Michael Conforto's Advanced Metrics, and How He Can Help the Cubs Without Saving Them

The Chicago Cubs added veteran outfielder Michael Conforto on a minor-league deal on Monday, and made it official Thursday, after Conforto passed a physical. On the surface, it’s the kind of move that barely nudges the offseason needle. Dig a little deeper, though, and you can see the outline of something more useful than a random spring invite.

The timing matters. Moisés Ballesteros only reported to camp Sunday, after visa issues delayed his arrival. Tyler Austin is shelved for months with a knee injury. The outfield group is deep, but it’s not entirely safe from an injury-driven crisis. For a veteran with Conforto’s résumé, that opens a door. He’ll have to earn it, but a strong spring could make this interesting in a hurry.

Better Than the Numbers?

Last year with the Dodgers, Conforto posted an 83 wRC+ across 486 plate appearances. That’s below average, especially for a player with limited defensive value. His .199/.305/.333 line and 12 home runs didn’t exactly scream impact bat.

Under the hood, however, he still demonstrated serious talent. He finished with a .287 wOBA, but his expected wOBA was .330. That -.043 gap was the second-largest in baseball among hitters who had significant playing time, trailing only Salvador Perez. In plain English: the quality of contact and the plate discipline suggested a hitter who deserved far better than what the box scores showed. It’s like hitting rockets all night in batting practice, and somehow, every one of them finds a glove once the lights come on.

Over time, that usually evens out. Conforto was, by the underlying metrics, one of the unluckiest hitters in 2025. Since we're talking about a hitter with a career 115 wRC+, there's certainly a chance for a bounce-back campaign.

Bat Speed Remains

He’s not the rookie who stormed onto the postseason stage in 2015. He’s not the middle-of-the-order force who mashed 88 home runs between 2017 and 2019. That version of Conforto lives in highlight reels now. But this isn’t a player running on fumes, either.

His average bat speed checked in at 74 mph last season, good for the 77th percentile. For someone who has dealt with his share of injuries, that’s significant. Bat speed is often one of the first things to fade. Conforto’s hasn’t. There’s still more thunder in there than the 12 homers suggest.

He also continues to control the strike zone well. He rarely chases pitches off the plate and draws plenty of walks. For a Cubs lineup already stocked with patient, disciplined hitters, that profile fits. He doesn’t need to swing out of his shoes. He just needs to stack quality at-bats, lengthen innings, and make pitchers work.

Professional. Competitive. Annoying to face.

The Defense, Though...

If there’s a real concern, it’s the defense. In 1,010 innings in left field last season, Conforto posted -5 Defensive Runs Saved. That’s not a blip. That’s a step back. He’s no longer the steady corner defender you pencil in without thinking.

Can he bounce back a bit? Perhaps. Players don’t usually fall off a defensive cliff overnight, without some contributing factors. But at this stage, he’s more playable than reliable in the field—and even that might be mitigated, if he continues a multi-year pattern of dealing with hamstring strains.

The good news for Chicago is that he wouldn’t be asked to play the field much, even if he makes the roster. He’d be insurance. If something happens to Ian Happ, Ballesteros, or Seiya Suzuki, Conforto gives them a left-handed bat with experience and composure. That matters over a long season.

The Cubs don’t need Conforto to carry anything. That’s what Pete Crow-Armstrong, Suzuki, Happ, Alex Bregman, and Michael Busch are there for. The heavy lifting is already assigned. Because Ballesteros, Austin and Jonathon Long have been set back by various issues, though, the aging slugger does have a potential role to play on a championship-hungry Cubs squad.

It’s still February. There’s time for timing to return, for the swing to sync up, for the numbers to start matching the contact. If the expected metrics tell the truth this time around, the Cubs may have quietly added more than just another jersey in the clubhouse.