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JGalt73

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Everything posted by JGalt73

  1. JGalt73
    Looks like they will try to surgically correct DeRosa's condition... Cubs.com Good luck Mark DeRosa.
  2. JGalt73
    I know this probably belongs in the Brian Roberts thread, but... BP's Analysis of Soriano as a Leadoff Hitter The entire article is free for non-BP subscribers.
  3. JGalt73
    Link
  4. JGalt73
    From BP's newly released PECOTA projections...the graphs give the % likelihood of being a superstar, star, regular, etc. in MLB. Pie's Projected EqA 2008 .273 2009 .277 2010 .281 2011 .284 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/images/piefe01_010.png Fuld's Projected EqA 2008 .243 2009 .249 2010 .245 2011 .250 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/images/fuldsa01_010.png Pie is also projected as a slightly better fielder. There is no comparison.
  5. JGalt73
    Pie for Roberts negates any added benefits over DeRosa if Fuld is Pie's replacement.
  6. JGalt73
    Deleted post. Missed the info being posted earlier due to current sliding debate.
  7. JGalt73
    Tweak #1 to the projections (Divisional Strength), adds 2 wins to the Cubs - projected now to 91. :shock:
  8. JGalt73
  9. JGalt73
    BP Link This is the 1st iteration based on PECOTA and BP's manually entered playing time projections. They will typically update this over the Spring to reflect trades/injuries/playing time guesses. NL Division winners: Mets, Cubs, Diamondbacks, (WC) Brewers
  10. JGalt73
    Link
  11. JGalt73
  12. JGalt73
    As part of their audio package, MLB.com streamed a number of ST games last year that were broadcast by the visiting team.
  13. JGalt73
    Link
  14. JGalt73
    Here's looking forward to Prior's AAA rehab in my backyard.
  15. JGalt73
    I will add all of the requisite qualifiers... FWIW, take this with a grain of salt (TTWAGOS?), etc. Here is the (now old) Orioles Hangout explanation of the earlier Roberts/Cubs fiasco from the Board's version of Tim: Putting The Roberts Situation to Bed
  16. JGalt73
    From the accompanying text with the Reds' projection (and Tim is correct about the lack of a park factor in the OBP & SLG used in the model, BTW):
  17. JGalt73
    Baseball Musings has finished with the offense predictions for the NL Central teams. "I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. For pitchers, I used the team pitcher averages from 2007." Listed in order by "Given lineup" runs scored: Brewers * Best: 5.22 runs per game * Given: 4.97 runs per game * Worst: 4.52 runs per game Cubs * Best: 5.25 runs per game * Given: 4.92 runs per game * Worst: 4.57 runs per game Astros * Best: 5.14 runs per game * Given: 4.84 runs per game * Worst: 4.49 runs per game Cardinals * Best: 4.95 runs per game * Given: 4.76 runs per game * Worst: 4.37 runs per game Reds * Best: 4.82 runs per game * Given: 4.60 runs per game * Worst: 4.22 runs per game Pirates * Best: 4.69 runs per game * Given: 4.48 runs per game * Worst: 4.19 runs per game
  18. JGalt73
    FWIW...PECOTA takes on Roberts vs. DeRosa Roberts 651PA 14HR SB 35/43 (81%) .284/.366/.439 Eq .282/.367/.453 EqA .293 MLVR 0.043 VORP 33.5 WARP 6.6 DeRosa 488PA 12HR SB 3/5 .286/.360/.439 Eq .280/.354/.430 EqA .270 MLVR 0.074 VORP 18.9 WARP 3.5 VORP (offense only in runs) and WARP (Offense + defense in wins) are cumulative stats. Roberts projection is for about 180 more PA. Assuming you "add" the PA missed to DeRosa's WARP you end up around 4.6, making Roberts about 2 wins better. (DeRosa is unlikely to get leadoff hitter amounts of PA, but...) MLVr is a rate stat that looks at runs/g added by that player in an otherwise average lineup. Roberts has an edge here, as well as EqA - an indication of total offensive contribution including baserunning. Add this to the potential use of DeRosa's line in a super-sub role, and ???? How much would the loss of the traded pieces mean to the pitching side? All advantage is off if Pie is traded away (at least by PECOTA prediction). I think we are likely very close to Brewers in the NLC, and a two game swing may be the difference. I'm still not sure how to value a Roberts trade.
  19. JGalt73
    PECOTA assumes only 465 PA for Fukudome.
  20. JGalt73
    Last First Role IP WHIP ERA VORP WXRL WARP Zambrano Carlos SP 195.7 1.33 3.81 35.8 5.5 4.7 Hill Rich SP 175.3 1.25 4.02 29.5 4.6 4.0 Lilly Ted SP 168.7 1.32 4.25 25.7 4.1 3.7 Howry Bob RP 66.0 1.21 3.60 14.8 1.4 2.2 Wuertz Michael RP 55.7 1.32 3.47 14.2 1.2 1.9 Marmol Carlos Swing 68.3 1.39 4.06 13.0 1.3 1.9 Pignatiello Carmen Swing 54.0 1.36 3.72 11.6 1.2 1.7 Marshall Sean SP 112.0 1.45 4.74 10.6 1.8 1.8 Lieber Jon SP 74.3 1.37 4.62 9.2 1.3 1.5 Gallagher Sean SP 121.3 1.55 4.91 8.7 1.6 1.6 Dempster Ryan RP 58.0 1.48 4.24 8.2 1.0 1.8 Marquis Jason SP 132.3 1.48 5.04 8.1 1.7 1.7 Guzman Angel Swing 61.3 1.43 4.57 7.8 0.9 1.3 Wood Kerry RP 44.3 1.38 4.25 7.2 0.6 1.0 Eyre Scott RP 41.7 1.49 4.08 6.9 0.6 1.0 Cotts Neal RP 41.0 1.47 4.31 6.4 0.6 1.0 Miller Wade Swing 57.0 1.56 5.41 1.7 0.4 0.6 Petrick Billy Swing 54.3 1.64 5.38 1.4 0.2 0.5 Veal Donnie SP 110.0 1.68 5.63 0.4 0.8 0.8 Ceda Jose Swing 61.0 1.93 5.55 0.3 0.4 0.4 Takatsu Shingo RP 39.7 1.56 5.67 -0.2 0.0 0.4 Hart Kevin Swing 96.7 1.62 5.80 -2.0 0.3 0.5 Mateo Juan Swing 83.7 1.65 6.21 -4.9 -0.1 0.1 Pawelek Mark Swing 55.3 2.11 8.14 -14.6 -1.5 -1.1 Samardzija Jeff SP 100.0 1.86 7.43 -20.0 -1.4 -1.3
  21. JGalt73
    Last First BA OBP SLG VORP WARP Ramirez Aramis .301 .363 .536 40.7 5.8 Lee Derrek .303 .387 .527 37.7 5.4 Soriano Alfonso .278 .336 .544 31.0 4.9 Fukudome Kosuke .289 .401 .504 29.2 4.4 Soto Geovany .273 .352 .470 23.5 4.7 Pie Felix .291 .344 .479 21.4 3.7 DeRosa Mark .286 .360 .439 18.9 3.5 Patterson Eric .268 .337 .429 17.9 4.2 Fontenot Mike .282 .357 .431 15.4 2.8 Cedeno Ronny .278 .326 .422 13.3 3.1 Murton Matt .295 .359 .462 12.8 2.3 Theriot Ryan .270 .330 .347 6.4 3.1 Ward Daryle .277 .358 .459 4.8 0.6 Colvin Tyler .257 .295 .429 3.4 2.9 Blanco Henry .224 .267 .350 -1.4 0.7
  22. JGalt73
    http://www.baseballmusings.com They are actually running team by team predictions at the moment using the tool.
  23. JGalt73
    http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/mariners/2008/01/angelos_strikes_again.html This soap opera is fascinating...
  24. JGalt73
    I guess he considers Pie in the deal?
  25. JGalt73
    Well if Bedard is the first domino, there may be a problem. http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-os0127,0,5598077.story
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