How Long Until Jed Hoyer’s Job is at Risk?

Until people stop coming to Wrigley.

I think it's pretty clear that Jed is viewing contention on a longer time horizon than the fanbase, and it's pretty clear PTR is fine with that.

The team was expected to win ~85 games coming into the year, and they're tracking towards ~79 at the moment.  The standard deviation on preseason projections is in the 6-8 game range.  This season has been a disappointment, but a pretty normal sized one.  We're talking like a 20th percentile outcome?

That's not to excuse the underperformance thus far, but it is to put its likelihood in perspective.  Jed and the Cubs showed very little urgency this winter, and I remember specifically a Carter interview at the Winter Meetings where he mentioned not wanting to block all the kids.  I imagine there was not a ton of additional payroll available, but if Jed's rolling a 1 or a 2 was going to cost Jed his job we would have skimmed more off the farm to bolster the team without majorly impacting payroll.  Instead he stuck to his guns, got some left tail outcomes on a couple of positions that already didn't look great to begin with, and here we are.  

It's been mentioned that Jed's contract runs through next year, I'd guess that next year needs to go well for him to earn an extension, but that there's very little chance he's outright fired.

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I think it's pretty clear that Jed is viewing contention on a longer time horizon than the fanbase, and it's pretty clear PTR is fine with that.

It's been mentioned that Jed's contract runs through next year, I'd guess that next year needs to go well for him to earn an extension, but that there's very little chance he's outright fired.

I think depending on how you think about 'viewing contention on a longer time horizon' these thoughts are potentially in tension, but I think the practical upshot is correct.  IMO, there's little chance of Jed being fired before the end of his contract next year unless something dramatic happens.  Where I think there's some nuance is that Jed pretty clearly created a window that only barely outlasts his current deal, if his plan was simply to be playable until the farm system became a perpetual motion machine of winning talent I doubt he would've created the payroll cliff that he did.  

I also think that if ownership were pleased with the trajectory, they would be looking into extending him at a minimum to see out that window(and practically, probably longer).  If this season doesn't have a pretty significant turnaround, then I suspect next year becomes as must-win for Jed as seasons go. Because while Ricketts has a lot of patience, if you can't get into the playoffs and/or past the ".500ish" level of results on the timeframe that Jed's been given, I think you probably pull the plug, and let someone new retool with all the rentals that make the team prime for a remodel after 2025.

They obviously have had '25 targeted as the 'arrival' of their formidable stream of prospects.   The hope being they could be a piecemeal playoff team this year, one not married to too many veterans who would dam the river of talent on its way.