Sammy Sofa
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Everything posted by Sammy Sofa
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So he's saying the deal being mentioned has the Bulls giving up Taj, Mitotic and a first rounder for Gasol? Surely Garpax can't be so stupid. Not only that, but just saying Mirotic should be "untouchable" is [expletive] laughable.
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Well, to be blunt, you probably have to more often than you'd like to when your team stinks. -
Where's that crying Batman gif? Someone slap a Cubs' "C" on his mask and lets make that a thing.
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Yes, his May stats are inflated by how he was still good at the beginning of the month and then fell off a cliff in the second half. Look, I think Rizzo is likely going to beat up on the .796 production out of 1B last year and you don't. It's really that simple.
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The 2012 Offseason Thread
Sammy Sofa replied to ctcf's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Jesus [expletive] Christ, don't tell me these things. -
LaHair's May stats are inflated by the carryover of how hot he was in April; he fell off pretty dramatically the last couple of weeks or so to really drag his numbers down. Far more importantly and relevant to this debate, Rizzo's average stats have a good chance of improve due to his talent and that he's still a developing player. It's faulty to approach his 2012 numbers like they're necessarily indicative of the player he'll be. I don't think it's a stretch to think he could be a .850+ OPS player next year.
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Right. Basically it's that, coupled with Rizzo being a much better ballplayer. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him have a breakout year. I don't think he's going to annhilate last year's 1B production, but I don't think it's a stretch at all to think it's likely he surpasses it. neely's projections seem to just be working off of the idea that Rizzo will simply put up numbers comparable to last season extrapolated to a full season, as if he's not going to develop and improve.
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I'm not dismissing it. He basically has one month of amazing performance (about the first 6-7 weeks of the season of relatively consecutive quality performance); I think a full year of Rizzo at first will contribute to more Cubs wins (offensively and defensively) than the Frankenstein's monster they had out there last year.
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But aren't the stats saying that while LaHair and Rizzo's stats can be, in total, seen as similar, Rizzo was the more valuable player? In that he actually contributed to more wins than LaHair with his offense and defense? I know that's overly simplistc, but everything (and I'm just using BR today) seems to be weighing productive value much more heavily in favor of Rizzo.
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I honestly have no clue whether I "want" to hear that or not; I don't understand what you're saying.
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I honestly am having trouble reading that post and I'm not sure what you're saying. You seem to be defending LaHair? Attacking people's projections of Rizzo being likely to surpass LaHair's value/production from 2011? Again, you're talking about a guy who managed a whopping 0.1 WAR vs. a guy who is projected to give the Cubs a 4-5 WAR value. I'd pick Rizzo every time over LaHair and not even think about it twice.
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This. Depending on where you are on the win spectrum, it's actually beneficial to have the less consistent team. There is more potential upside variance. A team projected to win 92 games wants less variance, but a team projected to win 85 loves the variance. It's not as simple as "consistent = better" because that's just not true. It's not a bad idea to build your team to have a mix of each type of player. People. Pay attention to this post. Masterfully said. Well, yeah, who was saying you should or could build a team of only the hypothetically consistent Rizzo vs. someone streakier like Soriano? This tangent was born out of the idea of whether Rizzo's projected output would be more valuable than 6 weeks of great/good LaHair, and I think it's safe to choose the former. We're talking an extreme and extremely limited type of "streak" here. I think he's getting at the fact that you were wrong for saying that "consistent > inconsistent" is basically a known fact and that you would be crazy to think otherwise. You can make an argument for either approach. I prefer the former, especially in this particular example.
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Rizzo's second month was much, much better than LaHair's second month.
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If only there were ways to actually determine which player brought more value to the Cubs last year than just declaring them to be a "wash"...
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This. Depending on where you are on the win spectrum, it's actually beneficial to have the less consistent team. There is more potential upside variance. A team projected to win 92 games wants less variance, but a team projected to win 85 loves the variance. It's not as simple as "consistent = better" because that's just not true. It's not a bad idea to build your team to have a mix of each type of player. People. Pay attention to this post. Masterfully said. Well, yeah, who was saying you should or could build a team of only the hypothetically consistent Rizzo vs. someone streakier like Soriano? This tangent was born out of the idea of whether Rizzo's projected output would be more valuable than 6 weeks of great/good LaHair, and I think it's safe to choose the former. We're talking an extreme and extremely limited type of "streak" here.
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Amazingly bad analogy.
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LaHair had A hot streak.
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You should be.
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No, this is simply wrong. And you ideally can basically count on Rizzo to exceed LaHair's production; LaHair was THAT bad.
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Because his early production is skewed by these monster games in a relatively small period; it's not like the Cubs get to win any of those wins twice. Then, pretty quickly, he became a liability and a hole in the lineup. How would a guy consistently hitting well throughout the year not be more valuable in terms of trying to win more games over the course of the season? LaHair was a 0.1 WAR player last year, and Rizzo ideally projects to be about 4-5, right?
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LaHair hit out of his mind in April. He managed an insane 1.251 OPS before plummeting to .792 in May and not getting above .700 again until September. Yeah, his first half OPS is .883, but it's clearly hugely skewed. Rizzo ideally hitting much more consistently each month is much more valuable over the course of the season than LaHair's 2011, so let's stop with the "oh, their first halves will probably even out at best;" LaHair was a fat load by some point in May, and it's not like his games in April double-counted or something.
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Who is the #10 prospect (Run-Off)?
Sammy Sofa replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
[expletive], I thought it was WSR. -
Week 15 Green Bay @ Lovie's Chokers (No GB Fans Allowed)
Sammy Sofa replied to UMFan83's topic in Other Sports
.... O...K? Not sure where anyone questioned his ability or anything. I'm saying it was worrisome out of genuine concern for someone who has had serious emotional issues in the past. -
Yes you do.
