cheapseats
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Everything posted by cheapseats
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The tool assumes .150 OBP and .150 SLG? No, I plugged in the actual OBP and SLG of Cubs pitchers last year. You expect 830 runs? Really? Do you think Soriano makes that much difference? You do know that the 2004 team with Lee, Alou, Sosa, Ramirez, Patterson (who had a pretty good year), Barrett, Gonzalez/Nomar (both better offensively than Izturis) and Walker/Grudz didn't score even 800 runs? You do realize the 2006 team was 2nd worst in the NL in runs scored? I'd be happy if this were a top 5 offense, but it's not. I'd be thrilled if this was an 830-run offense, but it's not.
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According to the Lineup Analysis tool at Baseball Musings, the lineup you proposed would be good for 802 runs over the course of a 162-game season, which would have made the Cubs the 13th team overall in runs scored last season. But that assumes everyone plays to their three year splits, which may not happen. It assumes that everyone plays every day, which certainly will not happen. Blanco will get around 32 starts, for example. What happens if Lee gets hurt again or Aramis misses time? It's likely that we've got somewhere between the 15th and 20th best offense in MLB in terms of runs scored without making another addition. In the NL, we'll probably rank somewhere between 6th and 8th.
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It doesn't feel good for me this week. I have Donovan McNabb, Kevin Jones, and Marques Colston. And Clinton Portis. :cry:
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This was the worst team in the NL last year. Does adding Soriano suddenly make the Cubs "a winner?" John Wooden said, "Don't mistake activity for achievement."
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Finally, a voice of reason. :D In standard Yahoo scoring, Green has been worth two points more than Dunn this season, and he's played in two fewer games than Dunn. And Dunn is facing one of the best defenses in the league. Hey Rookie - Dunn had 57 yards and Green had 29. Ray Lewis didn't play making previous D stats irrelevant. There is more to Fantasy football than stats and predictions :wink: Some times you just got to go with your instincts. :) Haha, I forgot there was a Voice of Reason here. :D I wouldn't be sad if I played Green over Dunn today. Green was worth just 1 point in standard scoring, and Dunn was worth 2. Both were lousy.
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That's exactly why it's useful.
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Just out of curiosity - I'm not being sarcastic here - but how accurate are your weekly projections and how do you do them? I trust my projections more than those of Yahoo, footballguys.com, or Fox. In week 8, for example, my numbers said Vince Young would have a better day than Donovan McNabb, which seemed crazy to me, but it worked out that way. Of course, no one can tell the future; there's a difference between figuring probabilities and prophesying. I use a lot of the numbers from footballoutsiders.com, which is a sister site of Baseball Prospectus. They even break down which defenses are best and worst against #2 receivers, tight ends, etc. I do fundraising research/projections for a university, so I work with statistics every day. This is the first year I've done fantasy football, and I'm addicted. :D
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Finally, a voice of reason. :D In standard Yahoo scoring, Green has been worth two points more than Dunn this season, and he's played in two fewer games than Dunn. And Dunn is facing one of the best defenses in the league.
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that's a good question. tell me Cubs fans, if the Cubs went from 93 wins one year to 78 the next, would you call your GM stupid? Paul Byrd, Lou Merloni, Danny Graves, Steve Karsay, Einar Diaz, Jason Johnson, Dutchvalue, the Crisp trade, and the disassembly of a solid pen. are these the genius moves that put that 93 win team over the top? the grass is always greener my friends. To be fair, Cleveland was incredibly unlucky last year. Pythagororean had them at 88 wins instead of 78. That doesn't mean Hollandsworth et al were good ideas, though.
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Barrett on the Block?
cheapseats replied to jmajew's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
This would only be true if we decided to completely ignore the year 2004. There are lots of reasons one might choose to ignore 2004: the Bush reelection (if he really won), Van Helsing, the Britney Spears/Kevin Federline wedding. etc. However, Yadier did back up Mike Matheny that year, and I saw him do so with my own two eyes. -
New England is tough against the run, but they're only average against passes to running backs, and they're a very slightly above average defense overall. Green gets many more touches in the red zone than Dunn. I do my own weekly projections, and I have at least 15 RB's ranked ahead of Dunn this week.
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Yep, that's pretty much how every analyst uses BABIP. I don't know of anyone who places much emphasis on "single ratios" and XBH's, though. All you really need to do is look at the correlation of line drive percentage to BABIP and compare those figures to the batter's past numbers. I think we're really just arguing over semantics. When most analysts refer to BABIP, they're referring to more than just the statistic itself; they're referring to it in relation to line drive percentage, pop-fly percentage, HR/FB percentage, etc. A good place to check out such stats is The Hardball Times, by the way.
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No way! Green by a mile this week.
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Of course. I can't go back in time and make the Rangers give Derosa more atbats in 2005. But if we're going to throw out all data previous to 2006 because he was a part-time player in those years, we can't observe that he had an increase in his double rate, either. I don't understand why UK looks at XBH rather than slugging percentage. SLG% is a better way to judge power than looking at XBH.
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Derosa hit a double in every 29.6 AB in 2005. Derosa hit a double in every 13 AB in 2006. Yes, that's an increase. Derosa hit a HR in every 18.5 AB in 2005. Derosa hit a HR in every 40(!) AB in 2006. Usually when there's an increase in doubles, it occurs because of a decrease in HR's. I'd be happy to have Derosa platoon with Jacque, but it's unlikely that he'll be used in such a fashion.
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Doesn't that make the stat pretty much invalid? no, that's the whole point. by reviewing the effect of those two things, you can isolate the other statistics and understand anomalous ERA's or WHIPs etc. Yep, what stitch said. BABIP can be a very, very useful tool in evaluating pitchers.
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???? BABIP ignores K's. That's his point - because they rack up a lot of Ks, they have fewer ABs that they get outs with, so their BABIP will be higher. But it doesn't work that way. Strikeouts are simply removed from the equation; having a high strikeout total has a very tenuous (if any) correlation to BABIP. Using Randy Johnson and Mark Prior as examples: Randy Johnson's K/9 was 11.2 in 2002 and his BABIP was .292. The next year, his K/9 dropped to 9.5, but his BABIP shot up to .357. In the next season, his K/9 increased to 10.0 and his BABIP went down to .269. In 2005, his K/9 dropped to 8.1 and his BABIP rose to .288. Mark Prior's 2004 K/9 was 9.5 and his BABIP was .333. In 2005, his K/9 was 9.8 and his BABIP was .283. His K/9 dropped to 7.7 in 2006, but his BABIP increased to .298. I'm not suggesting the relationship is the inverse of what has been suggested here; if we were to look at enough data, it would appear that there's no relationship. BABIP is influenced by 1) the defense behind the pitcher and 2) luck.
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???? BABIP ignores K's.
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Cubs sign DeRosa for 3 yrs/$13M
cheapseats replied to Shilzzz's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
(b) yes, Drew wants to play CF. There was controversy in LA when he was signed because he wanted to play CF and Bradley was already playing that position. © PECOTA projects Derosa will be worth $650,000 in 2007, $575,000 in 2008, and $500,000 in 2009. That's more than $1 to $1.5 per. -
Cubs sign DeRosa for 3 yrs/$13M
cheapseats replied to Shilzzz's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I don't think anyone here cares about batting average. You might as well cite his shoe size. $20 says Craig Wilson has a better OBP than Derosa next year, smart guy. -
What's so funny about his name?
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Vick and Brees are #4 and #5 overall at QB in standard Yahoo scoring, so it's nice to have your problem. I'd go with Vick without much hesitation. My projections have him worth about 3 points more than Brees in week 10.
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Yeah I can see it now, and I miss game 163 because newly divorced Reese Witherspoon is busily feeding me grapes one at a time and fanning me. 8) if we're doing this, we might as well do this. reese witherspoon is not even close to acceptable for that role. and "fanning" is definitely the wrong gerund. oh Reese is acceptable for any role as far as I'm concerned! When I was in high school, Reese went to a nearby Catholic school. Her friends were much hotter than she was, and she was a little snobby.
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Sammy vs LHP in 2005: .370 OBP .471 SLG Jacque vs LHP in 2006: .261 OBP .416 SLG I'd do that in a heartbeat.
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Against the 5th best defense vs TE in the NFL? I'd start Clark or Witten ahead of Gates this week. But I started Vince Young over McNabb last week. :twisted: I almost always go with my projections, especially later in the season when outcomes are more predictable. I'll sit a "stud" if another player has a highly favorable matchup. But a lot of people are successful with the philosophy of always starting the best players regardless of matchups.