TRADE: Chicago Cubs Acquire Relief Ace Ryan Pressly in Deal With Astros

The Houston Astros signed Josh Hader last offseason, displacing Ryan Pressly from his longtime role as their closer. Now, Pressly becomes the prospective closer for the Cubs, after the teams agreed to a deal Friday to send Pressly to the Cubs. Pressly agreed to waive his no-trade clause Sunday, allowing the deal to become official.

Pressly, 36, is owed $14 million in 2025, the vested option year of an extension he signed with Houston in April 2022. He has 112 career saves, most of them coming from 2020-23, when he served as the closer for the Astros. From 2018-22, he was one of the most dominant relievers in baseball, with a 33.6% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate, and .572 opponent OPS. Those numbers took sharp turns in the wrong direction in 2023 and 2024, as he's posted a 25.8% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and .668 opponent OPS. Nonetheless, he's a clearly above-average short-burst reliever.

I wrote about the possibility that the Cubs would target Pressly as part of the Kyle Tucker trade in mid-December, describing his drop in velocity and declining peripherals in the process, but the conclusion drawn then holds now: Pressly's unusually deep arsenal sets a high floor for his performance and should permit him to keep getting hitters out, despite his inability to overpower them the way he did a few years ago.

The Cubs are taking on most of the salary owed to Pressly in this deal, which is the bulk of the value the Astros get out of it. Clearing Pressly's money will allow them to get more serious in their pursuit of a reunion with Alex Bregman, while landing Pressly checks arguably the top box left on Jed Hoyer's winter checklist. Pressly will be the team's presumptive closer heading into spring training, with Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller, Nate Pearson, Caleb Thielbar and Eli Morgan in support of him. None of those six pitchers were on the big-league roster on Opening Day 2024, and the Cubs might not be done adding to their pen, either.

Pressly's steep overhand arm slot has always given him good carry on his fastball, but (as many high-slot pitchers do, especially relievers in their mid-30s) he's had a hard time sustaining that recently. The heat has lost a tick or two, and it's also lost some ride. At the same time, his sharp curveball has lost some of its depth, making both pitches less likely to induce whiffs.

On the other hand, Pressly continues to have cutting action on his fastball, and the addition of the changeup and sinker to his repertoire has kept batters off-balance. He's not Héctor Neris redux, despite the similar age and the common thread of coming from Houston. Pressly is still capable of filling up the strike zone and mixing things up enough to age gracefully.

Because Texas does not levy state income taxes, Pressly will get more money added to his salary to make up for what he stands to lose by playing for the Cubs and paying Illinois taxes. He'll also have his no-trade clause reinstated, so that (in the unlikely event that the team is in sell mode come July and wants to move him ahead of the trade deadline) he can continue to control where and for whom he pitches. One reason why the Astros are including money in the trade is to offset the increased financial obligations and the flexibility shortfall the trade brings for the Cubs, although those conditions are not especially problematic for Chicago. Houston will get a prospect in the deal, still unnamed publicly, but the cost will not be steep for the Cubs. Pressly has real value, despite his contractual status, but won't return a top talent for Houston.

Indeed, it looks like 20-year-old righthander Juan Bello will be part of the return. Bello pitched for Low-A Myrtle Beach in 2024 and put up a solid 3.21 ERA, with a 25% strikeout rate. He's not without promise, but nor is he viewed as one of the team's better prospects. He's a slender Colombian who signed just shy of his 18th birthday in early 2022, and while he possesses a plausibly MLB-caliber four-pitch mix, there aren't yet any signs that he will take off and become a frontline starter.

Bello's was not the first name I heard the Cubs might include in this deal, so we'll have to wait to see whether he will be the full return or not. The trade changed slightly in structure once it became clear that Pressly would waive his no-trade clause only if he could be further compensated, forcing the teams to alter their plan for moving money from Houston to Chicago.