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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. Rob
    Do they? Hamels is signed for 4/96 after this year. He's a 4 fWAR pitcher on the wrong side of 30 with recent injury issues. He's worth almost exactly what he's getting paid. If the Cubs want to acquire Hamels, they need to do so for a prospect cost of less than they feel Lester and Scherzer are likely to overpaid by. Otherwise, what's the point? Almora straight up would probably be just about an even match for that figure, but when was the last time you saw a guy like Hamels traded straight up for a guy in the middle of a team's top 10 list? Amaro is going to insist on other good prospects in the deal. I don't see our front office doing it. And I don't think they're wrong. Relative to Lester/Scherzer, the 4 year duration is a big benefit. Agreed. I'm even operating under the assumption that Lester and Scherzer are likely to find themselves overpaid due to years 5-7 of whatever contracts they manage to get -- just not by enough to justify a huge prospect package from the Cubs to get Hamels. Agreed. Not sure who it would be though. There's no real obvious targets for a Latos type of trade out there this offseason. Quintana, maybe? But he'd cost a ton with that contract.
  2. Rob
    Who's doing that? I threw him out there as an example of a deal the Cubs would offer, but the Phillies wouldn't accept. Vogelbach is a guy that people throw out there as a trade chip less because of his value but more because he's obviously a man without a position for the Cubs. Even if the bat comes around, he needs to be on an AL team so he can DH.
  3. Rob
    Then the Cubs have unreasonable expectations about what Hamels should return too Do they? Hamels is signed for 4/96 after this year. He's a 4 fWAR pitcher on the wrong side of 30 with recent injury issues. He's worth almost exactly what he's getting paid. If the Cubs want to acquire Hamels, they need to do so for a prospect cost of less than they feel Lester and Scherzer are likely to overpaid by. Otherwise, what's the point? Almora straight up would probably be just about an even match for that figure, but when was the last time you saw a guy like Hamels traded straight up for a guy in the middle of a team's top 10 list? Amaro is going to insist on other good prospects in the deal. I don't see our front office doing it. And I don't think they're wrong.
  4. Rob
    Yeah, there's just about a zero percent chance that anything gets done. Amaro has already shown he has unreasonable expectations about what Hamels should return in a trade. And maybe there was a chance he'd get it when playoff teams were shopping for upgrades, but the Cubs aren't under the same market pressure to add wins this season. I'd be shocked if the Cubs were willing to include someone of Almora's prospect status. Vogelbach, and spare parts maybe.
  5. Rob
    I was higher on Dunston than most, so this sorta takes the wind out of my sails a bit. It's still a worthwhile swap, but I was hoping not to give up quite so much.
  6. Rob
    I was there for the Sam Fuld catch. Ouch.
  7. Rob
    You're welcome.
  8. Rob
    is this especially low compared to other teams or something? The hell if I know. I just thought it was interesting. I'm not about to figure out individual teams though. http://baseballsavant.com/pitchfx_search.php?hfPT=&hfZ=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfAB=&ddlStadium=&hfBB=&hfHL=&hfCount=&ddlYear=2014&ddlPlayer=pitcher&ddlMin=0&ddlPitcherHand=&ddlBatterHand=&ddlVGT=98&ddlVLT=&ddlDistGT=&ddlDistLT=&txtAngleGT=&txtAngleLT=&txtGameDateGT=&txtGameDateLT=&ddlTeam=&ddlPosition=&hfRO=&ddlHomeRoad=&hfIN=&hfOT=&ddlGroupBy=name&ddlSort=desc&ddlMinABs=0&ddlSBSuccess=&txtPx1=&txtPx2=&txtPz1=&txtPz2=&ddlRPXGT_ft=&ddlRPXGT_in=&ddlRPXLT_ft=&ddlRPXLT_in=&ddlRPYGT_ft=&ddlRPYGT_in=&ddlRPYLT_ft=&ddlRPYLT_in=&txtBAGT=&txtBALT=&txtBLGT=&txtBLLT=&txtSRGT=&txtSRLT=&txtSDGT=&txtSDLT=#results
  9. Rob
    The more I think about it, the more I think we don't even have to give that up. If the Marlins were to not come to agreement with the claiming team, then they either have to give him up for nothing or keep him on the 25-man roster the rest of the year, since he has no options remaining. They clearly don't want to keep him on the 25-man roster. So I am not sure what negotiating power they will have. Mainly I am not sure why they waited until August to do this. Today I learned that you can add a player back to the 25 man after DFA'ing him.
  10. Rob
    Fact: The Cubs have only thrown 8 pitches clocked by PitchFX at or above 98 mph. Rondon threw 7. Samardzija threw the other one. Nobody has thrown 99 mph or higher.
  11. Rob
    I never thought I'd say this, but I'd love to see the Cubs grab him. It's just 15 IP, but he's posted some interesting numbers as a reliever, with a 19.7 K% and 4.2 BB%. So even if Bosio can't work some magic and make him a valuable member of the rotation, he could be a pretty effective reliever.
  12. Rob
    yeah, but I couldn't talk the National Speakers Bureau out of nsb.com. :) Maybe try again after Javy renders them speechless.
  13. Rob
    Yeah, that's not a bad comp. The one I was keeping to myself was Bill Hall with a bit more power.
  14. Rob
    There's really no comping Baez easily. His primary defining attribute is his power, and that is really rare in the middle infield. Here's the entire list of 2B and SS with a career ISO over .200: Alex Rodriguez Alfonso Soriano Ernie Banks Troy Tulowitzki Rogers Hornsby Jeff Kent Nomar Garciaparra Dan Uggla Chase Utley Jose Valentin Hanley Ramirez Only Soriano, Uggla, and Valentin posted K% over 20%. So maybe Soriano or Uggla with plus defense at 2B? Or Valentin without any reason to expect a career .272 BABIP?
  15. Rob
    http://i.imgur.com/ny9n4Px.gif
  16. Rob
    http://i.imgur.com/xOSo5XQ.gif
  17. Rob
    I am resolved to not get worked up about callups this time. If it were me, they'd all stay down until late next April. But if the front office wants to bring them up earlier, I'll just take that as a sign that they're confident in their ability to get these guys to agree to favorable contracts.
  18. Rob
    Just because using rankings instead of actual values was killing me inside... I went ahead and compared wRC+ along with both FIP+ and xFIP+ (I went with the + versions of each to make them easier to compare). Everything is park and league adjusted, with a baseline of 100 for the uninitiated. A 105 would be 5% above league average, etc... http://i.imgur.com/151eLkH.png It's not surprising to see that their FIP+ figures fare better than their xFIP+. It just seems to indicate that playoff teams probably had good luck with their HR/FB rates. At any rate, the WS winners had better hitting than pitching, on the average.
  19. Rob
    You should have changed your font to comic sans then. As to point 1, I wont fight you. I was just speaking with regards to rankings of WS winners, which is an admittedly ridiculous criteria. (But one B2B will have trouble fighting against) With regards to point 2, I never meant to imply they're equal. Building around pitching is viable, but a whole hell of a lot tougher to pull off.
  20. Rob
    Not bad, but it really doesn't do much to isolate park and league adjustments. I really don't like using ERA as an indicator either. Team ranks for wRC+, FIP-, and UZR/150: http://i.imgur.com/5nKNdoL.png In what should be a surprise to absolutely nobody, hitting and pitching matter just about equally. You can build your ballclub around either. Edit: Oh, and for anybody wondering I went back to 2002 simply because that's as far back as we have UZR data for.
  21. Rob
    Eli Whiteside HR. Man, this kid is gonna be something special.
  22. Rob
    Soler strikes out looking, but it was a 9 pitch AB.
  23. Rob
    Glad to have ya around.
  24. Rob
    Let's not resort to the argument from authority. It can go both ways. Some pretty smart teams acquired pitching at the deadline this year. Some pretty smart GMs sold pitching. It's a fallacious argument at best. The "smart teams" that acquired pitching at the deadline were the teams that are the teams now now favored to go deep into the playoffs or to win the WS. The "smart GMs" that sold pitching realized that they had no chance of winning, so it was best to cash in the most valuable asset they had (pitching). Are you airquoting Friedman and Cherington as "smart GMs"? Quick, what's your take on Ruben Amaro Jr?
  25. Rob
    Daytona is under a rain delay. Shocker.
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