toonsterwu

He's not as good defensively (that isn't to say he can't play defense well at 2B or SS) but he can get on base a lot better than Barney and is more athletic/faster. I'd rather have Watkins than Barney as a backup middle infielder. What about as a starter? I'm guessing ideally, neither is a starter....but do you think Watkins could be a league average starter at 2B? Potentially ... yes. He's not there yet, but the tools and the hot streaks he has offensively seems to suggest that he could be at least league average, if not better. Now, I don't expect him to be as good as his hot streaks, but if he can improve on his offensive cold spells, and the hot streaks certainly offer an argument that the potential for that is there, then sure. Best bet is still an up-the-middle utility guy, able to play both MI spots, and play the OF, but it's certainly plausible that he becomes a solid starting 2nd option that hits at the top of the lineup.

I'd like to see Burke up first, but if there's a pecking order, I think Francescon should go first. He's carried a full-load longer, and is older.

Honestly, there's a lot of guys that I'd like to protect, but there's only one that I think needs to be protected as of now, and that's Brett Jackson. I'm a fan of Rhee, but let's see how he is at the end of the season. Same with Whitenack - dominating XST options is nice, let's make sure he can dominate upper level guys as well. I guess, if I tiered it, as of now Tier 1 - Must Protect Brett Jackson Tier 2 - Would like to protect, but let's wait and see (random order) Trey McNutt Dae-Eun Rhee Robert Whitenack Tier 3 - If we can, it would be nice to protect, but let's wait and see (random order) Logan Watkins (upper level positional depth that can spot in the big leagues as a utility guy) Marcus Hatley (one of the few guys, IMO, with late inning ability) A lefty (Rusin/Raley/Antigua) An upside arm (Rosario/Peralta, others) ____ I could see a guy like Starling Peralta emerge into a must-protect ... or be unprotected because he's just a raw arm that's not polished enough. Same goes for Jose Rosario. I've long been on the Struck wagon, but like Rusin/Raley, it's hard to justify protecting end of the rotation arms unless you have a dozen free spots (and even then, it's still hard). With Rusin/Raley, you have the additional case that they could be pen lefties, so I could understand squeezing one of them in, but if you squeeze one of them in because of their pen lefty potential, then isn't Antigua more valuable, as his pen potential is arguably higher. ____ Considering the focal point is on who should have 40 man spots, Kyler Burke should be in the discussion. I'd slate him in with my tier 3 right now. A lot of things can change though. Say, McNutt moves to the pen (unfortunately, an increasingly likely scenario). If he does well, it would remove some need to protect Hatley, unless Hatley is simply lights out dominant. It's also possible that a guy like Chris Rusin finds his way to the big leagues before the end of the season, making it a potential question of should he stay on the 40.

I'm not so sure it's clearcut that you go for talent in a Soriano deal. I might be inclined to agree with davell and that money saved might be more important. Now, if it's say, a minimal saving, that might not make a difference, then okay. But a lot depends on what the club chooses to do. Any talent we get for Soriano isn't likely to be a key factor anytime soon (if at all). If the club signs down Garza, that somewhat accelerates the timeline, and it'd be a shame to waste Garza/Samardzija's prime years without giving them some more support. A million or two may not be much overall, but it could perhaps help add a key pen arm. Granted, any savings on Soriano isn't going to be critical to any prime free agent pursuits, but it could help fill out the team.

Probably because they didn't have any established players they could build around. That's definitely true. ______ As an aside, if the Cubs give Garza an extension and hold onto Samardzija, a very likely scenario, then they better spend this off-season. One can understand the dynamics this year and the lack of support our starting pitching has often had, It's painful to look at a team batting line of .239/.302/.361 and the poor pen numbers, but it was understandable because it was a rebuilding year. If they keep both pitchers, then you can't waste their top years, so that means going out and finding one or two bats (depending on how things go, that said, ideally, one top of the order bat, one middle of the order bat) and some pen help. As noted earlier, I think you can live with the rotation as is and still feel okay with it (although ideally, you'd add someone to it).

So ... let's play this out. Again, just offering a viewpoint. Shark is 27 right now. Let's say he has a longer than normal prime age-range on account of a lack of usage (and that's a debatable notion in some respects, but not the purpose here). Say, you believe that. He'll be in his age 28 year next year. You'll have your young chips up. For better or worse, we aren't going to go after 1st/CF in all likelihood. So, you'll look to add, what, a corner OF? The team still needs a top of the order bat, and as you note, we probably still need another arm in the rotation. It'd be stunning if we didn't add a pen arm or two this winter. Barring a wholesale spending spree, it's fair to say, IMO, that, the combination of youth at some positional spots and needing to overhaul the personnel will make it difficult for us to be, on paper, legitimate contenders entering 2013. In short, tough to see the "window" being open to start 2013. He'll be age 29 in 2014. The team can spend, but at this point, we'd have to start anticipating some regression from Garza (if it hasn't happened already). Maybe he pulls it out another year, maybe not. I've said since this past winter that I thought 2014 was the most realistic year that our window would start. But ... the chances of being a contender in Year 1 of our window is debatable at this ridiculously early juncture (I acknowledge that this is really way too early to fathom a guess on things like that, but also note that teams have to do some sort of game-planning, if not directly like this, something similar, to understand where they might need to allocate resources). We'd need Rizzo/Jackson to be quality players, to have addressed our main needs, and to have the flexibility to perhaps add another arm if Garza shows some signs of regressing a bit. Considering the volatile nature of pen arms, it's not inconceivable that we might be needing another guy or two. Again, flukes can happen, but I think a lot would have to go right. So, we're looking at his age 30 season in 2015. A lot of things have to go right for us to be an on-paper contender entering 2015, but let's assume they do. Even if you are generous in extending his prime-age range to suggest that he could say, last till 33-34 on his prime, it's still not many years left. Enough to justify an extension in 2012 or 2013 for say, 3-4 years? Probably (I doubt they'd give him a 5 or more year extension, but I could be wrong). But that would mean that we're looking at Shark in the final year or two of his deal by 2015. Let's take a step back. Say, Samardzija is dominating. Dealing Garza and Samardzija could potentially net us a boatload of talent. Let's assume we get 2-3 key young pitchers to develop. You have these guys coming up with Rizzo/Jackson, on a similar timeline. Instead of having to spend to fill holes, the front office would be allowed the opportunity to search for critical pieces. It takes us back another year or two, but it might be worthwhile. Look, I'm not saying deal Samardzija. I'm saying that I think all things should be on the table as we ponder the future. I'm very open to the idea that Shark gets an extension, even if he isn't dominating like he is right now, and is more of a mid-rotation arm. All this is discussion was predicated on what is still a big IF as of now - Samardzija dominating. But ... now that we are on a full-rebuild mode, I don't think we can assume that things will definitely go right, that we will land a key big bat, a key top of the order option, another arm, some bullpen help, and build a contender that fast. Not impossible, and I hope we can, but it's tough to imagine that the front office isn't playing all the scenarios out in their minds, as there are definitely examples of teams that went into rebuild that took a long time to find their balance, even with quality prospects (and some don't ever find it in the time they expect).

Aramis isn't hitting very well either (though still better than Stewart) so I doubt that would have made much of a difference. Also, you mentioning Cashner prompted me to look up his stats. He's got a 3.68 ERA but a 1.705 WHIP. He's had no control as he's averaging 8 BB/9. Sure, but that's assuming that they would've gotten off to similar starts here. Once you change one thing, you change everything. That said, tis a hypothetical that has no meaning since it doesn't matter.

Valbuena has always done well in AAA. I'd really like to see him get a shot at the 2nd base job, but since Cardenas was on the 40, it's understandable that he got called up first. Valbuena, at worst, can be the utility infielder. He's not good at short, but he can handle it if it's needed, and he offers a lot more than Darwin Barney.

Wanted to voice a few thoughts that somewhat tie in with Garza 1. There definitely have been moments, however brief, this year where I've wondered where this team would be with ... say Aramis Ramirez and Andrew Cashner. That said, I thought the decision to rebuild was fine last year, and I still think it's fine. 2. I once said that I thought Garza pitching well would make a Garza decision that much tougher. What I didn't anticipate, and really, who did, was Samardzija pitching so well. It's too early to make a long-term determination on Samardzija's long term capabilities as a starter, but it could definitely impact the Garza decision this summer a) On the one hand, if Samardzija is pitching well, a Garza/Shark tandem, plus a mid-rotation arm and, say Dempster, could be a very good rotation. It would give the Cubs a lot of flexibility to pursue bats first, rather than chasing at the top tier arms. You'd still have Maholm as a possible candidate to shop this summer. Heck, to be honest, if Shark is pitching that well at mid-season, you could keep the same rotation and likely still have feel comfortable about the rotation entering 2013. b) On the other hand, does Shark pitching well make it easier to deal Garza? Because the original calculus that a lot of us had was that we needed to add another TOR type arm to Garza. If Shark is pitching like TOR starter, maybe they feel that it's money in the bank and they should stock up on young talent with a Garza trade. c) I doubt it, but I don't think there's been that much discussion on whether or not Shark should be traded if he's pitching well this summer. Yet, why not? If part of the math on Garza is that he might be at the end of his prime when we're ready to be title contenders, well, Shark is only a year and change younger, and would likely bring in a stellar package if he's still dominating this summer. _____ A lot really depends on whatever internal roadmap the FO has on their board in regards to when they can compete. When I look at the combination of the age of our SP's now and where our young talent is in their development, I often question the timing of things. Maybe we get lucky, and Jackson/Rizzo both pan out, with a surprise from say, Cardenas or Valbuena becoming a solid regular. The chances are still high, though, that all three might not reach the ceilings that are hoped for, and if that's the case, can the Cubs find enough offense in FA? Because it's hard to imagine the Cubs being able to complete a big trade, assuming Rizzo/Jackson are off limits, unless they put in Baez and some other top chips, guys we are all hoping on. I started off about 50/50 on dealing Garza, but with the way Garza is throwing this year, and the number of teams needing quality starters (if Baltimore stays in it, that's a team that could use an elite starter ... granted, they could use another bat as well), it's hard to imagine that we can't get a very quality package for him, and I think I'm leaning more towards dealing Garza as of now. So, to actually have a comment that ties in with the thread title, if Garza keeps dominating similar to what he's done so far this year, I think you have to right to demand 2 quality upper level prospects (or a legitimately elite chip) in a package, and at least a full season lottery ticket in the A ball ranks. Maybe that's shooting for the moon, but there's so few dominant pitchers available, if Garza keeps dominating, I see no reason why we shouldn't ask for that. That's obviously not locked in stone (I wouldn't say no to quality A+ guys, but the rest of the package would have to be better).

My guess is Whitenack does head to Daytona first, but that he'll go up to Tennessee sooner than later, and they'll find a way to give him a rotation spot, either with a call-up (Raley) or someone being moved out of the rotation (McNutt?).

I was never as high on Torreyes as some here were, but I do fully expect him to start making some contact soon, enough to get some chatter going about his ability again. That said, it's been nice to have the Arismendy breakout at the same time. Was looking into Arismendy's numbers a bit more, and realized that his K% is down, and his BB% is up during this run. A lesson learned?

If he maintains this level of performance for an extended period, while showing improved discipline/approach, then I'll buy it as more than just a hot streak. His development reminds me a bit of Marwin Gonzalez - toolsy, talented athletic kids who needed time to develop some offense. Talent wise, he might be the most talented shortstop, in terms of defense, in the system. There's a decent case for it (although to be fair, he's a work in progress defensively ... the errors have been piling up like crap this year). Okay, so we're on the same page. He's got to keep this up for another couple months with improved discipline and we can put him into the possible breakout list. I think he can regress a little with the SLG and the stolen bases and still be a candidate for a breakout prospect. I'm always looking for that guy. McNutt, Whitenack, and...who will it be this year? That's the most intriguing part about player development for me. The guy who most people don't see coming. BTW, after tonight, Alcantara's OPS is .799 and he's stolen 8 bases without being caught. His SLG could collapse and as long as he's showing improved discipline/approach, I'd be fine with whatever season he had. Right now, I still say the only real "breakout" on this season has been Rubi Silva (and that's a pretty fringy breakout, partly because he was always thought to have the tools to do well offensively). That said, as I was discussing on Sickels site with someone, the system hasn't had many breakouts ... but it also hasn't had many big disappointments.

I'd cringe if that's our pen. Much as I love following our prospects, I seriously hope that is not our entire pen at some point in the near future.

Very nice to see Marco and Taiwan hitting ... would love to see them slide Marco up in the order a bit.

Jokisch's ceiling is probably an end of the rotation lefty. "Another" bad day for Struck? By my count, it's his 2nd bad start this season. Rest have been decent to solid.

If he maintains this level of performance for an extended period, while showing improved discipline/approach, then I'll buy it as more than just a hot streak. His development reminds me a bit of Marwin Gonzalez - toolsy, talented athletic kids who needed time to develop some offense. Talent wise, he might be the most talented shortstop, in terms of defense, in the system. There's a decent case for it (although to be fair, he's a work in progress defensively ... the errors have been piling up like crap this year).

From this week's chat

It could be a sign of change for Jay, but it could also be a side effect of all the shuffling that went on with the rotation, because of call-ups and demotions, in the past week. We probably have to wait one cycle through the rotation to really know.

Hmm ... looks like Wells isn't piggybacking tonight. Edit: So Wells came in in the 6th. Maybe that's when they were planning on him coming in, and decided to have Cruz bridge it. Well ... Concepcion only gave up 2 runs. I guess that's a plus. Then again, he walked 5 in 4 innings. Baby steps, or something like that. Marco with a couple hits and a double. The strikeouts are still there (1 tonight), but sure feels like he's turned the corner a tiny bit. Hoilman continues his hit streak. Daytona lost, but Szczur, Torreyes, Alcantara, Silva all had a hit. Dae-Eun Rhee with a superb outing through 7.2. Very, very nice to see, although I hadn't been bothered by his start to the year.

Hey Nate, Should fans feel ... confident about Taiwan and Marco's improved hitting of late? Is it fair to wonder if Marco was pressing for a period there? Also, if Wells is piggybacking off Concepcion, does that mean Burke is going to stay as a "full load" guy with Francescon/Rosario/Jensen?

So, in Callis' chat, he keeps hinting that Appel/Gausman/Zimmer/Buxton/Zunino are the likely top 5. If that's who goes, and we're up, I'm thinking Correa should be the pick there unless Giolito is healthy (and heck, a healthy Giolito could force one of the top 5 to fall). Callis said that his first mock will have Appel go 1-1. As intriguing as Fried seems to be, I'm not sure he should go ahead of Correa's bat upside. Surprised Callis has Appel 1-1 as of now.

Any chance of him seeing Daytona soon or even Tennessee by the end of the season? Jones has been awful, Bour hasn't been much better and Rohan has been serviceable but is the embodiment of organizational filler. I'm not ready to start thinking that Hoilman is that much better than those guys, particularly Rohan. .417 BABIP and a near 30% strikeout rate. It might be surprising, but Rohan has a top 20 OPS in the FSL this year, in terms of qualified players, due to his SLG percentage being in the top 15. He's at least a guy that you can plug in at 3rd for system use, and probably dashes in the corner OF if necessary, and he shows a better approach at the plate than Hoilman. Not sure what's up with Bour, although he didn't exactly dominate FSL after his hot start last year, and more importantly, Ridling, who actually put together a solid season in AA, but is struggling a ton this year, and his BABIP doesn't explain the lack of power.

If gameday is correct, Kyler Burke is mowing through that Beloit lineup, as it shows him 6 up, 6 down, 1 3 pitch strikeout ... 5 first pitch swinging outs?!?! So ... 8 pitches, 6 outs? I'd question gameday on that, but they did show 3 pitches on the strikeout. Edit: So, is this a continuation of the MiLB boxscore issues this year? Because they have Gruver as 3 pitches, 3 outs. Are they only showing 1 pitch for any non-K, and 3 for any K? Otherwise, that's a pretty batty game so far. Edit 2: Okay, seems clear that this is a continuation of the boxscore issues that MiLB has been having this year with the low minors. Thought they might've been more on the ball with things since it was on gameday, but guess not. 4 hit so far, but nothing to show for it for Peoria. At least Marco Hernandez got a hit, so most of our guys on hot streaks have continued their offensive performance tonight.

A mild defense of Cates is that, I believe, all 6 hits were singles. Still ... brutal. Alcantara with a hit so far, continuing his run, and Easterling with a double, continuing his run. Mildly nice thing today is that the Peoria game has gameday.

Well, Tennessee lost again. Beeler was hit around: 4.2 ip, 8 h, 2 bb, 3 R, 2 K, 7:2 GO/FO. Only 2 XBH's though. Logan Watkins 3/4, 1 2B, 1 K, SB. He's hitting quite well of late (last 10: .325/.400/.475), but 13 K's in 40 AB's over this stretch. Other than Watkins, only other person with a hit was Burgess. Here's hoping the evening goes better.