Trading Samardzija And/Or Hammel, Part 3

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In Part 1 and Part 2, I looked a the deadline trade deals over the past two years of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement. In this article, let's rank those trades and one winter deal by applicability to each of Samardizja and Hammel's situation to see what the past tells us to expect.

First, Shark:

Samardzija has ace stuff and ace results this year, but a mixed bag of results throughout his career. He's a bit old for being in this position at 29.5 years old by the time the deadline comes around. Critically in the Cubs favor is that he still has another year of control remaining. In other words, the Cubs don't have to trade him at this point.

Of the 12 deals from the previous two summers, only Maholm, Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris and Jake Peavy had more than three months of control remaining when dealt. At this point in their careers, none of those pitchers is comparable to Samardzija in terms of stuff or front-line potential. Out of all these deals, the best return was probably for Peavy. Avisail Garcia is not a huge prospect, but he can fill a role in the OF on a contending team. At the time of the trade, Vizcaino was a very solid return for a mid- to bottom of the rotation pitcher like Maholm. The salary dumps of Bud and Wandy are not very applicable here.

Greinke is also an interesting comparison, even though he did not have the extra year of control remaining. There is no question that he has had more value as a pitcher than Samardzija. But the extra year of control should balance out the difference in talent/results. Getting a potential all-star shortstop for six years in return for a few months of Greinke sets a good precedent for negotiations when dealing Shark.

As pointed out previously, the most hopeful precedent for the Cubs to point to actually happened after the 2012 season. That winter, the Rays traded James Shields and Wade Davis (plus fluff) for Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery. That is a huge haul in talented players that were ready to be plugged into a lineup for a contending team, including one of the very best prospects in the game in Myers. The move by KC to acquire the pitchers was instantly panned in the press as an overpay. I certainly do not expect the Cubs to be able to replicate the success Tampa had in finding such a willing trade partner. But it does highlight that it only takes one desperate team to get a truly great return.

Now, Hammel:

The trick here is to find teams that will properly value the "hidden" quality of Hammel's career. As you can see in the table below, his ERA this year looks like a surprise compared to his career marks.

Year

ERA

WAR

Innings

2007

6.14

0.4

85.0

2008

4.60

-0.2

78.1

2009

4.33

3.7

176.2

2010

4.81

3.8

177.2

2011

4.76

1.4

170.1

2012

3.43

2.6

118.0

2013

4.97

0.7

139.1

2014

2.81

1.8

83.1

He has had only one other year with an ERA under 4.33. However, he has pitched in some ballparks that were big offensive parks in Colorado and Baltimore. He has also been "unlucky" in his results - his peripherals (strikeouts, walks, HR allowed) suggest that he has been a much better pitcher than his ERA would show. That is reflected in his WAR (Wins Above Replacement) values being very good for the number of innings he has pitched each year.

What the Cubs are trying to sell this summer is a pitcher who has nearly elite results in 2014 with excellent stuff who is finally healthy after many bouts with injury. What the buyers are going to say is that he's never - ever - stayed healthy enough to pitch 200 IP in a season and cannot be counted upon as a result. They will also say that he has consistently underperformed his peripherals and very well could do so the remainder of this season.

Looking at the deals over the past few years, the comparison the Cubs will try to make to anchor the return will be Matt Garza. Garza was more durable than Hammel for parts of his career but was injured the year prior and had more pressing injury concerns the year of the trade than Hammel. Neither pitcher had ERA's that were viewed as commensurate with their raw stuff.

The buying teams will likely counter with the precedents set by deals for Dempster, Nolasco or Ian Kennedy. All of those deals come with caveats: Dempster boxed the Cubs in for where he would go, Nolasco was a Miami salary dump and Kennedy was awful the year of the trade.

As above, all it takes is one desperate team to buy into the 2014 performance and health for Hammel combined with his career value being better measure by advanced metrics instead of ERA.

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