Is the Cubs’ Bullpen Good Enough for October?

The Chicago Cubs are less than a week away from playoff baseball. At this point in the season, you want to see your team playing at its peak level You want the things that have worked throughout the season to be clicking, and you certainly want to feel confident in the areas that are going to matter most in October.

Unfortunately for the Cubs, their bullpen isn't quite where it needs to be. Chicago's late-game pitching has been a hot topic of discussion all season, and even with the bullpen as healthy as it has been in some time, the North Siders still haven't gotten enough consistency from the group. Over the last month, they've converted just five of their 12 save opportunities. While not every high-leverage situation in the playoffs will come in the ninth inning, that number is indicative of a larger question surrounding the team's late-game pitching.

Jacob Webb is probably the biggest concern. Webb was brought in as more of a low-level, middle-relief option coming into the season, but injuries forced the Cubs to rely on him in much bigger situations. He's been their primary ninth-inning option for most of the season, but he's struggled mightily over the past month. He's sporting a 10.29 ERA during that span and hasn't recorded a save since Aug. 14, despite receiving plenty of opportunities to do so.

In fact, Webb has blown four saves since his last conversion, with the long ball playing a major role in his struggles. His changeup and slider, which are his two primary secondary offerings, have been hit extremely hard recently, while the swing-and-miss that made him so effective earlier in the season simply hasn't been there. For a team about to enter the postseason, that's a significant problem. Webb wasn't necessarily supposed to be one of the Cubs' premier high-leverage arms coming into the year, but they've needed him to fill that role, and his recent performance hasn't exactly inspired confidence.

The good news is that there are some positive developments elsewhere in the bullpen, starting with Daniel Palencia. The right-hander immediately struggled after returning from the injured list, allowing seven earned runs across just 4 1/3 innings, and more than half of the baserunners he's allowed since his return have come around to score. But he's looked like a completely different pitcher lately. In his last five outings, totaling 5 2/3 innings, he hasn't allowed a run or a hit. Even more impressively, he hasn't allowed a single baserunner over his last three appearances. His velocity and the shape of his fastball have also been improving, which is an extremely encouraging development for the Cubs. If Palencia can carry this recent stretch into October, he should be a major part of Craig Counsell's high-leverage plans.

He's not the only pitcher trending in the right direction, either. Ryan Rolison and Ryan Zeferjahn have both been getting better lately, while Aaron Civale and Colin Rea have also looked sharp recently. Civale, in particular, seems like someone who could have a bigger role in the playoffs than he did over the course of the regular season. This isn't a case of the entire Cubs bullpen suddenly becoming unusable. There are plenty of capable arms in the group, and some of them are actually pitching better as the postseason approaches. The bigger issue is whether the organization has enough reliable options to get through the biggest moments of a playoff series.

As a unit, the Cubs' bullpen ranks 19th among all 30 MLB teams with a 4.42 ERA over the last month. That's the worst mark among any National League playoff team, and the home run problem has been particularly glaring; Chicago's relievers have allowed 16 of them during that span. A team can survive giving up a couple of singles in an inning. A solo homer can change the complexion of a game, while a two- or three-run shot can erase an entire night's worth of work in one swing. And when you're heading into the postseason, you need to know who you can trust when those moments arrive.

That's where the Cubs still have some questions to answer. If this were happening in June, there would be plenty of time to figure things out. If it were happening in July, the Cubs could add another arm or simply wait for some of their pitchers to find their form again. There isn't much time left now. They're less than a week away from the Wild Card Round, and they'll soon be playing games where one bad inning can end their season.

The Cubs don't necessarily need their bullpen to become one of baseball's best overnight—they have the offense to survive a number of October tests. They just need enough reliable options for Craig Counsell to navigate the biggest moments. There are some encouraging signs, but with the postseason just days away, this group still feels like a potential problem waiting to happen.

Are you optimistic about the Cubs right now?

Are you optimistic about the Cubs right now?

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