Diffusion

Let's hope we're all so happy about the signings in 2008. When we're paying Howry, Eyre and Dempster a combined $13.3m. I guess the reason I'm most frustrated with Hendry isn't really that he spent all that money on relievers though. He definately overpaid, needlessly so (in that Eyre saw his offer and immediately took it without even trying to shop for a better deal, with that setting the market for Howry and just about every other reliever too), both in money and years. But when you look at just how good a Dempster, Howry, Eyre, Williamson, Wuertz, Novoa and Ohman bullpen is or would be if they put that together, maybe that can be justified. No, the big issue for me is that he didn't spend anything anywhere else besides the bullpen. Our lineup desperately needed and still needs just one more big bat, a guy to protect Lee and Ramirez and to compliment Walker, Barrett, Murton, Cedeno. The Cubs went into the offseason with two outfield vacancies. You'd have thought that at at least one of them, they could have done something. Instead we've ended up with Juan Pierre and Jacque Jones, who at a combined .252/.291/.403 through their first 152 plate appearances, have been even worse than I'd feared. I don't expect that'll last, and there is something to be said for Pierre's speed, but they were just never the answer and they never will be.

Dusty obviously doens't have the latest copy of Strategy and War and Different Things. Because I've read it and it mentions the Double Bluff.

Every contestant has a 1 in 1296 chance of winning then. And obviously, you have to be selected as a contestant first. The Chiefs have a 10 in 1296 chance of having to pay out. Really, what's the point?

Pujols was aiming at the umpire, but he missed.

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/03/pitchers_pitch_1.php

According to eye witness accounts, Young was walking away from the umpire, and then, without breaking his side, rotated himself about 360 degrees anti-clockwise just so as to underhand throw the bat at the umpire, then kept on walking without looking back. There's absolutely no way that it wasn't intentional. I don't even know why there's a debate about this. And it was definately an underhand throw as opposed to an underhand flip. This wasn't a player tossing his bat away after a home run or anything like that, which is just an effortless act, you basically just let go of the thing. Young put a bit of arm and wrist into this. Sure, he could have thrown it an awful lot harder, he's a big, big, strong guy, he clearly wasn't trying to kill him or anything, but it was more than just petulance. There was a little bit of anger and frustration involved. I don't think he was trying to hurt the umpire, no way, but then again I don't know what he was hoping to achieve by it. It was obviously very heat of the moment, not particularly calculated or cold-blooded, just stupid more than anything else. For what it's worth, which isn't much, it was a shocking called strike. The ball was at least six inches to a foot outside. Video from the Alcantara incident here... http://www.dmsjr.com/couchmedia/izzyfight.mpg Leaving aside the umpire element to things, that's a lot lot worse.

When Carl Everett head-butted an umpire he got a 10 game suspension. Roberto Alomar got 5 games for spitting at an umpire. Is this really that much worse?

Talk me through where Jerome Williams' trade value went...

Anyone got video of the catch that Sheehan references? It was either the 10th or 11th of June 1997, Angels at Royals.

But not me. Johnson can no longer get the ball up in the mid- to high-nineties, his slider flattens out, and his mechanics are a complete mess right now, which is probably both the cause and result of various injuries that are plaguing him, knee, shoulder, back. I'm not the biggest Andy Pettitte fan, not at all, but I feel entirely comfortable definitively picking him over the Big Unit. Johnson carries all of the risk and very little extra upside. But you're absolutely correct that it doesn't matter as long as Oswalt is such an enormous amount better than Mussina.

And according to the chart, we NEVER came back last year after 7 innings when trailing by 3 runs or more.... Of course, we never faced such a depleted team last year either... So, Fred, when was the last time the Cubs came back after 7 innings when trailing by 3 runs or more...?

That's easily the worst Joe Sheehan article I've ever read.

Not on your life.

Who else is hitting then? Berkman and Ensberg -- .387/.470/.847 in 132 PA Rest of the everyday starting lineup -- .270/.345/.403 in 359 PA Bench players -- .220/.281/.288 in 64 PA Pitchers - .143/.200/.143 in 30 PA Berkman and Ensberg are the only ones hitting, and how. And they're the reason that the Astros are 3rd in runs and average, no one else. Which is more, I don't think you can argue that any of the rest of the lineup with the exception of Jason Lane has underperformed. Meanwhile Adam Everett and Brad Ausmus have played well over their head. So, basically, when Berkman and Ensberg eventually can't keep this kind of pace up, the runs are very quickly going to dry up. And, for what it's worth, your hitting numbers are distorted by the hitter's ballpark that you play in, so comparing raw numbers like runs and batting average will always confer an advantage. As for your pitching, outside of Oswalt, Pettitte, Lidge and Wheeler, what's to like? And is your defence really that hot? The Astros so far have had a 5-2 homestand against the Marlins and Nationals (which is about as easy as it gets), a 3-2 roadtrip to San Francisco and Arizona (decent, but nothing to get excited about) and a 2-1 series hosting the Brewers (fair enough). No one should be crowning them runaway champions just because of that.

Cedeno has been relatively impressive so far. In the field he's shown good instincts, a quick first step, good hands, outstanding range, particularly to his left, lots of athleticism and a very strong arm. This throws though have at times been unaccurate, particularly when he doesn't have time on a play to set his feet. He needs to work on that. His communication with the rest of his infield, particularly on popups, also leaves quite a bit to be desired. He has to get used to the idea that though he's a rookie, as the shortstop he's in charge of the infield, and he needs to take control. But with the exception of those two complaints, his defence so far has been exceptional, and he's made a number of plays that Neifi definately wouldn't have been able to make. At the plate he's too impatient, more impatient than he was last year with the Cubs. Last year at least he didn't expand his zone much, which was a very encouraging sign. But this year Cedeno's combined his see it hit it approach within the zone - he doesn't take many called strikes at all - with a see it try anyway approach on anything that's even close. He's getting himself into a lot of pitcher's counts like that and he's not doing himself any favours. That said he's making contact at a seemingly good rate, though it's not always particularly good contact. He's had his fair share of bloops and infield hits. He's going to all fields, which is encouraging, but he hasn't yet shown quite the pop that he did last year, he's not really turning on the ball and really driving it. Instead his extra base hits have so far been more the result of his terrific speed and just how aggressive he is on the bases, stretching singles into doubles and doubles into triples. That's great, but if he could combine that with some legitimate extra base hits, balls to the wall or out of the park, that would be better. That and the size of his strike zone and his swing-happy ways are what he needs to work on at the plate. So he's been on the whole very good so far, but his game isn't without some pretty serious limitations at this point. Obviously I'm willing to give him a free pass on them because he is a rookie, but he needs to work on them pretty hard if he's going to become a good major league player. Right now, he's not, regardless of what his batting line says. Still, Neifi Perez is no better, and the best way to learn to play in the major leagues, if the minors have done all they can, is to play in the major leagues. When he starts to struggle, and he will, Baker needs to give him a full vote of confidence and continue to run him out there everyday.

Pierre Hairston Ramirez That big RF bat I said we should get at almost all costs over the winter Walker Barrett Murton Cedeno Oh, we didn't get that big RF bat. Erm, scratch that then. Jacque Jones is killing this team.

Well have to agree to disagree. I think putting that much more stock in him over numerous other star-caliber prospects because of 16 spring training plate appearances is foolish at best. Dude, your missing the point. If they offered Justin for Carlos Beltran, the Mets would be stupid not to take it. This is about value, and players like Justin Upton are too rare to pass up. I don't know about that. I think Beltran's a bad example, because he's a really quality player, and I agree with the list that, ignoring the money for a minute, his value and Justin Upton's are pretty similar. I think you could definately make a very solid case for the Mets not being stupid if they didn't make that trade. Of course, if you involve what's left of Beltran's $119m/7yr deal in things and have that going to Arizona with him, then, yes, the Mets would obviously be absolutely bonkers to not take the chance to get out from under the commitment. Not because Beltran's not a very fine player, not because he'll not improve upon last year, but rather because his is a contract you can't justify giving to anyone in the game with the possible exception of Albert Pujols.

Why? Top prospect? Yes. One of the most 50 valuable players in baseball? No way any 18 year old right out of high school just getting his first sniff of the minors qualifies to be listed as one of the most valuable players in the game. That's absurd. Upton is the only one I listed, but that was only he was the most extreme case, as he's had the least professional experience. His rating is based purely on ceiling and not at all on past performance or current ability. We all know how rarely someone like that pans out. To be fair, I could have put in the time to throw all of the prospects out there, my excluding them shouldn't imply that I think Upton is a future flop or overrated. I think you'll find there's absolutely nothing wrong with his current ability whatsoever. And his rating is based as much on that as it is on his ceiling, which is superstar. Yes, he has very little professional experience, so he doesn't have the numbers to back up his talent right now, outside of his hugely impressive 16 PA stint with the Diamondbacks in major league spring training, as an 18 year old, in his first ever proper games, but the kid is something special right now. Right now. Not maybe five years down the line if this and that works out for him, but right now. There's no chance that the kid is going to do anything for any major league team this year. Nada. Right now, he's another superstar prospect with a loooong way to go before he reaches the bigs, and he's got just as much of a chance of flaming out as the myriads of others similar to him that have before. He's a great prospect, but again, not one of the 50 most valuable in the game. Just because the Diamondbacks probably aren't going to have him see the majors this year doesn't mean that he couldn't handle it. Upton's bat really isn't that far from being ready, and he could probably hold his own in the majors right now, not dominate but at least not look hopelessly overmatched. But the Diamondbacks have nothing to gain from having him up, because they don't have the pitching to be competitive, so moving him too quickly through the system would be pointless - they don't need him at the major league level, and you don't want to needlessly burn service time on a player this young. Then there's Upton's defence. He's moved positions, from SS to CF, so he'll need to learn the new position, better than he does that on the farm. The bottom line - Upton for a high school hitter is ridiculously polished, and the fact that he's young and starting the year in the low minors shouldn't be confused with him being a long way away at all. He's not, not in terms of how much development he's got in front of him. Well have to agree to disagree. I think putting that much more stock in him over numerous other star-caliber prospects because of 16 spring training plate appearances is foolish at best. Yes, because that's really what I'm doing. The only thing you've provided that differentiates him from other superstar prospects is his "hugely impressive 16 PA stint in ST." If he were to come up now, he'd get chewed up and made to look stupid. That is, of course, unless he's facing Glendon Rusch.... And which other superstar prospects are these that I've been differentiating him from? That's exactly the point. There aren't any other superstar prospects on the position player side of things besides Delmon Young and possibly BJ Upton, depending on what happens with his defence. And he's a superstar prospect not because of his 16 PA in ST, nice though they were, but because of his natural ability, tools etc. That Upton has no professional baseball experience doesn't change the fact that he's ridiculously polished for an 18-year old, with lightning bat speed, excellent plate discipline, good power with considerable potential for more, that he's 3.1 seconds to first base, has a very strong arm, and so on and so on. He's a six-tool all-round package, ahead of his brother at the same age, and the Diamondbacks are already fast-tracking him. At what stage does it not matter that he hasn't already mashed some low-level minor league pitchers?

I'll take Prior's 03 over Halladay's. And Halladay's three and a half years older than Prior, and since he too likes taking fielding ferocious line drives with his limbs, is I guess every bit the injury risk Prior is.

Why? Top prospect? Yes. One of the most 50 valuable players in baseball? No way any 18 year old right out of high school just getting his first sniff of the minors qualifies to be listed as one of the most valuable players in the game. That's absurd. Upton is the only one I listed, but that was only he was the most extreme case, as he's had the least professional experience. His rating is based purely on ceiling and not at all on past performance or current ability. We all know how rarely someone like that pans out. To be fair, I could have put in the time to throw all of the prospects out there, my excluding them shouldn't imply that I think Upton is a future flop or overrated. I think you'll find there's absolutely nothing wrong with his current ability whatsoever. And his rating is based as much on that as it is on his ceiling, which is superstar. Yes, he has very little professional experience, so he doesn't have the numbers to back up his talent right now, outside of his hugely impressive 16 PA stint with the Diamondbacks in major league spring training, as an 18 year old, in his first ever proper games, but the kid is something special right now. Right now. Not maybe five years down the line if this and that works out for him, but right now. There's no chance that the kid is going to do anything for any major league team this year. Nada. Right now, he's another superstar prospect with a loooong way to go before he reaches the bigs, and he's got just as much of a chance of flaming out as the myriads of others similar to him that have before. He's a great prospect, but again, not one of the 50 most valuable in the game. Just because the Diamondbacks probably aren't going to have him see the majors this year doesn't mean that he couldn't handle it. Upton's bat really isn't that far from being ready, and he could probably hold his own in the majors right now, not dominate but at least not look hopelessly overmatched. But the Diamondbacks have nothing to gain from having him up, because they don't have the pitching to be competitive, so moving him too quickly through the system would be pointless - they don't need him at the major league level, and you don't want to needlessly burn service time on a player this young. Then there's Upton's defence. He's moved positions, from SS to CF, so he'll need to learn the new position, better than he does that on the farm. The bottom line - Upton for a high school hitter is ridiculously polished, and the fact that he's young and starting the year in the low minors shouldn't be confused with him being a long way away at all. He's not, not in terms of how much development he's got in front of him. Well have to agree to disagree. I think putting that much more stock in him over numerous other star-caliber prospects because of 16 spring training plate appearances is foolish at best. Yes, because that's really what I'm doing.

Leaving aside what I think about your list, we're not talking about who the best pitcher is right now. We're talking about who, if you're a major league ballclub, are the most valuable pitchers to own. That involves the short-term and the long-term and everything else in between. And all I've said is that, when healthy (long enough to get into a groove, I should have added), Mark Prior is one of the top three starting pitchers in the game period (yes, Rocket, my top three is Santana, Peavy and Prior), and that the health "risk" involved with him is nowhere near great enough to justify bumping him off a list of the game's 50 best assets. If you want to debate that you're going to either come up with an argument that there are many more pitchers better than him when he's at his best, or an argument that he's such an injury risk that that's irrelevant. A list of pitchers that had good years last year doesn't achieve either.

Why? Top prospect? Yes. One of the most 50 valuable players in baseball? No way any 18 year old right out of high school just getting his first sniff of the minors qualifies to be listed as one of the most valuable players in the game. That's absurd. Upton is the only one I listed, but that was only he was the most extreme case, as he's had the least professional experience. His rating is based purely on ceiling and not at all on past performance or current ability. We all know how rarely someone like that pans out. To be fair, I could have put in the time to throw all of the prospects out there, my excluding them shouldn't imply that I think Upton is a future flop or overrated. I think you'll find there's absolutely nothing wrong with his current ability whatsoever. And his rating is based as much on that as it is on his ceiling, which is superstar. Yes, he has very little professional experience, so he doesn't have the numbers to back up his talent right now, outside of his hugely impressive 16 PA stint with the Diamondbacks in major league spring training, as an 18 year old, in his first ever proper games, but the kid is something special right now. Right now. Not maybe five years down the line if this and that works out for him, but right now. There's no chance that the kid is going to do anything for any major league team this year. Nada. Right now, he's another superstar prospect with a loooong way to go before he reaches the bigs, and he's got just as much of a chance of flaming out as the myriads of others similar to him that have before. He's a great prospect, but again, not one of the 50 most valuable in the game. Just because the Diamondbacks probably aren't going to have him see the majors this year doesn't mean that he couldn't handle it. Upton's bat really isn't that far from being ready, and he could probably hold his own in the majors right now, not dominate but at least not look hopelessly overmatched. But the Diamondbacks have nothing to gain from having him up, because they don't have the pitching to be competitive, so moving him too quickly through the system would be pointless - they don't need him at the major league level, and you don't want to needlessly burn service time on a player this young. Then there's Upton's defence. He's moved positions, from SS to CF, so he'll need to learn the new position, better than he does that on the farm. The bottom line - Upton for a high school hitter is ridiculously polished, and the fact that he's young and starting the year in the low minors shouldn't be confused with him being a long way away at all. He's not, not in terms of how much development he's got in front of him.

But when you consider how much money they are bringing in, it's only fair to them that they have high salaries. Remember that baseball is a business. Nobody comes to the park to see the owners, they come to see the players. I spent several years with a Fortune 100 company as a project manager and could easily quantify how much money I saved or made the company. Many of them over the years were in the millions, and one topped out at $27 million. My salary was $48,000. Baseball players are overpaid. Bad luck that the Player's Union didn't have your back.

I completely disagree, but that's fine. Who's better?

Why? Top prospect? Yes. One of the most 50 valuable players in baseball? No way any 18 year old right out of high school just getting his first sniff of the minors qualifies to be listed as one of the most valuable players in the game. That's absurd. Upton is the only one I listed, but that was only he was the most extreme case, as he's had the least professional experience. His rating is based purely on ceiling and not at all on past performance or current ability. We all know how rarely someone like that pans out. To be fair, I could have put in the time to throw all of the prospects out there, my excluding them shouldn't imply that I think Upton is a future flop or overrated. I think you'll find there's absolutely nothing wrong with his current ability whatsoever. And his rating is based as much on that as it is on his ceiling, which is superstar. Yes, he has very little professional experience, so he doesn't have the numbers to back up his talent right now, outside of his hugely impressive 16 PA stint with the Diamondbacks in major league spring training, as an 18 year old, in his first ever proper games, but the kid is something special right now. Right now. Not maybe five years down the line if this and that works out for him, but right now.