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Elrhino

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Everything posted by Elrhino

  1. Elrhino
    The natural counterpoint is to point to the Samardzija and Heyward trades. 1 year of a 3-4 win player(potentially more in Heyward's case), even one with great talent and still in his prime, does not fetch an enormous return. I realize Heyward is well thought of around here, but I guess I see Upton as more powerful and consistently productive at the plate. That said, perhaps I am wrong on what "the market" (Giants and others) may be offering for him. FWIW, 2015 Steamer Projections - Upton - 3.1 WAR Heyward - 5.0 WAR I would be more inclined to overpay for a 1 year rental like Upton if he had elite tools that really addressed the holes in our current projected roster, but his contact and strikeout rates are not really not impressive. The Cubs shouldn't have any problems with finding righthanded power with the current projected lineup, particularly once Bryant is called up.
  2. Elrhino
    He's also below Jason Heyward, so I don't know why he should cost more to acquire.
  3. Elrhino
    I wouldn't give more than Almora for a 1 year rental unless we're talking some sort of major superstar 6-7+ WAR player. I'm assuming Upton's chances of resigning are essentially zilch even if we could somehow talk him into waiving the NTC.
  4. Elrhino
    If Cubs are chasing another starter, I think they're the type of franchise positioned to take a flier Brett Anderson gamble. They don't have to depend on him. They have salary to burn for the next couple of years if they have to eat the contract, and a ton of candidates to eat innings in the back of the rotation. The potential payoff is a TOR pitcher. I think McCarthy is going to get paid a lot of money as the Lester/Scherzer consolation prize by the Giants, Tigers or Red Sox.
  5. Elrhino
    Friedman is probably the biggest pitch framing fanatic in the game. He's been trotting out the zombie corpse of Jose Molina for the last 3 years in Tampa. I doubt he values Welly very highly.
  6. Elrhino
    In a world where there are less than 500 prospects rated as very good This. Come on guys, Mejia is a nice piece to have but it's not much to give up for a significant upgrade. This platoon is going to be very good. I feel much better about doing this trade than I would have been giving 4years+/$60M+ to Martin. Exactly. And Schwarber is racing towards the bigs. Its not unreasonable to think he will be at AAA by July and Wrigley by April 2016. Theo has gone on record saying catchers need longer to develop in the minors and even when they break into the majors they should break in gradually learning under a mentor. He spent most of his first season in the farm system playing OF and DH. I expect him to spend the entire 2015 season in AA working on his catching, even if his bat outclasses the level.
  7. Elrhino
    That's my preference as well. Posted in other thread, but I will put it here also since its where the traffic is: Baez, Alcantara, Edwards and a high-ceiling Low A or Rookie level guy for Upton. Too much or too little? People keep forgetting he has the Cubs on his limited 5 team no trade list. Maybe he would waive it, but he did update his list just this offseason and still has the Cubs on it. And he's already utilized his NTC to nix a trade to the Mariners previously, so it's not just lip service.
  8. Elrhino
    If we're rostering a offensively crappy veteranny veteran to tell fart jokes in the clubhouse, relegating it to the backup catcher is about as harmless as any role. Especially one that's made Lester's inside cutter unhittable to right handers. No need for Gomes. CarGo and Soler are playing 162.
  9. Elrhino
    It has to be frustrating for all the 2nd and 3rd tier free agent pitchers putting their lives on hold waiting for Lester to set the market.
  10. Elrhino
    I've started drinking either to celebrate or kill the pain. In other words, it's Tuesday.
  11. Elrhino
    Hearing about all this incredible value Mejia has really makes me want to start shopping some more rookie and low A arms for major league talent ASAP. Can't wait to see the haul we could get for Trevor Clifton.
  12. Elrhino
    Of course it's not irrelevant. Someone who argues a catcher makes a 5 win difference in pitch framing alone is. I like our FO too much to believe they knowingly ran the relative Jake Fox out there behind the plate the last 3 years. They're going to knowingly run Javy out there, that doesn't mean they don't put any stock in the value of OBP.
  13. Elrhino
    True, and imo it's been true for awhile. Pretty much.
  14. Elrhino
    When the same group of catchers are generally always towards the top of the league in "it" and some are always at the bottom from year to year, it generally seems to be under their control. And given that there was a .282 OPS difference between MLB hitters hitting with a 1-2 count and a 2-1 count last season, I would be more likely to believe a great pitch framer could have a 50 run impact than believing in catcher fWAR.
  15. Elrhino
    It's obvious that the Cubs simply don't want Welly handling their pitchers (they also probably think he's overdue for a BABIP regression). So you don't want Ross , what offensive terror behind the plate are you getting as the backup right handed catcher to pair with Montero?
  16. Elrhino
    Pretty much what Friedman and Maddon had accepted for 162 games for the last 3 years with the Rays. You can get away with a black hole at catcher in the AL with the DH. Sure, as long as the opponent you're competing against is also punting a position it evens out. Otherwise it's still an offensive disadvantage you're willing to concede.
  17. Elrhino
    Pretty much what Friedman and Maddon had accepted for 162 games for the last 3 years with the Rays.
  18. Elrhino
    Cubs are on Upton's no trade list.
  19. Elrhino
    Not to mention that Ross as Lester's caddy sorta neuters the idea of playing platoon advantage with his games. I'll have to think some more about how Castillo could have to be part of that 'big bat'. Who would want Castillo that has a good OF to give up? Washington? Dodgers? Rockies? If Cubs have no qualms taking on salary, Rangers for Choo? Lefty OBP. You don't even have to put together pieces that specifically fit Texas, because they're probably looking for Justin Upton ammo.
  20. Elrhino
    Good sign. Ross is going wherever Lester is going. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jon-lesters-favorite-teammate/ http://www.overthemonster.com/2014/5/9/5698872/jon-lester-david-ross-red-sox http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20140503-rapport-between-jon-lester-and-david-ross-evident-yet-again.ece
  21. Elrhino
    I could see the Rangers coveting Welly. It's a high priority position for them (Jon Daniels said they need to starting caliber catchers to play in the Texas heat). They don't have a ton of money to spend, they don't seem to value pitch framing much and they don't want to commit large resources to one with Alfaro coming down the pike. Daniels also called the catcher free agent market "lousy".
  22. Elrhino
    Yeah, seems like the MLB couldn't get it straightened out either.
  23. Elrhino
    I expect Cubs to sign David Ross to be Lester's personal catcher, RH platoon and veteranny veteran, while Welly is traded to a backwater front office full of pitch framing troglodytes.
  24. Elrhino
    We didn't.
  25. Elrhino
    conversely...if he wasn't worth 3/40 we wouldn't reportedly be offering players on top of offering to pay his contract obligations Then I guess it really just depends on which front office one trusts to quantify player value between Theo or Tony LaRussa.
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