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JGalt73

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Everything posted by JGalt73

  1. JGalt73
    From Bruce Miles: From the Trib: Can someone tell Dusty that there is no "stretch". Sit down your hurt players, stop having starting pitchers throw 120 pitches to protect a lead...
  2. JGalt73
    Smoltz vs. Pedro's on soon...
  3. JGalt73
    Murton just needed some time off after those gruelling 26 ABs he got in August.
  4. JGalt73
    When is the last time Prior's appeared to have all his pitches working? It seems like every post game recently is "I did what I could because I didn't have my ______-ball today."
  5. JGalt73
    Don't have that ratio, but... Macias leads the NL (3rd in MLB) in % of the time he hits into the DP among players with at leat 20 chances to do so. In 23 DP opportunities, Macias has hit into 7 twin killings - 30.4% Next best/worst Cub - Neifi at 8th in NL with 18/76 - 23.7%
  6. JGalt73
    I'm just surprised he got snubbed in the MLB.com best utility men column...oh, the injustice!
  7. JGalt73
    Is that the lineup? Where did you get it so early? I wish I could say I made it up and it was wrong, but...Gameday.
  8. JGalt73
    Hairston Perez Lee Burnitz Garciaparra Walker Barrett Patterson Williams No kids allowed.
  9. JGalt73
    No Prior, no Zambrano, no Lee, no Aramis, no chance of contention - and 2 of the only reasons left to check out the Cubs are on the bench?
  10. JGalt73
    I guess McClain is "owed" the start that Cedeno and Murton can't get. Nice to see us try out the new kid.
  11. JGalt73
    And that could certainly have something to do with the better protection Lee has recieved from the #4 slot that I detailed in a previous post... I agree with you, to this point, it's been very close. I'm not going to "cast my ballot" until the season is essentially over...by then Lee will either have resurged and cemented his case, or he will have faded his way out of the race. I don't see much of a chance to the race being as close as it is right now in another month. Someone will pull away from the pack. There is no solid evidence that "protection" by a good player in the on deck circle has a positive effect on a batter's performance. Bradbury Grabiner Let's just follow VORP (or the like) multiply, add, or subtract our own beliefs that winning or the value to the team are important and call it a day - at the end of the season. There is no longer a clearly superior player here like there was earlier in the year.
  12. JGalt73
    Pujols # Runners while at bat at 1B 193 2B 118 3B 65 Lee # Runners while at bat at 1B 145 2B 107 3B 58 So, the fact that the extra runners are much more likely to be at first base and out of scoring position skews the "runners aboard" statement... That's not to say that the 10% disadvantage in runners at second and third (in scoring position) that Lee faces isn't important...it's just that when you include the 25% difference at first, it overstates the disadvantage that Lee is actually facing. There's a big difference between 10%, and the 18% overall disadvantage that the 376 and 310 numbers imply. I guess we'll take back the 14 RBI's Albert got from AB's with a lone runner scoring from 1st! Seriously this is a very close call, but Pujols' had more chances to score runners from every base and has scored them at a slighly worse rate.
  13. JGalt73
    Pujols # Runners while at bat at 1B 193 2B 118 3B 65 Lee # Runners while at bat at 1B 145 2B 107 3B 58
  14. JGalt73
    Pujols has had a total of 376 runners on base in his PA's - 14th best in MLB - and plated 65 (.1729 RBI/runner). Lee has had a total of 310 runners on base in his PA's and plated 55 (.1774 RBI/runner). Neither rate of plating runners is running away with the league. Aramis Ramirez has been more efficient than either, as has So Taguchi. Eckstein's rate (264 runners leading to 46 RBI) bests Pujols.
  15. JGalt73
    The Red Sox have scored at least 7 runs at home in their last 14 straight home games (and lost only 1 game). Red Sox 129 runs in last 14 home games (9.21 R/G) Total: 409 runs in 63 home games Cubs 69 runs in last 14 home games (4.93 R/G) Total: 314 runs in 69 home games So in the last 14 games the Red Sox have scored 41% of the Cubs season total of runs at home. Oh, to have an offense...and a .361 team OBP.
  16. JGalt73
    I have always wondered where that statement originated from. Does anyone know? What about "a can of corn"? "HITTING IT ON THE SCREWS Golf phrase, meaning you hit it dead center, on the sweet spot. From this golf guide: On the screws: Description for a well-executed shot. In the good ol' days, when woods were made of wood, club makers fitted a plastic insert into the club face as a safeguard against premature wear. These inserts were fastened to the club with screws. When a golfer would hit a good shot, he would say, "I hit it on the screws." --Clay Davenport" Link
  17. JGalt73
    The expected wins/losses of starting pitchers do nothing to narrow the WIDE gap between the Cubs and Cardinals. The -11 versus +157 (runs scored - allowed) difference is about all the gap you need to know. I just found it interesting that so many Cards made the top 5 list. Wins and loses are dependent on many factors beyond a pitcher's control. I could play the stats game to narrow the overall gap between the Cards and Cubs, but we'd still be 7 games out...
  18. JGalt73
    You are correct. W-L records for starters are all a bit of luck - so maybe I should just stop there as this thread quickly then becomes pointless (and I started it!). "Luck" in the BP statistic is only W-L record related, so perhaps it is a bit unfair to use "luckiest" in it's common usage. However, using the numbers you've supplied above the Cards SP record is still more fraught with 'luck' - Actual W% vs Expected W%: Cubs .539 vs .511 ; Cards .642 vs .550.
  19. JGalt73
    From BP's website: "A replacement-level player is one who is "easily available" to any team--a AAA journeyman or end of the bench player. Replacement level is significantly below average--about 80% of average for the position. If you think of it in OPS terms, roughly 70 points of OPS below the average for the position is replacement level. " Quick general VORP questions answered 2/3 way down page.
  20. JGalt73
    Reinforcing the fickle nature of wins and losses, BP looks at actual pitcher W-L records and what would be expected from the number of innings pitched and runs scored compared to historical controls. The Cards pitchers are certainly helped by one the the NL's best offenses on their side. BP Link Your top 5 luckiest NL pitchers: 1) Matt Morris is 14-6 should be 9-9 2) Livan Hernandez is 14-6 should be 11-10 3) Mark Mulder is 15-6 should be 11-8 4) Wandy Rodriguez is 9-5 should be 5-7 5) Chris Carpenter is 19-4 should be 15-7 The Cubs: 14) Prior 10-5 should be 12-10 33) Zambrano 11-5 should be 12-8 57) Williams 4-5 should be 3-5 64) Wood 3-3 is right on 67) Maddux 10-11 is right on
  21. JGalt73
    Why is that interesting? That means he's at the bottom of the barrell. Thanks. I really was getting perplexed by his high ranking. I'd forgotten that I'd excluded the AL! (Neifi is 20th in MLB in VORP)
  22. JGalt73
    Know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? It's 25 hits. 25 hits in 500 at bats is 50 points, okay? There's 6 months in a season, that's about 25 weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week - just one - a gorp... you get a groundball, you get a groundball with eyes... you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week... and you're in Yankee Stadium. -- Crash Davis
  23. JGalt73
    Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) - roughly runs contributed: Burntiz 19.4 Neifi 14.3 Hairston 6.7 When adjusted for playing time the order remains the same. Interestingly, Neifi's now a top 10 NL SS in VORP...
  24. JGalt73
    Do the Cubs have the right to make Patterson to play over the winter? I don't think so. However, I don't know why Patterson wouldn't want to do it. I made the suggestion on here prior to his demotion. But, "It's just a game, you know." Not that it really matters, but that quote was later noted to be a misquote - "It's just THE game". Still doesn't help his OBP though!
  25. JGalt73
    AP Report CHICAGO -- Cubs right-hander Kerry Wood underwent arthroscopic surgery Wednesday to clean out his right shoulder, putting an end to a season riddled by injuries. The hour-long operation included reinforcement of the labrum, as well as a debridement of the rotator cuff and bursa. The procedure was performed by Dr. Timothy Kremchek at Beacon Orthopedics in Sharonville, Ohio. "I spoke with Dr. Kremchek and this was what he was hoping to find when he got in there," Cubs trainer Mark O'Neal said before Wednesday's game against the Los Angeles Dodgers. "This is exactly what he was looking for. We're very pleased with that." Wood is expected to begin a four-month rehabilitation program next week to regain motion and strength. The Cubs hope he'll recover in time to start the 2006 season.
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