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Sammy Sofa

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Everything posted by Sammy Sofa

  1. Sammy Sofa
    Tons of factors. Age, bench players, injuries, etc... Also worth noting is that Defensive Efficiency is simply the reverse of batting average on balls in play. It just keeps track of whether or not the play was made... not whether it should have been made. So it is possible the opposing teams had a disproportionate number of times where they simply managed to "hit em where they aint," so to speak. I would caution against chalking the whole thing up to bad luck though, we've definitely gotten a bit worse in the field the last few years. UZR would take into account the factors listed in your first line. It would also taken into account whether we've gotten worse in the field from '09 to '10. I'm aware. I was just responding to (what I interpreted to be) mojo asking how our defensive efficiency could have tanked so quickly. Now that I'm rereading it, it seems he's wondering about the discrepancy between UZR and DE. Both, actually. I'm genuinely curious.
  2. Sammy Sofa
    Yeah, this is really surprising. I wouldn't have been surprise to see a continuing decline, but that drop is insane. You had Byrd taking over in CF, which is a plus. You had Fukudome moving back to RF which is a plus. Is it the number of errors? it may be. aren't we tops in both unearned runs and errors? i have no idea what happened to the defense either. but it has become an issue that needs to be fixed. The errors seem to be the issue, but is it really something that can or should be "fixed?" If you end up looking to fix defense uber alles you tend to end up with some really underwhelming offense. It seems a ton of it can be attributed to to Aramis and Castro and Theriot. Aramis is definitely having an off year, and it seems to be a pretty safe bet that Castro will improve plus Theriot is gone, so there doesn't really seem to be a pressing need to "fix" the defense over the offense.
  3. Sammy Sofa
    PROVE COMMON SENSE RIGHT.
  4. Sammy Sofa
    I guess I'm just very confused then. What would typically account for such significant variation?
  5. Sammy Sofa
    If I had to bet, I'd say nowhere near as poorly as you think. PROVE HIM WRONG.
  6. Sammy Sofa
    Yeah, this is really surprising. I wouldn't have been surprise to see a continuing decline, but that drop is insane. You had Byrd taking over in CF, which is a plus. You had Fukudome moving back to RF which is a plus. Is it the number of errors?
  7. Sammy Sofa
    That strikes me as some bizarre fluctuation. You see a trend, and then suddenly everything plummets like that? Why?
  8. Sammy Sofa
    I have no idea.
  9. Sammy Sofa
    I don't agree at all that "fixing" the defense is a higher priority than addressing the team's offensive needs.
  10. Sammy Sofa
    You realize you can still have a very productive offensive player who strikes out a lot, right?
  11. Sammy Sofa
    Actually, do we know what Nady can do with consistent starts at a position like 1B as he gets further away from his surgery?
  12. Sammy Sofa
    Good points. I think my trepidation comes exactly from when you talked about what a smart organization does and then realizing we're dealing with the Cubs here. I'd love it if this ultimately ends up being a sign that they're being smarter than they've been in recent years. My concern stems from how Colvin has become such a fan favorite and is continually being lumped in with the "youth movement."
  13. Sammy Sofa
    Well, if they're going to pursue the option of him being a starting RF then he still needs more time out there. It's a catch-22 because I doubt this would even come up if he was a lock-down defender out there, but he's not, and RF at Wrigley is obviously a tough position to hold over the course of a season. If they're even considering him being the starter out there they need to focus on him getting playing time there instead of 1B.
  14. Sammy Sofa
    Does it really matter if he's a starter or not next year? I don't think signing 32 year old Adam Dunn to a longish contract so we don't have to tolerate Colvin at 1st is in the teams long term best interest. Dunn/Pena/other FA 1B won't make enough of a difference next year anyway. Dunn won't turn 32 until the end of the 2011 season. And Dunn or a re-surged Pena would likely be a huge difference over Colvin.
  15. Sammy Sofa
    Wow, Holy overreaction batman. After Nady on the team right now, who else can play 1B? Shouldnt they prepare some semblence of a backup option? I don't care if it's a "backup option." When you're on to your backup 1B for any sustained period of time you're in trouble regardless of who it is. I care if they're even considering making him the starting 1B next season.
  16. Sammy Sofa
    Because I'm playing devil's advocate where they start 2011 with Colvin as the starting 1B, and that's no good for anyone. And how does this "add to his versatility" or "increase his trade value?" 1B is where teams dump players who can't cut it defensively anywhere else.
  17. Sammy Sofa
    They'd still be negotiating from a "weak position" even if he played every single game at 1B for the rest of the season. Unless he's some kind of Dunn-in-the-making this could be a very, very bad sign.
  18. Sammy Sofa
    http://jemima.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/jk_bangheadwall.jpg [expletive], 2011 is going to suuuuuuuuck.
  19. Sammy Sofa
    Oh, good. The meatheads have already turned on Cashner. Welp, he's doomed.
  20. Sammy Sofa
    He's not horrible in the OF. I've seen him play horribly many many times and make very few catches that were not routine. On a scale from 1-10(10 being the best) he would come in around a 4 IMO and he is only that high b/c he has a great arm. He is better than Dunn out there but is well below average. You're not basing this on anything except what you think you've seen? What I think I've seen???? He does not go come in, go back, or go to his right well. He does cover a decent amount of ground to his left - not as much as he should with his speed though. I'm just letting you clarify what you're measuring his defensive capabilities by.
  21. Sammy Sofa
    He's not horrible in the OF. I've seen him play horribly many many times and make very few catches that were not routine. On a scale from 1-10(10 being the best) he would come in around a 4 IMO and he is only that high b/c he has a great arm. He is better than Dunn out there but is well below average. You're not basing this on anything except what you think you've seen?
  22. Sammy Sofa
    He's not horrible in the OF.
  23. Sammy Sofa
    Yes, those are the only two options.
  24. Sammy Sofa
    Did you look at his A ball numbers? They weren't terrible, but they weren't good. In low A. The only thing going for him is that he's 19. It's ok, I'm not saying it was a bad trade or anything like that. He's a very intriguing guy. Stats aren't the best thing to judge kids of that age on. Go look at Chris Archer's stats before we acquired him from Cleveland. We got a kid with solid upside here and the more I read, the better I think we did on this one. Especially with the record of success the Cubs have with pitching prospects.
  25. Sammy Sofa
    Did you look at his A ball numbers? They weren't terrible, but they weren't good. In low A. The only thing going for him is that he's 19. Only being 19 is pretty huge.
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