He has shown in the past that the short leash is somewhat justified, but I think the shortness of that short leash is sometimes overdone. Once could argue that playing conservative with enough of his starts is a big reason as to his success.
I don't really get why it would be a "must win" game for them. Even if the Cardinals were to lose tonight and Monday, it is still completely within the realm of possibility for them to win games 4 and 5. Yeah. We've hit Lynn well but we don't even know who we're starting in Game 4 and Lackey would pitch Game 5. It's not like we'll have Jake starting Game 5. I just figured it was a given they'd go with Lester, especially if they're up 2-1.