JGalt73

Simulations for the rest of the season based on RS, RA, adjustments, etc... Baseball Prospectus simulation run 1 million times: Cubs chance of postseason: 0.22058%, record 79-83 coolstandings.com simulated "millions of times": Cubs chance of postseason: <0.1%, record 77-85

It seems like the Kerry Wood surgery news (or possible non-surgery news early) has always been portrayed as minor shoulder problem with a quick recovery likely. It appears that the possibilities that this is much worse than anticipated are possible and should have always been anticipated. We never seem to catch a break, so here's hoping we catch one now - unless the break is in Kerry's shoulder... Tribune: "Unless Kremcek discovers a tear in the labrum or rotator cuff, the Cubs expect Wood back by spring training in February, looking to regain his old spot in the rotation." Sun-Times: "...hope the exploratory procedure will find nothing more serious than the fraying around the rotator cuff and labrum that is causing Wood pain and inflammation after throwing more than 50 pitches." Daily Herald: “Dr. Kremchek obviously felt that with his studying of the MRIs and his experience that it would be nothing that would stop him from being available once spring training opened,” said Cubs general manager Jim Hendry. “We’re not in a situation (in the standings) like we wanted it to be to have it done in late October or November.” Cubs trainer Mark O’Neal said Wood has experienced normal “fraying” in the shoulder and that short of an unexpected development, such as a tear in the labrum, Wood should be fine after a winter of rehab.

Article, sorry subscription only content BP has an excellent article today on the reasons for the season's demise. Much of it is contained in the many Dusty threads on this board. (It is subsciption only content. If you haven't got it - you should!) Highlights: 1) "The gap between Cubdom and contention is wide, but so much of it is contained in three Baker mistakes: using Neifi Perez and Corey Patterson atop the lineup, refusing to play his better left fielders, not keeping Rusch in the rotation." 2) "Baker continues to show little understanding of how an offense works, of how to fit his players' skills to the proper roles. Worse, he shows little desire to learn these things, making the same mistakes repeatedly while taking little criticism for his decisions, and deflecting what criticism comes in a manner that has nothing to do with baseball." Nice to see it spelled out - with examples.

Amazing in Tampa... 19 games 21.3 innings 7 hits 4 BB 8 K 0 R 0 ER 13.1 VORP

"I'm not going to Chicago," Griffey told The Dayton Daily News

I posted this in yesterday's gamethread: Batting Cubs see 3.61 pitches/PA (29th/30 in MLB) Pitching we throw 3.84 pitches/PA (Tied for highest in MLB) Pitches taken should be no surprise. The pitches thrown is likely a function of league leading K's. It is interesting however, how the top three K leaders in each league have done in pitches/PA. 1. Cubs 7.94 K/9 2. Houston 7.41 K/9 3. Milwaukee 7.10 K/9 6. Angels 6.93 K/9 8. Baltimore 6.65 K/9 9. Oakland 6.54 K/9 Pitches per PA: Cubs (Tied 1st MLB 3.84/PA) Houston (3.72/PA 19th MLB) Milwaukee (3.81/PA 3rd MLB) Angels (3.79/PA 5th MLB) Baltimore (3.78/PA 8th MLB) Oakland (3.80/PA 4th MLB) Houston is the anomaly in high K/9 and low pitches/PA (maybe facing the Cubs a lot helps!). Anyone else surprised that the Brewers are 3rd in the league in K's?

I'd swing 1st pitch here!

Can Nomar PH?

Thank goodness we carry 12 pitchers!

Because the off day is probably Dusty's excuse to let Prior throw 130+ pitches. (On that note I am all in favor of spot starting ANYONE/ANYWHERE for the rest of the season to limit innings on Prior and Zambrano).

Pitching we throw 3.84/PA (Tied for highest in ML) Batting we see 3.61/PA (2nd worst in ML)

That will be a costly walk.

Todd Walker is 4th best among the Cubs' regulars at avoiding the DP. For all Cubs with at least 20 chances at hitting into a double play, here are your worst offenders by percent of the time they hit into the twin killing: Name Opportunties:DP and % 1. Jose Macias 20:6 30.0% 2. Neifi Perez 65:13 20.0% 3. Henry Blanco 22:4 18.2% 4. Jason Dubois 22:4 18.2% 5. Michael Barrett 52:9 17.3% 6. Jeromy Burnitz 79:13 16.5% 7. Jerry Hairston 42:5 11.9% 8. Aramis Ramirez 81:9 11.1% 9. Todd Walker 59:6 10.2% 10. Derrek Lee 75:6 8.0% 11. Todd Hollandsworth 63:4 6.3% 12. Corey Patterson 56:3 5.4% Who was surprised by 1 and 2?

BP's free coverage of the game

I'm coming down squarely on the "need a miracle" side of things. What's most disappointing, however, is that nobody is running away with the NL wild card in the last 10 games. Had we not been playing worse than anyone else, we'd have had a chance to make a run. Records last ten games in the NL wildcard: Houston 5-5 Washington 4-6 Philadelphia 6-4 Florida 5-5 NY Mets 5-5 Milwaukee 6-4 Chicago Cubs 1-9 And those Mets and Phillies wins are at our expense! A golden opportunity wasted.

:shock: On 94 pitches, no less. Geez. He threw first pitch strikes to 20 of the 29 he faced. I knew I should have driven to this game!

The 19 year old Mariner - Felix Hernandez - records his first win with a nice line against the Twins: 8 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K This kid could be the real deal. Consistent 96-97 mph fastball with a wicked slider and some nice offspeed stuff.

Bad first outing for Remmy. 0 IP, 2H, 4R, 2ER, BB, WP He was hurt by a big Renteria error after letting the first 3 men reach. 2nd ER was after he left.

I dont think its a shame. Considering how bad our offense has been 3runs should've been good enough for him. He has been giving up wayy too many homers lately anyways. 3 runs over 7 is better than average, but not great. At least Ohman didn't just blow the win for Prior - just for the Cubs.

IIRC, Kurt Busch is a life long Cubs fan. Well now I have 1 thing to like about NASCAR.

"Paging Tom House. Tom House, report to Chicago immediately." I'm still giving bed (mound) #1 to Wood...

I'll take a solo HR. It's the only way we can guarantee not leaving the runner at 2nd!

Todd's 8th on the team for having runners on while at bat. It's also rare for him to have a man on 3d (13 AB's). However, he is also 8th in RBI's per runner on base in front of him. Best for position players in plating runners - Lee, Ramirez, Barrett, Neifi!, Blanco, Hollandworth, THEN Walker). Lets not forget the time spent on the DL as a contributing factor. Agreed, but he's also not taken as great advantage as others - hence the less stellar rate stat (tempered by the majority of runners on only first).

Todd's 8th on the team for having runners on while at bat. It's also rare for him to have a man on 3d (13 AB's). However, he is also 8th in RBI's per runner on base in front of him. Best for position players in plating runners - Lee, Ramirez, Barrett, Neifi!, Blanco, Hollandworth, THEN Walker).

There was a time this year where 2 men on in front of Lee and Ramirez was automatic. Now it's just sad.