Matthew Boyd Has A Clear Path Toward Postseason Relevance With Cubs

Matthew Boyd is no one’s definition of an ace. He has a career 4.52 ERA, with peripherals to match, and has topped out at 185 innings pitched in a single season. Teams don’t build their rotation around guys like Boyd, but they sure as hell appreciate them when they’re around. As such, the Chicago Cubs are going to need him in order to make a deep run in the postseason.

Of all the likely playoff teams, the Cubs’ pitching staff is maybe the single weakest unit; their bullpen has been bad and their starters not much better. While they were active at the trade deadline to bolster their rotation, you can only rebuild so much of a rotation on the fly. Kevin Gausman got homer-itis from Shota Imanaga, and trusting David Peterson and Clay Holmes doesn’t sound particularly enticing, which leaves Boyd as a clear-cut option for the playoff rotation.

Boyd is by no means a bad pitcher. Last season, over 179.2 innings, he pitched to a 3.21 ERA, 3.75 xERA, 3.65 FIP, and 4.22 xFIP. Just about every team in baseball would take that from their third starter. Unfortunately, 2026 has been a step back. His ERA and ERA estimators have all risen (4.06 ERA, 4.72 xERA, 4.28 FIP, and 4.30 xFIP), while his innings have decreased (119.2 innings). 

The good news is that the veteran southpaw has been far better as of late. Over his past five starts, he has a 3.77 ERA, 3.72 xERA, 2.96 FIP, and 3.77 xFIP. Those won’t win you a Cy Young, but they’re good enough to keep the Cubs’ potent offense in the game. 

Not much has changed for Boyd over the past month, save for one crucial component. Those long lists of ERA estimators are there for a reason, and not just for a word count. Last season, Boyd’s xFIP, which assumes a league-average home run rate on fly balls, was 4.22, and this season it’s 4.30. In many respects, Boyd has pitched about as well as he did last season, just with different home run luck. 

Over his past five starts, he once again has been hot in the home run department, posting a 4.2% HR/FB, but he has also done a better job keeping the ball out of the air. His flyball percentage of 30.4% is far better than the 39.3% he managed over his first 16 starts. 

The most pronounced change in his game has been an uptick in his changeup usage. Over his first 16 starts, he threw his changeup 25.8% of the time, but he has ramped its usage up to 33.3% recently. As he has leaned more heavily on his changeup, his fastball and slider have performed better as well. This is all in the realm of a small sample blip, but at least some dots are connecting. 

Realistically, Boyd’s best bet to help the Cubs make a deep playoff run is to keep the ball in the ballpark and let his excellent defense take care of the rest. Despite a solid walk rate (7.5%), he simply doesn’t strike out enough batters (18.9%) to survive the long ball. It’s not the sexiest postseason plan, but history is littered with magnificent pitching runs that followed it to a tee. 

Notable Low HR/FB & BABIP Playoff Runs

Matthew Boyd isn’t the ideal candidate to be a postseason ace, but as long as he can keep the ball in the yard, he’ll give himself and the Cubs a chance to make some noise. There’s no reason he couldn’t be 2026’s Jordan Montgomery, which could be exactly the kind of revelation that could elevate Chicago into the championship tier of contenders.

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