What Does the Future Hold for Brennen Davis?

Before the 2022 season, outfielder Brennen Davis was a consensus top-30 prospect in baseball: Baseball America had him ranked 16th, MLB Pipeline placed him in 15th, and Baseball Prospectus put him all the way down at 27th. At the time, he was coming off a tremendous 2021 season in which he ascended three levels of minor league ball, finishing with a 16-game cup of coffee at Triple-A Iowa, where he posted a .933 OPS.

Since then, you know the story. Due to a combination of underwhelming performance and mostly injuries, Davis has been stuck in Triple-A over the last couple of seasons, falling off most top prospect lists around the mid-way point of last season. In 2022, the outfielder slashed a paltry .180/.299/.298 across 178 at-bats. 2023 wasn’t any better, as he put up a nearly identical .604 OPS in 293 plate appearances.

Coming into this season, expectations for Davis had all but vacated the minds of Cubs’ fans. Despite being just 24 years old, the arrival and emergence of other outfield prospects like Pete Crow-Armstrong, Owen Caissie, and Kevin Alcantara (and, to a lesser extent, guys like Alexander Canario and the now-departed Nelson Velazquez) has pushed Davis to the backburner. With Seiya Suzuki entrenched in right field for the next three seasons and Ian Happ following suit in left field, only center field has a reasonable opening in the short-term future, assuming Cody Bellinger opts out of his contract or eventually transitions to first base full-time. Having just one outfield spot and possibly one designated hitter spot for all those prospects is untenable, especially when PCA’s otherworldly defense in center makes him a virtual guarantee to take over the position.

Of course, baseball can surprise even the most astute observers. Over his last two weeks of playing, Davis has put up the following slash line: .452/.605/1.161/315 wRC+. Thus, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, Davis has been 215% better than the average Triple-A hitter since early May. It’s hard to quantify what a figure that large means, but suffice to say, Davis is ON FIRE.

Our @Seth Stohs interviewed Alex Cohen, the voice of the Iowa Cubs, during the midst of that hot streak, where Cohen claimed that Davis merely needed to continue performing at an above-average clip to catch the front office's attention. Though he’s no longer the five-tool star his older prospect days promised (his average sprint speed nowadays is 26.9 feet per second, a bit below average), his bat is still clearly above average when healthy. Even though this kind of hot streak won’t last forever, Davis is more than capable of being a productive, above-average hitter - something the major league squad desperately needs right now.

So then, why isn’t Davis being considered for a major league promotion, at least publicly? Naturally, it’s the injury bug again. Davis has missed the last few games after being pulled in the middle of the Iowa Cubs’ May 22 affair, and it’s unclear when he will return. He’s reportedly day-to-day for now, but anytime an injury is mentioned in conjunction with Davis, it’s hard to feel confident.

Since 2022, Davis has missed time with an HBP-induced broken finger, a pair of concussions, hamstring issues, and nagging back injuries that stem from genetic vascular malformation. He already missed time earlier this year with the second concussion after being hit in the head with an errant pitch in Spring Training. Whether by fluke or just good old-fashioned injury proneness, the outfielder can’t seem to stay healthy for any reasonable amount of time.

And that’s where this conversation will continue to rest, for now. If he can finally move past the physical toll of playing professional baseball, Davis has a good enough bat to justify serious playing time in the big leagues. If not… well, we already know what will happen. It’s been happening for the last couple of years.

Davis’ story isn’t a novel one. Talented players with tremendous raw gifts have been stopped by the breakdown of their bodies since the dawn of professional sports. To be truly special, Davis must overcome his fragility and bad luck and continue to be a star at the dish.

Interested in learning more about the Chicago Cubs' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!