CubColtPacer

He doesn't have to now-Floyd is not in the standard lineup either. Right. Now he can just say Murton hasn't produced either, even though a) he hasn't really had a chance; and b) he's still just as good as Jones. Meanwhile the Cubs sink further into oblivion and nobody addresses the obvious problem...they can't get on base. I think the on-base problem won't be as big as people are projecting it to be. They are not in the bottom 10 of the majors this year, so that already is a significant improvement from last year. Then, when you look at the statistics, the only regular that is really too high on their OBP is Lee. The people who are lower OBP wise to what they were projected to do includes Soriano, Floyd, Izturis, Murton, Cedeno, Pie, and Blanco. If they return to what they are supposed to do, then this team should be in the top half of the league in OBP.

I'm guessing the reason now is that Pie is up for his defensive prowess in CF, so that only leaves 1 spot for JJ, Floyd, and Murton (in that order, I think). But I'd like to know why Murton is 3rd in the pecking order there. I don't think he's 3rd in the pecking order. My guess is that while this situation continues that Murton will get the 2nd most starts there.

He doesn't have to now-Floyd is not in the standard lineup either.

Good. Unless the Cubs can not pay him ace money, I don't want him. It's very strange, but I find myself more excited about the potential to trade Zambrano for some high-end prospects than anything else about the Cubs' season. The sad part about that is that they probably wont even attempt to trade him and he will walk at the end of the year with us having gotten nothing for him. :( Is a possible scenario that we trade Big Z by the deadline for 2 high prospects (either pitcher or fielder). Big Z doesn't like the team he gets traded to, realizes that he'd like a reprieve w/ the Cubs and we re-sign him. Can this happen? Has it happended before? ponson did it a few years back. can't think of anyone on z's level that has done it, though. Why would anyone trade for Z when they can get him for nothing after the season? He's surely not going to be signed by the Cubs with the sale pending. I find it highly likely that we get zilch for Z. Unless that said team is trying to make the playoffs and would need a pitcher like Z. Happens every year... Then it would have to be for prospects. No team is giving us someone like ARod or Cabrera at the deadline if they're trying to make the playoffs. Oh I agree. But you have to get something for Z. He's not going to re-sign if he goes FA next offseason. With the sale of the team going on signing FA's isn't going to happen.. By that point, signing FA's will be back on I'm sure. The only question is if Z will give us anywhere close to the same deal.

I think you're over-estimating Murton's trade value. There simply aren't all that many teams that can afford his lack of power at a corner OF spot, and especially if he is going to play LF. I'm not sure of too many teams who would give up a decent return for him at all. Now, the sad thing is that Murton definitely does have quite a bit of value to a team, and the way the Cubs are constructed with power at scarce spots they don't really need a huge power bat in LF. So Murton with his high OBP would have quite a bit of value to a team like the Cubs (and any team built like them) but apparently not right now with this team.

Well, when I thought Murton would get at-bats, I didn't expect this Soriano moving to LF so quickly and Pie staying up with Jones here as well. That is really, really bad for Murton's PT-and with Lou settled on a consistent lineup for now that doesn't include Murton confirms that. My guess is that Murton will still get the starts against left-handers, and it looks like Floyd has almost been completely shut out from starting right now. Until either Pie goes down or Jones is traded, that unfortunately for both of those players is likely to continue.

I actually read a newspaper account that says the Colts are seriously considering shocking the world by picking this player at 32. While I'm not sure I believe that, at this juncture he is great value for the club. With that in mind, the Colts select LB-Justin Durant, Hampton The Colts have been quite willing to go down to small schools to find talent. They have several starters that are from non-Division 1 schools, including defensive starters Robert Mathis and Antoine Bethea. Durant is quick, hard-hitting, and is very smart on the field. That fits in quite well with what the Colts like to have in their LB core.

There is little chance that Hill gets pitcher of the month now. Tim Hudson is 3-0 in 4 GS with an 0.62 ERA Brad Penny is 3-0 in 4 GS with a 1.37 ERA Those two are probably the favorites right now-Hill, Cain, John Maine, Jason Marquis, Kyle Lohse, and Tim Gorzellany have outside shots if those 2 struggle.

What's their record when Theriot starts? From a quick count...3-6.

I think all of us would agree with that. I completely disagree-a disgrace? Let's review what they have done this season. DeRosa has hit for a lot more power (176 points worth of slugging after tonight). He has walked quite a bit more (6 BB's in 62 AB's vs. Theriot's 2 in 51). He also is a superior defender IMO, but we can throw that one out if you disagree with that. Theriot has one advantage and one advantage only-OBP. 35 points of it to be exact after tonight's game-with an OBP that is highly dependent on a very high BA. So far, I don't see how Theriot deserves to start over DeRosa-in fact DeRosa has taken a step towards proving that he deserves the job.

Hill's not the one who really needs more run support (if that's what you're talking about-he's got plenty in all his starts before this one. Now Lilly tomorrow-the team has scored 1 run combined in his last 2 starts.

You using Firefox? Yeah. https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/722 You wont be able to click on the smilies on the left when replying anymore, but you wont see those darn adds either. I don't have noscript-I only have the adblock extension, but I don't see any adds and I can still click on the smilies.

Where was the rest of his team :D Even Jordan needed Pippen, Reggie never had a player of that caliber playing with him.

88 over 600 AB's

especially since he was the "payoff" for an asset with some value Yeah, that was definitely part of the equation. Its funny that literally getting nothing for Maddux would have been so much better. Well, I know this only makes it slightly better-but at least if Izturis hadn't been traded for, Neifi probably wouldn't have been traded (because he would have been the starting second baseman at the time) and then Theriot would not have been on this team at all, because he wouldn't have gotten the time he did when Neifi was traded and then Izturis got hurt.

Mench can't hit right-handers-at all. not completely true, but he's definitely a lot better against LHP Yeah, I looked it up and realized I was over-stating it. A .737 OPS the last 3 years against right-handers.

Mench can't hit right-handers-at all.

The Bills select Allen Barbre out of Missouri Southern State. They need a quality OT, and Barbre is quite an athlete at the position and should compete for a starting job almost immediately.

Maybe that should tell you something about how useless pythagorean records are this early in the season. Pyth record means nothing. Actual wins and losses mean something. The Cubs have actually won just 36.8% of their games, and they actually have to play a lot better if they want to be in the race this year. And what is the biggest reason for that? The Cubs inability to hit in close and late situations. Here are the Cubs regular splits and their splits in those situations: Regular: .264/.322/.402 Close and Late: .198/.286/.237 Now someone that has a lesser understanding of statistics would look at this and simply call the Cubs "un-clutch" and forecast no change. However you know as well as I do that the longer the season goes along, the more likely it is that the second batch of numbers becomes closer to the first. In fact, from the way Lou uses his bench, it is likely that the second batch of numbers should be slightly higher than the first (as he uses his bench liberally to get the best matchups). As that happens, the Cubs will win a lot more close games. Now, there's a second big issue-bullpen usage. The team either has to get better performances out of people like Eyre or change how they use their bullpen. Until then, they won't have as good of a record in close games as they will in blowouts. However, it still won't be anywhere near what the team is doing now if the hitting picks up in those "clutch" situations like it is supposed to.

That could work both ways. Right now, they only have 2 guys with more than an inning of work with an ERA over 4.00 out there. They've got 3 guys, Wuertz, Dempster and Cotts, who are actually outperforming a bit. Yup-which is why the statistics still have the bullpen in the top half of the league.

The only people talking about their 1-run record are the people who keep blaming their struggle on luck and blindly expecting things to just even out. Pythagorean record doesn't mean things will even out. You have proof that it won't? Teams underpreform their pythagorean record all the time. The measure is used to determine if teams underperform or overperform based on their RS and RA. It has no basis in reality, it's simply a nominal measure. Two teams have had a 10 game or more difference between their Pythagorean record and their real record in a season in the past 6 years. One of those had a 12 game difference, the other had an 11 game difference. Currently, the Cubs are projected to have a 34.1 game difference. That kind of difference simply cannot be sustained-in fact nothing even close can be reasonably sustained.

That's asinine. Aramis hit a freaking HR. That HR was the difference in the ball game if Lee doesn't try to steal. For the life of me, I cannot understand Cub fans. ITS NOT BAD LUCK THAT IS KEEPING THE CUBS FROM WINNING Tell me, what exactly is asinine about what I said? Asinine:" You cannot really Aramis would've hit that HR if Lee had been called safe or hadn't tried to steal at all." Aramis did hit a HR and Lee did get called out. This isn't chaos theory nor is it the butterfly effect. All we have to go on is exactly what happened. And what happend was a dumb play followed by a HR that should have been the difference in the ball game. So you are trying to argue that the catcher would've called the exact same pitch, the pitcher would've made the exact same pitch in the exact same location, and Aramis would've made the exact same swing had the attempted steal never happened? The play may have been dumb, but you can't just say that it cost us a run because Aramis hit a HR on the next pitch. It just doesn't work that way. You're the one making asinine statements. No. You are trying to argue that there would have been a different outcome in some hypothetical universe where Lee's stupid play went the other way. I'm going on what actually happened. The problem is, it very likely wouldn't have actually happened had Lee still been on base. Exactly-Aramis is up with a 1-2 count. The pitch that a pitcher throws with 1 out and Lee on 2nd is completely different from the pitch that he throws with 2 outs and nobody on. For one, he is much more willing to waste a couple of pitches and risk walking Ramirez in the first scenario then in the second one, and so the pitcher is going to throw more strikes that could possibly be driven with nobody on.

The Brewers have scored 4 or fewer in 9 of their 19 games and they're on top of the division. They're also 7-3 in games decided by 2 runs or less. And to continue on that, the Astros have scored 4 or less in 10 of their 18 Cincy in 11 of 19 St. Louis in 15 of 18 Pittsburgh in 10 of 17 And a few from the NL West: LA-9 of 19 games San Diego-12 of 19 San Francisco-11 of 17 Arizona-12 out of 20 The Cubs percentage of scoring 4 runs or less is neither unique or particularly indicative of their terrible record.

And that black hole that is Cedeno/Izturis isn't? At least one can reasonably expect that the offensive production from the OF is going to pick up. The same can't be said for Izturis or Cedeno. Well, you have to expect Izturis/Cedeno to pick it up-how much so is questionable, but given more time they'd probably add 100 OPS points each-an improvement, but they'd still be a black hole at that level.

You'd rather have Floyd than Jones in RF? A Soriano, Pie, and Jones OF would be fine with me for now. Eventually I'd envision Soriano, Pie, and Murton in the OF. I think he meant the fact that Floyd started the game in RF last night. If they are willing to have the defensive problems of Floyd in RF at least occasionally, then they should also be willing to try to have the possible defensive problems of Theriot at SS. I would agree completely with that logic-if they are willing to try all these strange combinations, then they should be willing to try Theriot at SS, at least for a while. Right now the only thing the two SS's are giving you is the occasional power hit by Cedeno, and the walks by Izturis.