Jim Callis
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Everything posted by Jim Callis
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I thought McQuade would go a little higher than the 15th round. He doesn't have a standout tool but he does a lot of things well. He can hit, has gap power and runs pretty well. He may throw well enough to play right field as a pro.
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I've dealt with this in some earlier questions, so I'll move on for the sake of time.
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There's no clear frontrunner. Drew is in the mix, along with UCLA first baseman Wes Whisler, Rice RHPs Wade Townsend and Jeff Niemann, Vandy LHP Jeremy Sowers and Long Beach State RHP Jered Weaver. I'm not up as much on the HS guys right now.
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The commissioner's office recommends bonus limits for each of the picks in the first 10 rounds, and has told teams to clear any six-figure offers beyond the fifth round with MLB. But in truth, there's no punishment that can be handed out if teams don't comply. If the Cubs signed Powell for $1 million, that would be a huge mistake because I don't think there's a team who thinks he's nearly that good. I doubt seriously that the Cubs, with Andy MacPhail as team president, would openly defy MLB.
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No big-time standouts. Ninth-rounder Drew Larsen projects as more of a third baseman. Twelfth-rounder Chuck Hickman has a nice year at Louisiana Tech but is kind of undersized and might not hit nearly as well with wood. Thirteen-rounder Ryan Coultas has a nice glove and questionable bat.
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I think RHP/OF Ryan Webb is Dunedin's top guy for next year, though I won't claim to tell you how high he might go. Dunedin product Scott Hemond became a first-rounder in the mid-80s after playing in college at South Florida. Brian Dopirak's teammate Steven Doetsch was an eighth-rounder last year and signed for $100,000 with the Braves as a 14th-rounder after a year of junior college. Ryan Harvey's teammate Scott Leffler was considered one of the best defensive catchers in the draft, but went in the 21st round to the Twins, apparently because of signability concerns.
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I share your enthusiasm. I don't think Downs ever will have a plus fastball, but if he becomes a solid upper-80s guy that's pretty good for a lefty. His command is very, very good, and both his curveball and changeup have plus potential. He could become a No. 3 starter--though maybe not on the Cubs' deep staff.
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As I mentioned with Powell before, I think he's more insurance if the Cubs don't sign Fox or Richie. Powell wants first-round money and he's not going to get it. The Cubs might be willing to give him third- or fourth-round money if they can't land Fox or Richie but I'd be shocked if they went higher. Fuld had a disappointing year and will be tough to sign away from his senior year at Stanford. Brown had a disappointing year also. Because the Cubs didn't have a second-round pick, it's possible they could chase Fuld or Brown with a pretty decent offer.
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I think the Cubs blend it all, which is the approach I would take. I'm not sure how much statistical analysis they do, but their attitude seems to be to take the best available player, regardless of whether he's a high school or college product. You also don't see them overdrafting toolsy players whose production has fallen well short of their physical gifts. It has to be a blend. You can't go all tools or all stats, or all college or all high school, because you're going to miss a lot of good players if you take a very narrow approach. If more teams go heavily after college players, then high school players may provided markedly better values in the second, third, fourth rounds, etc., in the future. I recently did a story on the high school/college debate (http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/draft0311.html) and concluded that in the long run, there's little different between the two crops. College players are cheaper and develop quicker, but high school players are just as likely to become big league regulars and slightly more likely to become above-average big leaguers.
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With the caveat that we don't know who will or won't sign or how these guys will look in their first summer of pro ball, I'll say I liked the draft. Ryan Harvey has exciting upside, and I think most scouts liked him a little more than Tulane first baseman Michael Aubrey, who was the alternative. Their catching will be much improved with Jake Fox, Tony Richie and whomever else they sign, and I love the Downs pick. I'm also intrigued by 46th-rounder Jefferies Tatford, though I'm not sure how signable he is.
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Thanks for all the kind words and I enjoy answering educated questions. LaPorta has some strength in his bat and in his arm, though he might be a little raw as a hitter. I'm not sure how much it will take to sign him. The Cubs drafted a lot of catchers, and I think some of the later picks may have been insurance in case they can't sign some of the earlier ones. I'm sure there will be a Landon Powell question upcoming, but I don't see the Cubs signing him if they land both Fox and Richie, which they're expected to do.
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Chicago obviously addressed its greatest weakness by going heavy after catchers. I really like Tony Richie (fourth round) out of Florida State. He's a great receiver with a good enough arm and a track record of performing at the plate (though the Seminoles play in a very benevolent park for hitters). Jake Fox (third round) out of Michigan is an offensive-minded catcher who's not as good as Richie behind the plate. He could move, though I'm sure the Cubs will keep both as catchers for a while.
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Fifth-rounder Darin Downs doesn't really fit that profile, but he might be a steal. He doesn't have a great arm but he has great pitchability and could move pretty quick for a high schooler. Matt Brown (29th round) has had his moments in the Cape Cod League the last two years and is pretty good when he's at his best. He's probably a tough sign, though.
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I hadn't thought about this much but that's a great comparison. Harvey is even built along the lines of Borchard, too. I think they're pretty even for power, arm strength, speed and fielding. There are some scouts who have some issues with Harvey's immediately hittability, which has been an issue for Borchard as well. Until we see Harvey in pro ball, I wouldn't want to say he'd have Kearns' plate discipline.
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I may be slightly delayed and arrive closer to 1:30 Central. Sorry for the delay, but I see lots of good questions await and I can't wait to dive into them. Be back shortly.