors. Teaching kids how to play is primary in the minors. While it certainly comes into play in the majors it is not the focus of a managers job. And my comment earlier about how bad many cubs players have looked doesnt come as a slight on Sandberg at all. I was speaking mainly to the highly talented and poorly prepared likes of Pie and Patterson players emblematic of poor player develpment from years past. If anything the guys we have seen come through the system the last two or so years have been much more prepared to play and discerning of what is required of them. maybe thats Wilken drafting better players or maybe its development but its probably at bit of both. Barney in particular said he benefitted quite a bit from sandberg and while he may be a minor cog in the grand scheme of things it is nice to see someone know their role. Unfortunately, Quade did not know what role barney should be in.
  11. ever hear ryno in the booth? he's like a dumber ron santo without the craziness or personality. Hey, I'm not saying I WANT the guy in the booth. That just seems like a PR move that makes more sense than going out of their way to make him manager and forcing him on the new GM. I think Ryno is widely regarded as a really solid managerial candidate virtually everywhere outside of this message board. Thus I dont think it would be a stretch that Theo, if he became gm, would be open to hiring him as well. Its not Like Francona had an exceptional record of greatness before he came to the redsox. In fact he was more well known for losing a lot of games with the phillies. I think in many ways you guys have construed Ryno's message that teaching the kids to the "play the game the right way" some how equates to assinine situations where your 3 hitter is laying down a bunt when runners are in scoring position. I think that there is a big difference between teaching moments in the minors which he has been criticized for here, and how he may manage a game in majors. If anything, I appreciate what he did as a coach here because so many cubs players have somehow made it through our system without a lick of fundamentals only to fail miserably at the major league level.
  12. Between Lou and Quade our lineups have been all over the place. Hopefully when Quade gets canned we can get some consistency. Soriano is definetly one of those guys who need not be moved around. Preferably put him in a spot where he can see alot of fastballs and leave him alone.
  13. You can't tell if his glove is open or not in that picture. Bad fielder or not, it's a pretty safe assumption that a fielder's glove is going to be open mere milliseconds before the ball is supposed to land. Not when it's a bad fielder trying to make a tremendous catch. For what its worth I always thought that he would have made the catch. But to add fuel to the fire Alou maintained he would have had it many times while he played in chicago. but when he went to play for the mets he said he wouldnt have made the catch. The thing that perplexed me the most though is that he was listening to the radio. I was doing the same after I walked into parents house from a late night class and had my head phones on. Paranoid as I was, I left them on while watching the game. Now if my memory serves me right when the ball was popped in the air and on its way toward the bullpen wall area Ronny shouted something to the effect of "get back, give him room." My mind could have completely fabricated that part but that is how I recall it. You would think that even in the heat of the moment that he would have reconsidered in mid lunge hearing ronny say? Or maybe he was jamming out to some B96. :D At any rate it really doesnt matter because if it wasnt him one of the other 16 hands grabbing for the ball would have done the same.
  14. :) this is a great sign. why some of these guys had such longevity with little results continues to baffle me but at least Ricketts seems to be moving in the right direction.
  15. The Cubs have as much or more money (from the estimates I've seen) coming off the books than anybody else this offseason. If the Cubs are committed to bringing in at least one of those players, they should not be outbid for that player. Every one of them would have to be willing to take less money to go elsewhere and that's very unlikely. Or it would mean that teams threw out ridiculously high offers to every one of those players, which is also very unlikely. Keep in mind as well that the Cubs can heavily backload one of the deals if they pursue both Fielder and Wilson. They could set up, say, Wilson's contract so that he's only getting $10 million next year on a (for instance) 5/100 deal. If they're simply picking up Aramis' option, they obviously can't backload it. That gives them a bit more flexibility going the Fielder/Wilson route. Why is it unlikely that a guy like wilson is involved in a bidding war? in a year where there are a minimum of quality starters available and plenty of teams with a need that seems like a very optimistic picture of free agency. The simple dynamics of supply and demand suggest otherwise. Plus neither of these players will accept a backloaded contract because it is tantamount to a loss in money due to inflation. You would have to severely over pay for a tier 1 free agent like fielder or Wilson to accept any deferred money because other teams wont defer money. Plus the cubs are no longer seen as a team that has a good chance of winning as they were between 04 and 09. The cubs may have tons of money yes but also have more holes fill with that money. thus they are probably more limited as to what they can offer an individual player than say a team like the red sox or angels that are one starting pitcher away with less overall money coming off the books. The cubs must simultaneously pursue a franchise first baseman and try to resign aramis. I want all the things that you are saying to happen but I just dont think free agency will go like we want it to dew.
  16. It wont be local anymore they were just bought out and are moving to NYC. The thing with old style is that it has familiarity. My dad drank old style and those were the first ones I could sneak and for whatever reason its just the beer that I like. Particularly, in the tall boy six pack. I like good beers like 3 floyds and spatten but there is something about old style that always feels right.
  17. As hard as it is to be in favor of letting Aramis walk, I still think they can replace him internally much more easily and effectively than they can fill 1st base or the top of the rotation internally. As good as Aramis has been, I really think Fielder/Pujols and Wilson are more important to the Cubs' chances of winning next year than Aramis is, because we can replace him with a Baker/Flaherty platoon and probably still be above average at third. Of course, if Ricketts ups payroll and we can afford all three, I'm all for bringing back Aramis. I'm not sure fielder plus flarhety/baker is much better than ramirez and pena. Seems to me its more like a wash. Obviously having fielder is better for the future through
  18. I guess that addresses one aspect of the franchise but that would be misleading from what the original article suggests would be announced. Personally, I hate the idea of the city paying anything at all to fix wrigley field. Give them a tax break if they want in combination with tif funding but dont allocate funds from the general budget when they are slashing money for education and services like fire and police.
  19. I could also see Hendry being elevated to team president. We all want to see him go but lets face it Hendry is probably here to stay for at least a year if not more. I will be very surprised, and elated, if hendry is indeed fired.
  20. This is unfortunate if true. Its nice to see us spend on the farm but its seems all for naught if we cant mix in some top free agent talent. The chances of us pulling off what the marlins did in 03 and 97 with almost all home grown talent is slim, especially for an organizational without any legitimate philosophy on player development. In think we may be reading this wrong though. It might not be the cubs going cheap. there is a chance that the cubs now realize that they cannot fix this teams problems with a single big acquisition. With Ramirez's option to pick up, possibly two starting pitching spots open, first base, and maybe outfield there just isnt enough money to go around. Plus signing Fielder suggests that we are losing out on Ramirez because we still need help in other areas. Getting fielder and playing Baker and Flarhety at third is also (approximately) only equal to retaining Ramirez and Pena offensively. Clearly the preference is to keep Ramirez, sign Fielder, and a starter. That would really improve our team. But I dont think the money is there to do all of that.
  21. I would love to fill the hole at 1B with Fielder or Pujols as long as we can do it without signing either of them for 6+ years, but I don't know if that's very realistic. I was perusing a list of 2012 free agents, and saw some interesting names besides the turds you listed. I would welcome guys like Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer as cheaper offensive options assuming the Colvin experiment doesn't work out. I've seen a lot of talk about C.J. Wilson on here. He's a great pitcher, but since he's one of the bigger names available, he's going to get paid. Paul Maholm's overall numbers actually compare pretty similarly to Wilson's (minus the strikeouts) and I would assume he could be had much cheaper. Although, I would expect Wilson's numbers to improve with a move to the NL. I guess I'm just saying I don't think it's an absolute necessity to sign the sexy names this offseason in order to improve the team. It seems perfectly reasonable to me for the FO to have concerns about sinking big bucks into one player. Basically, the Olney tweet is pretty damn obvious. By the way, here's the list I was using. http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2001/04/potential-free-agents-for-2012.html If it's incorrect, or if I'm missing something, I apologize. To me, keeping Ramirez around for next season should be the top priority. 3B will be a [expletive] otherwise. I like Maholm enough. I think the Pirates will likely keep him. That said ... the strikeouts are gigantic factor. I just found it interesting that you would say they are similar minus the strikeouts. CJ's ability to get people to whiff is why folks consider him a solid mid-rotation starter, a 2, 2/3 type of guy. Maholm's more of a 4th starter type on a good squad, maybe a 3rd starter. It's not a gigantic difference, but there is a significant enough difference because of the strikeouts. It's quibbling but I think Wilson is more of a TOR 1/2 type than a 2/3 type. This is assuming the team doesn't have the all powerful "true ace," which most team's don't. He's the Rangers ace right now, and was their 2 last year only after Lee was acquired. His big peripheral improvements plus my amateur eye show a pitcher who's taken to the SP role extremely well. my concern is that he still walks a heck of a lot of people and his BABIP will rise considerably with a move to the cubs. Those two factors suggest that, all things being equal, he wont be as good here as with the Rangers. But then again he could move to the NL and just completely dominate.
  22. Word is that Cubs 2011 7th round pick 1B-OF Trevor Gretzky's contract was either voided by the Cubs or was rejected by MLB. The signing was officially reported by the Cubs via the MLB eBis system on July 22, but then the Cubs did not place him on a minor league Reserve List within 15 days, as would be required if everything was OK. Whether the contract was voided because of a pre-existing medical condition (like his torn labrum) or rejected by MLB because of the way it was structured, I don't know, but he is back in California and is now considered "unsigned." The Cubs apparently have now turned their attention toward signing 1B Rock Shoulders (25th round draft pick out of Florida State JC/Manatee CC, who supposedly wants 4th or 5th round money to sign), with the signing of 2nd round pick 1B Dan Vogelbach (with an over-slot bonus) expected to be delayed until the deadline (8/15). More from Jim Callis It doesn't necessarily sound like the signing was voided. Callis makes it sound more like MLB is attempting backsies on the announcement. We'll see what happens come 8/15. I dont get it why let teams sign guys for over slot money just to make the team sweat over whether or not it will be accepted? Stupid Selig.
  23. gibbs has been a huge disappointment. i mean, you don't expect a third round guy to be a star right away, but you expect a guy being drafted pretty early out of LSU to be able to hit. now it's looking like he's a longshot to make it as a weak-hitting, good defensive backup. IIRC, Gibbs was drafted with the hope his bat would eventually catch up with his defense so his offensive deficiencies were to be expected even though he hit .300 his last year at LSU. But I'm not sure if they thought he would be this bad. to me it just seems like we do a pretty good job at finding catchers for cheap or converting guys to catch. I'm ok with that approach because it allows the cubs to allocate funds elsewhere, which is why I was surprised by the draft. 3 catchers in the top 15 seems like overkill especially because we only drafted 4 pitchers in that same span of picks. Yes, I realize that our pitching is not so thin at the bottom levels but I still think a couple extra pitchers in the top 15 picks could be a nice thing to have.
  24. BA Marra's a good signing. The Cubs have had a decent haul at catcher in this draft so far. the real question is did we need so much depth at catcher so early in the draft? I know the cubs preached up the best available approach but clearly pitching is an organizational need while catcher is not with guys like gibbs, clevenger, and castillo hanging around. I think the cubs have done a really good job developing catchers with a minimum of expenditure so why 'waste' a draft pick when there are clearly other areas of need?
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