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    The Cubs and Pete Crow-Armstrong Might Be Facing a (Good) Dilemma

    Brandon Glick

    By Brandon Glick

    The Cubs are closing in on a playoff spot. The Cubs have one of the top prospects in all of baseball, and he’s at Triple A. A decision looms.

    Image courtesy of Lily Smith/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK

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    Pete Crow-Armstrong is the top prospect in the Chicago Cubs’ farm system, and a consensus top-10 prospect in all of baseball. He’s the most highly-regarded prospect the Cubs have had since the days of Kris Bryant and Javier Baez (for whom he was acquired), and seems destined to be the man who patrols center field at Wrigley for the next decade-plus. 

    If you’ve been keeping up with scouting reports at all since the Cubs acquired him during the 2021 Trade Deadline Fire Sale, you know PCA’s calling cards: defense and speed. According to MLB.com’s scouting report (which merely corroborates the universal notion on PCA), Crow-Armstrong has true, top-of-the-scale 80-grade defense, and he receives similarly high marks for his speed and aggressiveness on the base paths. 

    The 2023 Cubs are looking to make some noise in these final two months, indicated by their surprising deadline approach of buying the top rental bat on the market in Jeimer Candelario (and controllable reliever José Cuas). They’re clearly serious about each and every roster spot—a fact highlighted by their willingness to designate Trey Mancini for assignment and swallow the remaining $10 million or so on his contract. So, assuming the Cubs remain competitive throughout August, would they actually consider using one of the two extra roster spots on their top prospect?

    The last Cubs teams that were competitive certainly would have made a case for it. Before that core fell apart and was shipped off for the prospects that will define the next era of Cubs baseball, the team had an affinity for using that last roster spot on elite speed and/or defensive threats who could be used as valuable late-game substitutions. (Remember Leonys Martin in 2017, or Terrance Gore in 2018?) Crow-Armstrong fits both mini-role descriptions, and it’s almost certain his bat would already be more playable than any of the other pinch-runners and defensive subs they’ve thrown out there in the past. 

    However, there’s also water to throw on this fire. Crow-Armstrong doesn’t need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason for Rule 5 protection, meaning that the Cubs can wait to do so until after the offseason to maintain maximum flexibility for their signings, trades and other prospect maneuvers over the winter. Moreover, he was only added to the Triple-A Iowa Cubs roster this week. It may be best for his development (and in the same vein, the future of the Cubs) to use this last month of the minor-league season to figure out what he needs to work on over the offseason to show up to 2024 Spring Training ready to compete for the center field job, rather than worrying about providing marginal value to a big-league team in the heat of a playoff push. All of that fails to mention that if the Cubs don’t add Crow-Armstrong with one of the two extra roster spots that now constitute September call-ups, they can add another prospect banging on the door of the Major Leagues. (Luis Vasquez, Yonathan Perlaza, or Matt Mervis, anyone?)

    It’s probably also worth noting that this Cubs team is pretty well-equipped in center field already. Cody Bellinger is having a monstrous comeback season, and is on the heels of winning National League Player of the Month in July. He’s an elite bat and defender out in center, and if Candelario is really going to take over first base full-time down the stretch, the need for Crow-Armstrong is probably mitigated.

    Alas, there are different schools of thought to be applied here. There may be no player in the entire Cubs organization right now better-equipped to help this team at the margins, which becomes amplified as every game starts to mean that much more in the playoff race. But, Crow-Armstrong is still just 21 years old, and only two years removed from a major shoulder surgery that cost him virtually the entire 2021 season. 

    Where the Cubs’ season goes from here may ultimately answer the question on its own. If they remain competitive in the heat of the Wild Card and division race, perhaps Crow-Armstrong earns his cup of coffee in the big leagues. If the club falls out of it (or, alternatively and however improbably, if they run away with and lock up a playoff spot early), he’ll probably remain in the minors until next season. Regardless, it speaks volumes to the success of this campaign—both for Crow-Armstrong and for the Cubs, as a team—that this is a discussion we’ll be having for the foreseeable future. 

    Writer | Director | Author

    Short Film: Path of Two Minds
    Novel: The Great, Horrible Tragedy

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    Featured Comments

    Transmogrified Tiger

    Transmogrified Tiger 2,745

    Posted

    If the Cubs want to win more and lose less in 2023, they should probably not play PCA instead of Seiya.  PCA is a really good prospect, I think he's gonna be a good player for a number of years.  He is not going to be a good major league player tomorrow, and it does a disservice to go through this cycle where we repeatedly don't recognize the difficulty and more importantly the *time* it takes to make the leap from AAA to MLB.  The Cubs could call up a left handed bat with OF experience that's hitting .296/.450/.480 with a near 1:1 BB/K ratio, that's stealing bases at a clip of 28 SB per 500 PA at a 100% success rate.  They aren't doing that because that's Miles Mastrobuoni, and while AAA performance isn't gospel(see: Tauchman), we should pay closer attention to how close it is between the players we hope are future stars(PCA, Mervis) and the players we also see as MLB flotsam(Mastrobuoni, Madrigal)

     

    • Like 2
    Brandon Glick

    Brandon Glick 159

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Derek_Lee_Truther said:

    Cubs need to be tired of losing. This team hasn't been a real contender since 17.

    Prove to the players and fans that you want to win. Stash seiya on the IL and bring up PCA. Do something to show that this team is for real.

    Tiger nailed it (again) - you just don't know if PCA will be as great in the majors as he has been in the minor leagues. It's a massive jump between the two levels. Again, I'm on team "bring him up", but more so as a specialist. There's no need to force him to be an everyday starter right now. 

    Rob

    Rob 1,012

    Posted

    56 minutes ago, Brandon Glick said:

    Tiger nailed it (again) - you just don't know if PCA will be as great in the majors as he has been in the minor leagues. It's a massive jump between the two levels. Again, I'm on team "bring him up", but more so as a specialist. There's no need to force him to be an everyday starter right now. 

    TT's opinions always slap. I always feel better about my hot takes when I find out they mirror his own.

    That said, there's been a lot of debate in the last decade or so about just how much time some of these guys may need to adjust. There was a short period where the true top prospects were coming up pretty young and playing pretty incredibly regardless. We had one of the biggest data points for that in Kris Bryant.

    Prospects have generally come back down to earth since then and do seem to require more of an adjustment period than was the case for that brief moment in time. But it's a terribly inexact science, and may be worth examining further.

    That said, about the only production I'm reasonably certain PCA would provide over Mastrobuoni would be on defense. If we had a bunch of butchers in the field, I'd be first in line saying he should get the call. But plugging him in CF as a late-inning replacement and shuffling people around is going to provide a marginal upgrade at best. Odds are good Mastrobuoni would make up that difference with the bat in the short-term. Given their roughly equivalent short-term production, I'd just as soon not call him up yet and force some difficult roster decisions.

    That said, if he is called up I'd be excited as hell.

    Brandon Glick

    Brandon Glick 159

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Rob said:

    TT's opinions always slap. I always feel better about my hot takes when I find out they mirror his own.

    That said, there's been a lot of debate in the last decade or so about just how much time some of these guys may need to adjust. There was a short period where the true top prospects were coming up pretty young and playing pretty incredibly regardless. We had one of the biggest data points for that in Kris Bryant.

    Prospects have generally come back down to earth since then and do seem to require more of an adjustment period than was the case for that brief moment in time. But it's a terribly inexact science, and may be worth examining further.

    That said, about the only production I'm reasonably certain PCA would provide over Mastrobuoni would be on defense. If we had a bunch of butchers in the field, I'd be first in line saying he should get the call. But plugging him in CF as a late-inning replacement and shuffling people around is going to provide a marginal upgrade at best. Odds are good Mastrobuoni would make up that difference with the bat in the short-term. Given their roughly equivalent short-term production, I'd just as soon not call him up yet and force some difficult roster decisions.

    That said, if he is called up I'd be excited as hell.

    I absolutely agree that, in the very short-term, Mastrobuoni may be the better call. Especially since he's a little more versatile defensively. 

    But unless you really, truly believe this Cubs team is at (at the very least) a contender to get to the NLCS, and Mastro's bat is the difference between getting there and not, I don't think calling him up to keep PCA down is in the team's best long-term interest. There is legitimate, non-zero value in bringing a guy up for the famous "cup of coffee" in September to allow him to see what the best guys in the majors do, and apply that to a full offseason of prep. 

    That being said, you can absolutely make the case that the extra roster spot over the offseason is more valuable than PCA getting big league exposure BECAUSE he's already pro-ready. If he was a rawer prospect, I'd actually argue more for him to come up and get the chance to really see what it'll take to succeed at the highest level. 

    Derek_Lee_Truther

    Derek_Lee_Truther 18

    Posted

    You can't tell me PCA isn't one of the 5 best outfielders this team has. You can't. 

    Play your best players. Have him as a backup. But he should be with the cubs.

    Brandon Glick

    Brandon Glick 159

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Derek_Lee_Truther said:

    You can't tell me PCA isn't one of the 5 best outfielders this team has. You can't. 

    Play your best players. Have him as a backup. But he should be with the cubs.

    I'm generally in agreement with this sentiment, as I've said. It's just worth pointing out that there are considerations the front office has, which includes limited roster spots, playing time, etc. 



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