Rob

It cracks me up how much O's fans value the guy. The Red Sox are giving us a better pitcher in Doubront for a PTBNL. I doubt they turn right around and trade Lester for Gonzalez.

WAR uses xFIP? I thought it was based on actual, not prediction... fangraphs uses fielding independent numbers...but i think it's the FIP, not xFIP, which DUH that explains it BR uses ERA Confirmed. Fangraphs - FIP Baseball-Reference - ERA

He's certainly got his work cut out for him on this one.

http://i.imgur.com/dpX3XLF.gif

http://imgur.com/8cmFUBd.gif

You're not wrong. I don't know what the solution is. Maybe if we unbanned Da Bum then the board would be more focused on him. Then the lurkers wouldn't get swarmed when they pop up with an uninformed opinion, and we might see a few people start to get more active.

I would think that being less wrong would be a better solution. Everybody starts somewhere. I was pretty meatballish still around the time I started posting. Good arguments with smart posters finally brought me around. I think part of the problem for lurkers now is that there's this expectation that they have to already understand all the SABR stuff before they can start posting. And that's just silly. It's a moving target. As the game changes so do all the old SABR rules. It wasn't that long ago that being SABR-savvy meant loving guys like Adam Dunn, which certainly isn't the case anymore. Fielding and baserunning are emphasized more now. With the lower run environment, the sacrifice bunts we used to hate are strategically viable in a much larger number of scenarios. Looking forward, I think we're going to start to see more focus on things like power hitting, positional flexibility, and bullpen usage. I don't know what my point is. Lurkers should post more often though.

http://i.imgur.com/k00SQLx.gif

Don't trust his sudden dominance. Never been a top prospect. Had less than stellar MiLB numbers. This has been his best season since his pro ball debut in 2009. Not sure I'd give up a premier bargaining chip because of half a season of good production. I think if Almora is traded, he can be moved for someone with a little better track record I'm buying Keuchel's production. The minor league numbers aren't really reflective in his case. He added a slider to his pitch mix in 2013. That slider is what lets him get whiffs. The SwStr% isn't out of line for his K rate, so the newfound strikeouts appear to be as real as the slider is. The walk rate is pretty close to his minor league numbers. The groundball rate is obviously elite. The ERA isn't out of whack with his FIP, xFIP, or SIERA. Even if you wanted to project some regression, he'd still look pretty legit to me.

http://i.imgur.com/WKaBf7j.jpg

I'd put Badler and Callis ahead of Parks and Law.

http://i.imgur.com/c14Hlk9.gif

Any reports on his stuff this year? Didn't a lot of his problems come from a bad case of mono or something?

I think that was me. I use that about two or three times a year when I want to look at a player's minor league numbers and college numbers side by side.

It'd be great if Pierce could throw some more strikes.

http://ramblingrooby.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/ham.jpg That kid is now 35 and a scientologist.

counter-offer: castro for mccutchen and polanco Castro for a current version of that girl. There's nudes, if you're interested.

Today I learned Valbuena has more PA as a Cub than Matt Murton, Ronny Cedeno, and Glenallen Hill.

I am world renowned for the degree of my Shiny New Toy Syndrome, but I think he's being criminally undersold by most people. He's posting walk, strikeout, and power rates like Vogelbach while being two years younger and providing some defensive value.

Wow, that was a disturbing read.

I have zero interest in giving six years of guaranteed money to a guy striking out 30% of the time in AAA. As always, it depends on the numbers.

Somebody should submit Billy's phone call to the Vatican. If they determine it was his miracle that brought Rich Harden to the Cubs he'll get a sainthood and a bunch of virgins or something.

I like Vogelbach and really want him to succeed, but the odds are really stacked against him. There's a reason there's rarely any 1B prospects on BA's top 100 list -- you really have to mash the everloving [expletive] out of the ball to justify being a bat-first 1B. And as good as Vogelbach's plate discipline has been, he hasn't mashed the everloving [expletive] out of the ball since Boise.

*checks Kevin Encarnacion's KC numbers* [expletive], another summer of this [expletive]? I'm sure you found that he didn't do very well in those 16 games. And then didn't bother to check his numbers in Boise. And was then severely injured in a car crash and hasn't played since, making him an awful example. But I apologize for my interest in somebody who isn't marveled over in every thread. SCS, I'm sorry, but you don't get to feel righteously indignant on this one. The reason why people don't and shouldn't care about Roberto Caro as a prospect is because of his age relative to his level, that he is repeating this level for the third time...and the fact that he isn't good. You shouldn't be getting pissed about the response you've gotten. Don't chase this windmill. One can think a 17 year old in the VSL or DSL has a chance of being a decent prospect especially if he's performing well, sometimes an 18 year old if they're doing really well (late bloomers and all). Maaaybe a 19 year old if he's a pitcher and is dominant. And almost always a prospect worth following won't spend more than one season there. Some exceptions have occurred to that rule, but not many. But you just advocated for Roberto Caro who is 20 (will turn 21 in just over two months) which makes him 3 years older than most legit prospects in this league. He has spent 3 seasons at the same level and has never been promoted. His hit tool is lacking, hitting just .254 last year and just .279 this year. Lots of people can draw walks in these leagues because they face so many inexperienced pitchers who lack control, so K/BB ratios are almost always misleading and OBPs inflated. Advocating for him is like backing a 24 year old (who is about to 25) and his repeating Kane County for the third year in a row while only producing okay numbers. I still think Brandon Sing will be a star someday.

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the first annual tournament of Kyle, where participants compete to see who can Kyle the best. Your first round matchups are "David vs CubinNY" and "Kyle vs Kyle." (He really jumped out to an early lead when he insisted on facing himself and wouldn't take 'no' for an answer).