Some of this was posted elsewhere in looking at the Cubs futility, but it fits here as well, so... BP (and other sites, but in this case BP) looks at how many runs a team "should" score given the same offensive outputs (hits, doubles, SB, etc.). In looking at the NL, the Cubs have scored 22 runs fewer than would be expected and the Cards have scored 55 more than expected. Looking at the NL Central offenses and runs expected vs. actual: Cubs -22 Cards +53 Astros +25 Brewers -1 Reds +2 Pirates +8 There is also a similar way look at what opposing teams have done against a pitching staff and what number of runs that would be expected. The Cardinals are about on target on the defensive end. Using these 2 methods, the luckiest team in the NL is...the Cardinals, at 7 games better than expected followed closely by the 'amazing' Nationals. Now there will be outcries that fundamental teams are better at scoring runs. Walks are the key? The Red Sox are about equal to what their peripheral stats would suggest. Small ball? When analyzed, its been no more likely to add runs. (Though the luckiest team in the league - the Good Guys, have scored 29 runs more than expected - even when accounting for the speedy Scott P). The Cards were similarly advantaged last year. That's baseball.