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After a long offseason of speculation, the Milwaukee Brewers shipped Freddy Peralta to Queens, along with solid depth in Tobias Myers, for a pair of top prospects. The Brewers are looking to thread the needle and come out on top of this deal to remain competitive in 2026, while also adding value to their roster for years to come. They’ve been successful at this exact maneuver in the past, but this type of deal brings significant risk. The kind of risk the Chicago Cubs have no reason to take on themselves.
It’s hard to be disappointed with the Cubs' offseason so far. If anything, their biggest remaining question is how to fit some roster pieces together to maximize value. The Alex Bregman signing created a logjam in the infield, particularly between Matt Shaw and Nico Hoerner. With the latter set to hit free agency after 2026, there has been some discussion among fans regarding shopping Hoerner to shore up the roster elsewhere. The Cubs should avoid doing so.
For starters, Hoerner is simply an extremely valuable player. Though he’s failed to reach even 10% above-league-average offense by wRC+ in any season of his career, his value is apparent when watching him. His on-base ability and baserunning prowess would complement any competitive lineup. His defense is elite, especially when being asked to play second base instead of shortstop. These skills more than make up for his lack of a high-end offensive ceiling.
It's also worth point out that Hoerner’s skill set, while valuable, is unlikely to deliver a return anywhere near what Freddy Peralta brought to Milwaukee. In Brandon Sproat, the Brewers received an immediate contributor to the rotation, as well as top-100 prospect Jett Williams, as the Mets were desperate to acquire a high-end starting pitcher to lead their rotation. Any team acquiring Hoerner would be looking to add a complementary player to its roster rather than a core lineup piece (barring an immediate extension after the fact).
Losing Hoerner may not have the same impact on the Cubs as losing their ace could potentially have on the Brewers' roster, but facing the prospect of a lower payoff both for the current roster and for the future, the risk-reward analysis simply doesn’t seem worth the gamble. Whatever the Cubs can get in return may have a cleaner fit on the roster with Matt Shaw taking over second base, but that package is likely to be outweighed by the value of simply having Hoerner on the roster with Shaw available as a utility player.
The Cubs also don’t need to operate the same way as the Brewers. Though worth criticizing their spending tactics at times, even the worst years in recent Cubs history pale in comparison to how the Brewers operate their payroll. Trading Freddy Peralta, even for this generous return, is simply not a risk a competitive team takes without the pressure of having to turn over every last potential avenue of value. Milwaukee likely saw no chance of retaining Peralta when he hit free agency next winter. They are also very unlikely to be able to afford an immediate external replacement upon his departure.
The Cubs should feel very differently about Nico Hoerner. With little long-term money on the books beyond 2026, the Cubs can feel confident in their ability to replace Hoerner should he depart in 2027, or simply re-sign him if they determine it to be the best path forward. They also no longer have significant concerns on their roster after this offseason's impact additions to the lineup, bullpen, and rotation. Trading a valuable player like Hoerner to address another position that isn’t a significant need doesn’t make much sense.
The front office should be proud of the offseason they’ve put together, and fans should be pleased with the roster they’ll be watching headed into 2026. The Brewers are worth commending for their creativity and willingness to take risks, but the Cubs don’t need to operate in the same way to build a successful ballclub. The Cubs should hold onto their depth and keep Nico Hoerner.
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