Jim Callis
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Everything posted by Jim Callis
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Not to take the easy way out, but almost any team, contender or noncontender, never has enough pitching. And the Cubs have such quality pitching prospects that almost any team would be interested in what they have to offer. If the Cardinals drop out of the race, and were willing to trade with a division rival (which might not be smart on their part), I'd go hard after Edgar Renteria.
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I heard good things about his splitter, too. He could be tired, but I wouldn't read too much into spring performance. He probably wasn't going to make the big league club anyway. Should be able to help out at some point this year.
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Kelton and Dubois are similar hitters. Kelton is a better pure hitter, while Dubois gets on base more and has more power potential. Jackson can't match their power, but he's a center fielder. All three should be big league ready after 2004, if not during the year. In Jackson's defense, he hasn't been 100 percent very much since 2001, so I wouldn't judge him too harshly based on 2003.
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Angel Guzman would be the most untouchable, but if the Cubs could get a true impact hitter for him, they probably should consider it. They have so many pitchers, and the attrition rate is scary, that they can afford to trade some. It's hard to say on the position players, because the guy who has the best chance to be a difference-maker is Ryan Harvey, and he's probably three years away, at least.
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I don't either. I still think he can be an above-average big league starter, though we may never see another Pedro Martinez. If you trade him now, you trade him at what might be well below his peak value. He needs consistent innings to improve his command. If I were the Cubs, I would have spent the Maddux money on a hitter and given Cruz the No. 5 starter spot.
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I think between David Kelton and Jason Dubois, the Cubs could get by at first base if Lee were hurt, though they wouldn't be as good and the Cubs couldn't afford to lose one of their two best hitters. Would Baker want to give one of those guys a shot? Maybe not. He might play Todd Walker at first base.
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Long term, Petrick is the best. He also has the best fastball, right ahead of Marmol. Clanton's curveball is the best breaking pitch, but he hasn't been healthy. Bay has the best command of that group. They're all guys with plus arms who need a lot of polish at this point.
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We're talking about a guy who hasn't pitched above low A, so we won't know for a few years what the true answer will be. But my gut feeling is that if a guy has poor control at age 23, the odds that he'll have average control down the road are not good. He might be best off as a reliever. He's definitely worth watching, because he can be unhittable at times with his low-90s fastball and knee-buckling curveball.
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I wouldn't indict the instructors. It all starts with talent, not that the Cubs have done a poor job of signing hitters. They have focused on hitters and pitchers, not excluding hitters at all, but in most cases the pitchers have worked out better. It's somewhat of a concern for two reasons. First, the attrition rate among pitchers is higher than it is among hitters. Five of the Cubs' top seven prospects and 22 of their top 30 are pitchers; their chances of winding up with successful big leaguers would be higher if those ratios were reversed. Second, their pitching staff is a lot stronger than their offense at the major league level. It's hard not to love that staff, but I think the lineup could hold them back this year. I see only two players who are sure to be above-average offensively at their positions (Derrek Lee, Sammy Sosa).
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He's decent but nothing special. He's just an extra lefty for the bullpen, not a late-inning guy.
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The Cubs haven't given up on him, but for a guy who's going to have to be an offensive second baseman, he hasn't shown nearly enough offense.
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I think the Cubs realize they pushed Patterson too hard and he wasn't as refined as he could have been when he got to Chicago. I think they'll move Pie very patiently, and with Patterson in Chicago, they don't need to rush another center fielder.
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Teams generally don't trade prospects for prospects, unless it's a minor deal involving someone who has to be protected on a 40-man roster for someone who doesn't. I think in general, teams are more comfortable with the prospects they know. I agree, it would be a lot more interesting, but even with the teams you cite, I don't know if there's a great match. The Devil Rays wouldn't deal B.J. Upton or Delmon Young for any Cubs prospect (nor would I). And I don't see the Cubs dying to deal for Joey Gathright or Wes Bankston or Antonio Perez, Tampa Bay's next-best pitching prospects. With the Rangers, their top position guys are Adrian Gonzalez, Ramon Nivar and Vince Sinisi, who would be redundant with Derrek Lee and Corey Patterson around. And if you're talking about Texas' young big leaguers, such as Hank Blalock and Mark Teixeira, the Rangers aren't going to trade them for pitching prospects.
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Dontrelle Willis wouldn't be eligible because he has pitched more than 50 innings in the majors. But assuming he were eligible, he'd be the No. 1 prospect on the list based on his performance in the majors and minors. I love Angel Guzman, but I'd take Dontrelle Willis over him right now.
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Hmmmm. I think Jason Wylie could exceed expectations, because he never gets much mention but could be a pretty nice big league reliever. That said, the Cubs do like him and have high hopes for him. I like Todd Wellemeyer, but I wonder if he'll live up to expectations with being bounced back and forth between Triple-A and Chicago and the rotation and bullpen. For all his potential, he hasn't posted an ERA lower than 4.70 since leaving Class A. And he's already 25.
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When we rate prospects, it's a combination of ceiling and likelihood of reaching that ceiling. Or risk vs. reward, if you will. Nolasco has solid but not special stuff. Dopirak and Petrick have considerably higher ceilings, though Nolasco is a safer pick. There are a lot of Nolascos in Class A or below, but fewer guys with a chance to do what Dopirak or Petrick might do. Nolasco could easily wind up being a better player; I have them all ranked in a group from 17-20, and there's not much difference between No. 17 and No. 20.
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OK, these are all future grades rather than present grades. I tend to be conservative. Best Hitter For Average--Brendan Harris, 60 Best Power--Ryan Harvey, 75 Fastest Baserunner--Dwaine Bacon, 80 Best Fastball--Angel Guzman, 70 Best Curveball--Bobby Brownlie, 75 Best Slider--Jared Blasdell, 60 Best Changeup--Angel Guzman, 65 Best Control--Chadd Blasko, 60 Best Defensive Catcher--Tony Richie, 60 (for catch-and-throw package) Best Defensive Infielder--Ronny Cedeno, 60 Best Infield Arm--Ronny Cedeno, 65 Best Defensive Outfielder--Felix Pie, 70 Best Outfield Arm--Ryan Harvey, 65
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He had some interesting upside, but even before he got hurt the Cubs were getting a bit frustrated that his sum was less than total of his individual parts. I didn't rank him after 2002, when he was fully healthy.
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When I saw that, I laughed. The Cubs can't possibly trade Juan Cruz for Josh Wilson. The Blue Jays are high on both Adams and Hill, plus they have a lot of pitchers they like, so I can't see Toronto doing that deal.
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I don't think the pitcher bats, but otherwise you're on the right track. The benefits of a simulated game are that you can hold one whenever you want and with fewer players, kind of combining a lot of the benefits of both a game and working on the side.
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I probably like Kelton a little more than most. I think he can hit .275 with 20 or so homers, but that's not a ton of production for a first baseman or corner outfielder. Jackson has been held back by injuries the last two years, but he could hit for the same average with less power but more speed and play center field. I think both can be big league regulars but don't see either as frontline players. With Corey Patterson around, I doubt Jackson gets much of a shot with the Cubs, and Kelton might not either.
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Thanks for the kind words. I gave the edge to Pinto specifically because he misses a lot more bats. Vazquez has solid average velocity and a lot of life on his fastball, but needs to develop some more command and better secondary pitches. It's easy to Rule 5 and keep a lefty pitcher, and a lot of the guys I rated ahead of him didn't have to be protected. So that's why the Cubs put him on the 40-man and not a lot of those other guys.
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Clubs are more likely to change the mechanics of a pitcher than of a hitter. Some are more hands-on than others. I do know that scouts who saw him felt the same way, that he wouldn't ever hit for power with his current stance. The Cubs are going to take things slow with Pie and I believe they'll leave him alone in high Class A this year.
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Mitre is more of a back-half-of-the-rotation guy for me. He's not overpowering, so he's going to have to learn to locate his pitches better. He can throw strikes, but he gives up a lot of hits. His sinker is his best pitch, but I think Derek Lowe comparisons are a bit much. He may wind up as a big league middle reliever, and because he's so close to the majors I wouldn't be surprised if he gets used as trade bait this summer.
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I think the Cubs still took the top guy on their draft board each round last year, though they pushed several catchers up the draft board. Despite their efforts, they're still pretty thin behind the plate. Tony Richie had more shoulder problems and Jake Fox wasn't impressive defensively, so they're still looking for catchers.