craig

Given his subsequent performance, both offensively and defensively, and given how little it took to sign him, no more than if he was a college junior, it would seem Springfield wasn't a huge prospect. Regardless, I think a point regards money. Springfield was in a different position from most HS guys taken in the 7th round. Most HS picks who are good students and are on track for a major-conference opportunity, most aren't going to sign for college-junior slot or for Blair Springfield slot. If you're going to draft a D1-bound HS player in rounds 6 or 7, as with DeJesus and Wells, 90% of the time you know they aren't going to sign for college-junior "slot" money or Blair Springfield slot. Wells and DeJesus are in an entirely different demographic than Casey Lambert and Ty Wright (6th and 7th, 07), or Josh Harrison and Luis Flores (6th and 7th 08), or Springfield (7th) last year. Wells and DeJesus are in a different "slot", and will almost certainly be paid at a different "slot" if you are going to sign them. That's totally to be expected. The "slot" for good HS players who are big-college bound is just a totally different and higher slot. If a team isn't interested in paying the normal slot for kids like that, then it wouldn't be drafting them. Just like if a team isn't interested in paying a 15th or 20th or 28th rounder at least $100, it either shouldn't draft him or else should draft only as a formality with no expectation or intention of actually signing the player. All of which is my ramble that "superslot" and "overslot" is perhaps a misnomer when you pay $250 or $300 or whatever for Wells, or $100-160 for geiger or Fitzgerald or McNutt or Struck or Burruel or Richardson. Those are normal moneys for players in their draft slots.

80% of HS players that sign in the 7th round sign for above "slot" which is heavily dictated by the cost of college picks. I'm sure Wells will sign above the overall college-influenced average. Whether he'll sign above what's typical for a HSer taken there, who knows. Of course, last year Springfield was a HS guy and he still signed for no more than college slot. Which was an almost immediate indicator that he wasn't that great of a prospect.

http://www.thewetumpkaherald.com/articles/2010/07/22/breaking_news/news01.txt Golden has agreed and will formally sign tomorrow. Rhoderick said he had basically reached an agreement a couple weeks ago. Wells I believe was pulled from his high school/legion pitching schedule because they didnt' want to risk spoiling his deal with an injury or anything.

He was a relief pitcher for only one year with TCU; prior to that he was a starter at his JC (or it may have been his CC?). As a starter, his stuff wasn't particularly impressive for whatever reason. However, TCU moved him to the bullpen and made him their closer, which worked out pretty well for him since his stuff improved dramatically. Just to add, when a JC/CC kid transfers to a major college program as a junior, it's not surprising that he wouldn't start. Typically the big programs will have a couple of established guys already on the team. since college teams don't play 7 games a week like in the minors and only need a couple of starters, it would take both a really impressive transfer pitcher as well as some vulnerability in the rotation to get a starting spot.

Jung lifted after 2 innings and one run.

cal or anybody, do you know anything about Frank Batista? Surprising to have a 2nd-year Dominican starting some games in Peoria, and doing fine. After I believe being injured or something early in the year? Weird case, if in fact he's good. Not often that 5'10" RHP are significant prospects. And not often that significant Dominicans don't begin as pros until they are 20. But last year was his first year, DSL. So to skip straight to Peoria is unusual. His ERA wasnt' notable, but his K/BB were (63K/7BB in 57 innings last year, 27K/8BB in 27 innings thus far this year.) Probably just a filler. But I was just curious whether he might be unusual in some way and perhaps have some interst/

OK, now the word is that he's had mono. That would explain not so rarely how the 21-year-old is unavailable for so long. Too bad for him, but obviously that explains everything. No need to wonder if there is something they are covering up or more wrong than they are letting on. That explains everything.

Do you know where he wrote that? Yesterday, he wrote that "Hayden Simpson has been held back just to make sure he's back to full-strength before he gets into game action." But nothing to the extent that he's throwing or actually doing anything. (http://www.thecubreporter.com/2010/07/17/2010-rule-4-draft-update#comments) I agree that it's not urgent that he pitch much or pitch at all this summer. What matters is whether he's healthy and good. If he pitched some good games this summer, I'd know he was healthy and good, and that's what I want. If he pitches well next spring, I'll know he's healthy and good then. The reason I'd like to see him this summer is selfish: it would relieve a paranoid worry that I have. When a guy pitches as much as he did this spring, with such massive pitch counts, and then pitches twice in a weekend at high velocity as witnessed by Wilken, I wonder whether his pro arm will be as good as his draft arm. So when he's on the DL, I wonder. Is his arm 100%, and he's just the rare 21-year-old stud who gets so sick that he can't play sports for a month? It's possible, if not super likely. Or is he the 21-year-old pitcher who has a sore elbow? It's possible, if not super likely. If he pitches and pitches well and we get rave reviews about how good and fast he looks, we'll know he's fine, and I'll put my paranoid side to sleep! But I'm a little nervous that he conveniently got sick and actually has a sore elbow, and that the Cubs are now just hoping it will take care of itself by next spring.

Yikes. So that's why he was a 12th round pick. Eh, the Cubs have been successful improving Archer's control. Maybe they can help Reed as well. I took that as great news - getting an electric HS arm in the 12th round is always good. Professional coaches have a much better chance of fixing mechanics than a HS coach. I agree with cal and had the same reaction. "Big, strong kid with electric stuff" for a 12th round pick is exciting. He's 18, IIRC he just switch to pitching this senior year, and that was the only of his four appearances where control has been a problem. There are lots of competitive short-season pitchers, but you never know which have "electric stuff" that will play in the majors. I think this is encouraging.

http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20100711/SPORTS07/7110328/1093/SPORTS07/Transitioning+to+the+pros I posted this in minors, but thought I'd copy it here where it fits better. A lengthy interview with Geiger. Confirms he's 3B for now. No scouting info other than that. They asked him about money, and he said he got the full college scholarship clause, but wouldn't say about what his actual signing bonus was. The interview didn't give any indication that he was any massive superslot or anything. Sounded like he was happy to go pro, that he saw the money for school as a major part of his package. So I'm guessing this is the standard $100 (or less) plus college kind of deal. Not Logan Watkins or Huseby or anything like that. " It's usually a pretty good signing bonus. What they did for me is they gave me a signing bonus up front and a full college scholarship plan. If I ever want to go back to school after we're done, I have money locked away that is strictly for school that I can touch whenever I want. The stipulation is that I have to finish up my college degree in 10 years, which is probably one of the easiest situations ever."

A lengthy interview with Geiger. Confirms he's 3B for now. No scouting info other than that. They asked him about money, and he said he got the full college scholarship clause, but wouldn't say about what his actual signing bonus was. The interview didn't give any indication that he was any massive superslot or anything. Sounded like he was happy to go pro, that he saw the money for school as a major part of his package. " It's usually a pretty good signing bonus. What they did for me is they gave me a signing bonus up front and a full college scholarship plan. If I ever want to go back to school after we're done, I have money locked away that is strictly for school that I can touch whenever I want. The stipulation is that I have to finish up my college degree in 10 years, which is probably one of the easiest situations ever." http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20100711/SPORTS07/7110328/1093/SPORTS07/Transitioning+to+the+pros

Austin Reed at 6'3", 12th round, supposedly athletic HS pitcher who I thought scouted as at least touching 90 as a 1st-year pitcher, have we gotten any bonus idea on him? Is he in the same standard $100-150 zone that covers Greathouse, Kurtz, Rhoderick, Richardson, hartman, and Fitzgerald? Or do you think he might have gotten more, perhaps significantly more? Just curious whether we should envision his pre-draft status as comparable, or whether he's perhaps viewed in a somewhat higher class? Also, I'm just assuming Richardson was standard $100-150. Do we know that, or might he have been a $250 guy for all we know? It certainly is kind of fun to have a bunch of young HS/JC picks signed and starting off fast at Mesa/Boise. The combined numbers for Reed, Fitzgerald, Kurtz, as well as Loosen and Ebinger at Mesa have been terrific. Would sure be fun if this went down as a real impact draft with a big volume of young picks who develop and change the organization. I'm just a fan, and I know that one successful 1st round pick typically trumps a batch of 10th rounders who look fine in short season but get hurt or wash out before AA. But as a farm watcher, it is fun to have numbers of guys who are young enough that I can imagine whatever I want in term of their potential excellence, and who aren't starting off haplessly enough to make them uninteresting. (Gibbs is the only pick who's working in that direction early on...) And it may be that the ability to get Simpson so cheap, a guy I honestly believe Wilken really believed in as BPA (rightly or wrongly), might be facilitating a lot of these picks. It's feasible that if the choice was between $1.0 Simpson and a HS prospect that would have required $2.2 overslot, that an extra $1.2 saved could be funding a dozen Fitzgerald/Kurtz/Reed/Richardson/Geiger signings that would otherwise have needed to be college slot picks.

On Golden, I hope we get him in, that he works out, and he proves he deserves 1st round money (whether we pay him that or not.) I'm really eager to have the Cubs somehow get some position prospects who look like with luck they might bat somewhere in the 3-6 middle if they develop as hoped. Whatever Golden is asking dollar-wise, I would assume that the Cubs did their due diligence, and drafted him with an awareness of what his bonus expectations were. If they knew he was demanding 1st round type cash and don't think he's worth it, then pick somebody else. If they picked him, I'm pretty confident they thought his money expectations were not unreasonable or beyond what they thought they'd be able/willing to pay. Hard to know for sure, of course; a team can expect a guy to back off some when push comes to shove; if the player doesn't budge or compromise at all, maybe a guy you thought you could sign ends up stonewalling you and it doesn't work out. *On Raley it's his first year, and he's had some effective games, so he's certainly still got a fair chance. *Huseby as a 22-year-old short-season DH, I've heard he's done with pitching for good, and is now hoping to go forward exclusively as a hitter. Crazy things can happen in baseball, so maybe he'll turn into Dave Kingman. But I'm guessing most organizations have at least 100 prospects each who have better big-league odds than a 22-year-old, 6'7" long-swinging DH hitting .208 with a .519 OPS in short season. Perhaps Rundel's chance as a pitcher is as good or better than Huseby's as a slugger. *Watkins has shown no indication of growing into any power (I'd hoped he'd mature into at least a little punch when we signed him), has shown no instinct for base-stealing (12B/5CS), and K's like a slugger (60K/255 AB). With a 60K/0HR ratios, he's going to need a very healthy BABIP just to hit .250. (His BABIP this year is just fine, that's what's kept him as high as .247.) I think Watkins may approach roster-fill status soon enough, and that Cerda has been starting some at 2nd lately may reflect that.

The superslot offer to Sczur got me thinking. We are always eager to pay superslot. But have we ever had a superslot who actually worked out? I'm trying to go through my list of superslot types over my memory dating back 10 or 12 years: Bobby Hill. Bobbie Brownlie. Andy Sisco: Mark Reed: Grant Johnson Samardz. Huseby Rundle Watkins Raley Seems to me our record with superslot signings, guys we got relatively late because other teams passed due to their signing demands, is not too impressive. I don't count the $100-200 type late round guys, really. $100-160 really is slot for non-juniors, no matter how late they are drafted. So I don't really see McNutt or Struck. Perhaps our most successful superslots: 1. jeff Russell, although his success is modest and his money was "over" but not really "super". 2. Samardzija, I suppose, since like Russell at least he's made the majors. But given the size of his "super" bonus, his success hasn't been that successful. 3. I don't really include Mark Prior, because picking a guy 2nd isn't exactly sliding. But I suppose one could argue he'd qualify. Dontrell Willis I think was paid $250 or something, something of a superslot. Although Hendry has said he made some kind of mistake in this, and paid him overslot in part because of some promise made or something. I can't remember. I just thought it was kind of fun to go back down memory lane, and think of some of these draft picks I was so motivated to have the Cubs sign, how glad I was when they paid some superslot to bring them in, and now to look back on how little value they provided. Funny. Hopefully Sczur will be break that mold. Also, I don't ramble this just to be snarky, or to have another "Cubs are so dumb" thread. We know the success rate with any draft pick is pretty iffy. So I'm not sure our lack of success with superslots is any reason to quit trying, or that it is particularly unusual.

Nice catch, Wrigley. So that's basically a $600 deal to play baseball, if he chooses it. That's pretty strong super-slot for a 5th rounder. Fun. I hadn't realized that he was that interesting as a baseball player. Would be cool if he worked out.

I think there's a LOT of hope as a real prospect based upon his improved play, his age and his level. However, he's still striking out way too much. He has a completely unsustainable babip propping up his numbers at this point. Agree and disagree. If doesn't work to have 57K/1HR ratios. When you whiff 30% of your AB, it's hard to be much of a prospect, especially if you don't offset that with a bundle of HR's. So it looks to first approximation that he's just a guy who doesn't have the god-given eye-brain-hitting gifts to hit fast-moving professional pitching. Most likely that won't be learned. That said, his BABIP is not at all unusual, is it? A-ball BABIP's are routinely higher than in the majors. I think Lake's is around .330 or so? That's not in any way atypical for an a-ball player who has any kind of legs, I don't think. He's up near .240 now, that's major improvement, and he's vaulted past the .600-level OPS-wise. But man, if you K all the time and just consistently miss the ball too often to hit it hard enough for HR's or XBH, it's hard to hope for too much. But, maybe he'll be the guy who does learn late. Everybody's different, so maybe he'll figure something out.

Pinckard http://www.wacotrib.com/sports/Pro-Baseball-Notebook-Time-in-independent-leagues-pays-for-Groesbeck-standout.html 'Baylor outfielder/pitcher Brooks Pinckard is still weighing his options on whether to sign with the Chicago Cubs or return to school. Pinckard said via text message this week that he is “just waiting and seeing what’s going to happen” with his contract negotiations.' Sounds like a matter of price. But doesn't sound intrisically unsignable or that he's pretty committed to *not* signing.

In going back through the draft thread, I don't see hardly anything in the thread about him, other than several people seemed to think he'd be harder to sign. But I never really did see any scouting info about him. Anybody? His high school is big, and he's in Florida. So I'd guess he faced some good competition, and that his stats aren't quite as meaningless as if you're in the Wisconsin schools with graduating classes of less than 50. If his competition is good, then his .500+ with 7 HR's, the raw numbers are much better than harvey hit (I don't think he hit .400); Montanez (he was low .400's); or somebody like Vitters (he wasn't even .400, was he?) At 6'2", Geiger might be a nice size. Not too small to have some power. I know there are plenty of taller guys who are great hitters, but my experience with the 6'3-6'5" type Cub prospect hitters is that those tall guys typically end up having more BP power than game power. The long levers-> long swings -> holes and contact problems. Maybe at 6'2" Geiger will be just a hitter. I know Wilkens has tended toward up-the-middle amateurs, figuring they can move to corner later. But that does tend to correlate guys whose attributes are foremost speed/arm/defense, and power is something you hope emerges in due time. (Which can happen, see Colvin.) But it's nice to see the Cubs getting a couple of HS kids who might, if they were to blossom as you'd wish, blossom into middle-of-the-order run producers. Jackson might. Colvin might. Not sure how good he'll be or if we'll sign him, but Golden might become a hitting RF. Geiger isn't going to make it as a CF or SS, so if he makes it, it's as a hitting corner. I believe DeJesus also has some possible projection to grow into enough bat and perhaps power to be more a corner than just a needs-to-play-center.

Geiger http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20100705/SPORTS/7050307/1002/SPORTS/Merritt+Island+s+Geiger+will+play+for+AZL+Cubs

Thanks for Rhoderic update, cal. That's good news. Nice to get the bonus info right off the bat, too.

Interesting. Other than the alleged big-ticket 3B we signed from Venez last year, Sanchez to my knowledge might be the first significant-dollar position player we've signed since Felix Pie and Alfredo Francisco(?) back in the 2001 type era. (Resume debate about whether Pie got $125 or $250 or was a $25 bargain, heh heh heh...) Back in the mid-90's they signed a large-dollar catcher, Juan Salazar. But otherwise I'm unaware of the Cubs really spending very strong on position players in Latin. Some pitchers yes (Suarez, they spend a lot on a Martinez? back in the Francisco era who quickly fried his arm...) Sanchez also sounds interesting because Alfredo(?) seemed to be the only dollar guy we ever signed as a power prospect. Most of the position guys have seemed to be liked by the Cubs either because they were fast (middle-infield CF types) or had strong arms (after they couldn't hit, they'd perhaps switch to pitcher.) But Sanchez, if he's 6'2", projectable, above-average raw power, that looks like a guy who might be a power guy and almost certainly won't be a SS. Agree, these Latin players are highly risky. Not like the old days where they'd scout scrawny malnourished kids who'd sometimes blossom fast with a healthy diet. Now a dollar-guy has been run by a buscone who's building him up with both food and steroids. Kids hardly show in many games, so you see a game or two and watch some batting practice. I'd guess scouts are pretty vulnerable to the Harvey/Mallory syndrome; a kid can bomb a few BP pitches, but whether he has any plate discipline, whether he can react on hard stuff, whether he can handle movement, and whether he has any baseball instincts or baserunning instincts or actual game defensive abilities, can't tell. You've got to figure you're going to train the player on every one of those things. Being in the buscone's cow-factory doesn't emphasize that kind of stuff. But fun to have the Cubs do anything, and sign somebody where we know he's a name to track, such that if he does produce, we know we should notice. Tangent: there are a variety of Latin pitchers who are doing OK at Boise/Mesa thus far. But they are all in the 6'0"-6'2" range, and all but one are 20-21 and in their 3rd or 4th pro seasons. (One guy is 18...) If I'd known one was signed for $250, I'd watch him more. But I have no idea whether any of these 20-21 year old Latins are more than roster fillers. Are these like 38th round college draftees who sign for $15K and have no future? Or are some of these guys who do or will throw 90-95, and while they were 6'1" 160 when signed at 17, they are or will be 6'3" 225 and plenty strong? (Angel Guzman type story....)

Stites was supposedly thought by some to be much better than 33rd round talent. And pitching in Florida he wasn't hiding under a rock. When teams know a prospect and let him go beyond round 30, it means one of two things. 1. He isn't viewed as being more than 30th round talent (which appears not to be Stites is case) or 2. His price tag appears to be enough beyond his perceived talent that nobody expects to sign him. And the chance seems so remote that nobody bothered to waste even a 13th or 17th or 21st or 25th or 29th round pick on him. Scouts can be wrong on talent (see McNutt). Scouts can also be wrong on signability (Sean Gallagher was signable at typical $100-150 slot), even though apparently many teams thought he wasn't. Players can change their minds. (Trout of the Angels supposedly demanded $2.5, which may have moved some teams off him; but ended up signing for$1.2 or whatever late first round slot). And certainly players can improve fairly quickly (again see McNutt, and perhaps Wells?) But my guess is Stites will either need to decide to change his mind about his price (lower it), or pitch so impressively that he changes the Cubs mind and valuation of his stuff (relative to what they and the other teams drafting thought a few weeks ago.) I think one or the other will need to move quite a bit to actually get him. The Cubs haven't signed any superslot pitchers that late to real superslot money ever, I don't think. (The token $100-200 slot that McNutt and Struck signed for is not going to sign this guy unless he drops his tag a bunch.) I hope he pitches so great this summer that the Cubs are happy to go beyond the $200 slot.

Now I'm hearing that ARcher and Shafer have also been promoted, Carbrera and Maestri sent to Daytona.

http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2010/jun/27/jacksons-hr-debut-not-enough-for-smokies/ According to knoxnews, I'm wrong. "The 22-year-old Dolis, a 6-foot-4 right-hander from the Dominican Republic, will start tonight's game at West Tenn."

Agree that the Dolis promotion, rather than Rusin or Archer, seems surprising. Two hypotheses: 1. Dolis has pitched effectively enough, but he's typically been better early and his stuff seems to deteriorate after a couple of innings. He doesn't have the K-stuff or the pitch efficiency to be a starter, so they're ready to finally move him to his eventual home, relief. If they don't want to add a starter to Tenn, then Archer and Rusin up as starters. 2. The other possible logic is that Archer is in a groove, he's got a pitching coach who's got him rolling, and they just don't want to mess with his success. Let him stay locked in.